Environmental And Financial Analysis In

Euro 3 and Euro 4 Gasoline Passenger Cars.

Project supervisors Project Members

Er. Laxman Palikhel Ashok Aryal
Er. Khem Gyanwali Himal Gautam
Sujan Bhattarai
Sunny Deshar
 Objectives
Main Objectives

 To perform environmental and financial analysis of Euro 3 and Euro 4 vehicles

Specific Objectives

 To find out and compare the global warming impacts of tail pipe emission due
to Euro 3 and Euro 4 gasoline passenger cars.

 To find out and compare the financial load on consumer on switching from Euro
3 and Euro 4 vehicles models.
 Euro Emission Standards

  Defines the acceptable limits for exhaust emissions of new vehicles sold
in EU member states.

 Are defined in a series of European Union directives staging the progressive

introduction of increasingly stringent standards.

 Are typically referred to as Euro 1, Euro 2, Euro 3, Euro 4 and Euro 5 for
Light Duty Vehicle standards.
 Euro 3 And Euro 4(Gasoline)

Euro 3 emission limits Euro 4 emission limits

 CO - 2.3 g/km  CO - 1.0 g/km

 HC - 0.20 g/km  HC - 0.10 g/km
 NOx - 0.15  NOx - 0.08
 PM (Particulate  PM (Particulate matter)
matter) - no limit - no limit
 Methodology
PROBLEM FORMULATION

LITERATURE REVIEW

QUESTIONNARIE DEVELOPMENT

SAMPLE SIZE DETERMINATION

FIELD SURVEY

DATA COMPILATION

ANALYSIS, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION

REPORTWRITING, SUBMISSION AND FINAL PRESENTATION

 Vehicles considered in this research
 Models of Kia motors:
 Kia Picanto
 Kia Sportage

 Models of Hyundai motors:

 Hyundai EON
 Hyundai i10

 Euro 3 and Euro 4 versions of each models.

 Data collection
Collection of fuel consumption data
Population of selected vehicle models was
determined

Required Sample size was determined

Annual average fuel consumption for the samples

was determined (assuming a vehicle runs 15000
km in 1 year)
 Sample size determination
 Formula used by Krejcie & Morgan in their 1970 article
“Determining Sample Size for Research Activities” was used:

Where,
n = required sample size
ᵡ2 = Chi square for the specified confidence level at 1 degree of
freedom
N = Population size
ME = Desired Marginal error (expressed as a proportion)
Confidence interval 95% and Margin of error 10%

Sample size : Picanto=85, Sportage=81, EON= 84,i10=90

 Collection of fuel consumption data
 Through inspection of  Through mileage provided by
different samples annual the respective manufacturer
average fuel consumption for for different vehicles
different vehicle models under
consideration was listed

Annual average fuel Annual average fuel

Vehicle consumption(liters) Vehicle consumption(liters)

S.N
S.N model
model Euro 3 Euro 4
Euro 3 Euro 4
Kia
1 Kia Picanto 1500 - 1 - 1154
Picanto
Kia Kia
2 2155 - 2 - 1250
Sportage Sportage
3 Hyundai i10 - 1506 Hyundai
3 1667 -
i10
Hyundai
4 - 1259 Hyundai
EON 4 1500 -
EON
 Calculation of emission
IPCC (2006) allows CH4 and N2O emissions from fossil fuel combustion to be estimated
as:
EFC ,y = σ (Fuela,y ∗ EFa )

Where
EFC,y= Net CO2-e emissions of fuel consumption in year y; tCO2-e
Fuela,y= Amount of fuel of type a consumed in year y; terajoule
Efa = Emission factor of fuel type a; tCO2-e
Fuela,y = Litersfuel a ,y ∗ DensityFuel a ∗ NCVFuel a ÷ 106

Where
Liters fuel a,y= Quantity of fuel type a consumed in year y; liter
Density fuel a = Density of fuel type a; kg/ltr
NCVa = Net calorific value of fuel type a; TJ/Gg

Density Fuel a = 0.7407 Kg/l,

NCVa = 44.75 GJ/tone,
Efa = 69.3 tCO2-e
 Calculation of emission from fuel consumption

vehicle model
Densityfuel NCVfuel Fuela,y Efa Efc,y
S.N (emission Litresa,y
(kg/lit) (TJ/Gg) (TJ) (tCO2e/TJ) (tCO2-e)
standard)
Kia PICANTO
1 1500 0.7407 44.3 0.0492195 69.3 3.42
(Euro 3)
Kia Picanto
2 1154 0.7407 44.3 0.0378662 69.3 2.63
(Euro 4)
Kia Sportage
3 2155 0.7407 44.3 0.070712 69.3 4.91
( Euro 3)
Kia Sportage
4 1250 0.7407 44.3 0.0410163 69.3 2.85
( Euro 4)
Hyundai EON
5 1500 0.7407 44.3 0.0492195 69.3 3.42
(Euro 3)
Hyundai EON
6 1259 0.7407 44.3 0.0413116 69.3 2.87
(Euro 4)
Hyundai i10
7 1667 0.7407 44.3 0.0546993 69.3 3.80
(Euro 3)
Hyundai i10
8 1506 0.7407 44.3 0.0494164 69.3 3.43
(Euro 4)
 Environmental Analysis

