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Sport Obermeyer
• Sport Obermeyer – a high end fashion skiwear designer and
merchandising company
• Commitment for producing line of fashion skiwear for 1993-94
Increase profits
Obersport Ltd.
Alpine Ltd
• Hong Kong
• Macau Other subcontractors
• China
Lo Village
COMPANY
NETWORK:
Recently, a number of
contractual ventures
were added and a new
complex in Lo Village
Guangdong China
Product and Segmentation:
Product Variety:
Obermeyer Product
Fashion Ski Apparel
• Parkas, Vests, Sweater, ski suits, shells, ski pants, turtlenecks and
accessories
• Parkas : Most critical design
• Products offered in five different genders (Men, Women, Boys, Girls,
Preschoolers)
• Company segmented each gender market according to price, type of
skier and fashion forwardness.
• U.S. Skiwear estimated sales in 1992: US$ 32.8 million
• Obermeyer’s Share:
• 45% of children skiwear mkt.
• 11% of adult skiwear mkt.
• Obermeyer would contract with fabric supplier for specified amount of fabric each
month
• Lead time taken into account for all materials
• Obersport: Joint venture between Sport Obermeyer and its Hong Kong partner.
Obermeyer’s Denver
Cost $5 per parka
Warehouse
orders were finally shipped via
small-package carriers such as
UPS (United Parcel Service) at the
end of August 1993
Retailers
Retailers
Delivering products by
Specialty Ski-
Retail Stores Most sales occur between
early September September and January
Sport Department
Consumers
Obermeyer Stores
Direct Mail
Retailers
Production Options
• Hong Kong • Mainland (Guangdong, Lo Village)
– More expensive – Cheaper
– Smaller lot sizes – Larger lot sizes
– Faster – Slower
– More flexible – Less flexible
Obersport Limited
Obersport Ltd
• To coordinate production of sport obermeyer’s
products in Far East
• Responsible for fabric and component sourcing
Forecasts
800 Ski
Product Forecast Retailers Retailers
Sketches Committee order in
Apr-Jun 93
Sales and Replenishing Process:
Labour $0.78
Transportation within China and $2.00
China overhead
China quota, obersport profit and $9.90
overhead
Total $42.68
Parkas
• Wally studied the committee forecasts
• Estimated the early production of each style
• Demand and forecasts for last year analyzed
• Standard deviation of demand was twice the standard
deviation of buying committee forecasts
• Forecast distribution for each style as a normal random
variable
With mean equal to average of committee forecasts
Standard deviation twice of committee forecasts
COMMITTEE FORECAST- 10 STYLES OF WOMEN’S
PARKA – Individual Forecast
Totals 20,000
Parkas
• Wally also had to decide the location for production for each
style ( Hong Kong or China)
• It was planned this year to produce 50% of products in China
• There was risk of managing production and inventory in
longer term
• The larger minimum order size of China limits the capacity of
company’s ability to increase the range of products
• China trade relationship with USA - Risky
COMPARISON OF OPERATIONS IN
HONG KONG AND CHINA
Strengths: Weaknesses:
• History of product innovation • Excessively long lead times,
• Buying committee forecasts balance though this is the nature of the
expectations industry
• Experienced leadership and focused • Minimum order quantity at
management team Chinese manufacturers
• Deliver products to retailers early in • Leftover unpopular merchandise
the selling season at end of selling period.
• Variety of SKUs, with color/size • Stock outs on most popular
product diversity items during peak selling
• Use of greige fabric delays product
differentiation
Opportunities: Threats:
• Aggressive marketing campaign • Competition from value-
• Expanding sales to European/ oriented sellers like Columbia.
South American markets • Regulatory limits of goods that
• Sponsorship of major winter can be imported into US.
sports events
Case Discussion Questions
improve performance?