1.From the viewpoint of single vehicle under consideration (1year)

Difference of tCO2-e for Euro 3 and Euro 4 models in 1 year

Emission(tCO2-e )
S.N Vehicle model Difference
Euro 3 Euro 4
1 KIA Picanto 3.42 2.63 0.79
2 KIA Sportage 4.91 2.85 2.06

3 Hyundai EON 3.42 2.87 0.55

4 Hyundai i10 3.8 3.43 0.37

From the viewpoint of population of vehicles under considered (1 Year)

Emission for total population of models

Difference Total
S.N Vehicle model Population
(tCO2-e) (tCO2-e)
1 KIA picanto 0.79 750 592.5
2 KIA sportage 2.06 500 1030
3 Hyundai EON 0.55 668 367.4
4 Hyundai i10 0.37 1359 502.83
2.From the viewpoint of total gasoline vehicles in Bagmati zone(1 year)
Assumptions
Every gasoline vehicles registered in Bagmati zone are the Euro 3 model of one of
the vehicle models considered

Then these models are replaced by respective Euro 4 models.

45,000.00
Emission
40,000.00
35,000.00 (tCO2-e )
Vehicle Total Total
30,000.00 S.N Population Difference
model (Euro 3) (Euro 4)
25,000.00
Euro 3 Euro 4
20,000.00
15,000.00 Euro 4
10,000.00 Euro 3 KIA 28,717.7
1 3.42 2.63 8397 22,084.11 6,633.63
5,000.00 picanto 4
0.00
KIA 41,229.2
2 4.91 2.85 8397 23,931.45 17,297.82
sportage 7

Hyundai 28,717.7
3 3.42 2.87 8397 24,099.39 4,618.35
EON 4

Hyundai 31,908.6
4 3.8 3.43 8397 28,801.71 3,106.89
i10 0
3. From the viewpoint of total gasoline vehicles in Bagmati zone(20
years)
Steps

Considering 2013/14 as base year, the number of vehicles for next twenty years was
estimated using crystal ball predictor.

Total vehicles registered are considered as Euro 3 models.

Cumulative population for each year until 20 years was calculated.

Cumulative emission for each year from Euro 3 models was calculated.

Cumulative emission for each year from Euro 4 models was calculated.

Following the above steps, a calculator was prepared on Microsoft excel and also the plots
were obtained.
 Calculation of emission in 20 years for Kia Picanto
Single Single
year population Total Euro 3 Total Euro 4 Difference
Euro 3 Euro 4

1 16480 3.42 2.63 56363 43343.33 13019

2 25358 3.42 2.63 143087 110034.8 46072
3 35030 3.42 2.63 262889 202163.2 106798
4 45496 3.42 2.63 418485 321817.5 203465
5 56756 3.42 2.63 612592 471086.5 344970
Sample Sheet:
6 68811 3.42 2.63 847925 652059.2 540836
7 81660 3.42 2.63 1127201 866824.4 801213
8 95303 3.42 2.63 1453137 1117471 1136879
9 109740 3.42 2.63 1828449 1406088 1559240
10 124972 3.42 2.63 2255853 1734764 2080329
11 140998 3.42 2.63 2738065 2105588 2712806
12 157818 3.42 2.63 3277803 2520649 3469959
13 175432 3.42 2.63 3877781 2982036 4365704
14 193841 3.42 2.63 4540717 3491838 5414583
15 213044 3.42 2.63 5269327 4052143 6631767
16 233041 3.42 2.63 6066327 4665041 8033053
17 253832 3.42 2.63 6934434 5332620 9634867
18 275418 3.42 2.63 7876364 6056970 11454261
19 297798 3.42 2.63 8894833 6840178 13508915
20 320972 3.42 2.63 9992557 7684335 15817137
    total   68474189 52657052 87875873
 Plots of cumulative emissions of Euro 3 and Euro 4 models in years time
16000000
12000000
14000000
10000000
12000000
8000000 10000000
8000000
6000000 Euro 3
6000000 Euro 4
4000000 Euro 3
Euro 4 4000000
2000000 2000000
0
0