STANDARD FIRST-PERIOD
MEAN OF DEVIATION PRODUCTION QUANTITY
DEMAND OF DEMAND
STYLE
Max (0, k )
Gail 1017 388 1017
Isis 1042 646 1042
Entice 1358 496 1358
Assault 2525 680 2525
Teri 1100 762 1100
Electra 2150 807 2150
Stephanie 1113 1048 1113
Seduced 4017 1113 4017
Anita 3296 2094 3296
Daphne 2383 1394 2383
Sum---> 20,001 20,001 <---Sum
Too much!
Solving Wally’s Sample Problem (with k=2)
DETERMINING SPECULATIVE PRODUCTION QUANTITIES
k =2 <---Find value of k that makes last column sum to about 10,000
STANDARD FIRST-PERIOD
MEAN OF DEVIATION PRODUCTION QUANTITY
DEMAND OF DEMAND
STYLE
Max (0, k )
Gail 1017 388 241
Isis 1042 646 0
Entice 1358 496 366
Assault 2525 680 1165
Teri 1100 762 0
Electra 2150 807 536
Stephanie 1113 1048 0
Seduced 4017 1113 1791
Anita 3296 2094 0
Daphne 2383 1394 0
Sum---> 20,001 4,099 <---Sum
Too little!
Solving Wally’s Sample Problem (with k=1)
DETERMINING SPECULATIVE PRODUCTION QUANTITIES
k =1 <---Find value of k that makes last column sum to about 10,000
STANDARD FIRST-PERIOD
MEAN OF DEVIATION PRODUCTION QUANTITY
DEMAND OF DEMAND
STYLE
Max (0, k )
Gail 1017 388 629
Isis 1042 646 396
Entice 1358 496 862
Assault 2525 680 1845
Teri 1100 762 338
Electra 2150 807 1343
Stephanie 1113 1048 65
Seduced 4017 1113 2904
Anita 3296 2094 1202
Daphne 2383 1394 989
Sum---> 20,001 10,573 <---Sum
Too much!
Solving Wally’s Sample Problem (with k=1.0608)
DETERMINING SPECULATIVE PRODUCTION QUANTITIES
k = 1.0608 <---Find value of k that makes last column sum to about 10,000
STANDARD FIRST-PERIOD
MEAN OF DEVIATION PRODUCTION QUANTITY
DEMAND OF DEMAND
STYLE
Max (0, k )
Gail 1017 388 605
Isis 1042 646 357
Entice 1358 496 832
Assault 2525 680 1804
Teri 1100 762 292
Electra 2150 807 1294
Stephanie 1113 1048 1
Seduced 4017 1113 2836
Anita 3296 2094 1075
Daphne 2383 1394 904
Sum---> 20,001 10,000 <---Sum
Just right!
Question 1. and 3. Comparison units of each style
when produced in HK and China
Differences between production in HK and China
• Inventory
• Total Cost
• Operation Time
• Quality (% Repair)
Question 1. and 3. The differences between
production in HK and China
Question 1 (Alternative approach)
• We have three types of products:
-Low risk: risk % between 0 and 40
-Medium risk: risk % between 41 and 59
-High risk: risk % above 60
• To minimize the risk, we decided to order the
following quantity:
-Low risk items: 75% of the average forecast
-Medium risk items: 50% of the average forecast
-High risk items: 25% of the average forecast
Question 1 (Alternative approach)
2. Can you come up a measure of risk
associated with an your ordering
policy? This measure should be
quantifiable.
What’s the result if there is
demand forecasting uncertainty?
Standard Standard
deviation deviation
Demand Average
How we assess
forecast certainty?
“Risk –based
production planning”
Seattle
Hong Kong
Establish Distribution
Center in Seattle without
through Denver
OPERATIONAL Changes:
INFORMATION SYSTEM
RECOMMENDATION #3 (continued)
From the items with long lead times, increase the amount of
“safety stock” inventory for those items that are inexpensive
(e.g., buttons) and/or shared by many parkas (e.g., black fabric).
RECOMMENDATION #5 (continued)