Kia Picanto Kia Sportage

12000000 12000000

10000000 10000000

8000000 8000000

6000000 6000000
Euro 3 Euro 3(BAU)
4000000 Euro 4 4000000 Euro 4

2000000 2000000

0 0

Hyundai EON Hyundai i10

 Clean Development Mechanism
1 ton of carbon dioxide equivalent corresponds to 1 carbon credit, total carbon
credits in 20 years span for each vehicle models

S.N Vehicle model Reduction(tCO2-e) CER

1 KIA Picanto 87,875,873.21 87,875,873.21

2 KIA Sportage 229,144,682.03 229,144,682.03

3 Hyundai EON 61,179,405.40 61,179,405.40

4 Hyundai i10 41,157,054.54 41,157,054.54

CDM, Baseline and Additionality

Fulfills baseline

Doesn’t fulfill additionality

 Financial Analysis
Data Collection
Price of vehicles
S.N vehicle Manufacturer Vehicle Model Emission standard Price(RS)
1 Kia Picanto Euro 3 2,850,000.00
2 Kia Picanto Euro 4 3,350,000.00
3 Kia Sportage Euro 3 6,750,000.00
4 Kia Sportage Euro 4 7,250,000.00
5 Hyundai EON Euro 3 1,756,000.00
6 Hyundai EON Euro 4 1,856,000.00
7 Hyundai i10 Euro 3 2,276,000.00
8 Hyundai i10 Euro 4 2,576,000.00

Cost of fuel

Maintenance Cost

NPVs of each models were calculated with 20 years projection of fuel price and
maintenance costs
 Projection of fuel price
Using historical data of past 10 years fuel price was projected for next 20 years using
crystal ball predictor
Years Forecast

11 103.16
183.18
12 100.10

13 98.85
149.10
14 98.33

15 98.12
115.02
16 98.03

17 98.00
80.94
18 97.98

19 97.98
46.87
20 97.97

21 97.97
12.79
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 22 97.97

23 97.97

24 97.97

25 97.97
Historical Fitted Forecast
Lower: 5% Upper: 95% 26 97.97

27 97.97

28 97.97

29 97.97

30 97.97
 Maintenance Cost Projection
Projection of inflation rate

Projection of the inflation rate was carried out

Fit and Fit and
using crystal ball predictor considering past Years Years
Forecast Forecast
34 years record
2015 8.12 2025 7.75

2016 8.04 2026 7.76

2017 8.07 2027 7.67

2018 8.06 2028 7.87

2019 8.09 2029 8.10

2020 7.64 2030 8.32

2021 7.63 2031 8.47

2022 7.63 2032 8.64

2023 7.67 2033 8.80

2024 7.72 2034 8.83

Fuel Consumption Price Calculations

Projected fuel prices were multiplied with annual fuel

consumption to give annual fuel cost for each of the vehicle models
considered.
Maintenance Cost Calculation

Using the annual inflation rate cost of engine oil, air filter, oil
filter, climate control oil filter, spark plug, brake/clutch, fuel tank air
filter and fuel filter for next 20 years for each vehicles considered
was calculated.
 Calculation of NPVs
A cash flow diagram was prepared in Microsoft Excel Spreadsheet

The initial costs, operation and maintenance costs for next 20 years were used
as cash outflows.

Cash outflow was considered positive and inflow as negative

Using this cash flow table NPVs of Euro 3 and Euro 4 models of the vehicles
were calculated

S.N Name of vehicle NPV(NRs)

    Euro 3 Euro 4
1 Picanto 3,927,117.19 4,132,304.70
2 Sportage 8,498,314.83 8,276,704.03
3 EON 2,970,833.81 2,884,767.79
4 i10 3,598,062.60 3,750,705.52
 Comparisons of NPVs
Difference of NPVs between Euro 3 and Euro 4 models was calculated

S.N Name of vehicle Differences(NRs)

Negative difference = gain
1 Picanto 205,187.51
Positive difference = loss
2 Sportage -221,610.80
3 EON -86,066.02
4 i10 152,642.92

The difference of NPVs of Kia Sportage and Hyundai EON is negative.

In case of Kia Picanto and Hyundai EON the difference is positive.

Benefits in terms of health, standard of living, balance of ecosystem and climate

change due to reduction in vehicular emissions have not been considered.
 Conclusion
 There seems to be a notable difference in the amount of emissions of Euro 3
and Euro 4 vehicle models

 Financially, from the perspective of consumers Kia Sportage and Hyundai

EON showed gains while Kia Picanto and Hyundai i10 showed losses without
considering the benefits due to emission reductions.

Limitations in context of Nepal

 Change of emission Standards only cannot reduce the pollution due
to vehicular emission.

Necessary conditions

 Fuel quality that comply with the implemented emission standards

 Better road conditions

 Proper and regular maintenance

 Recommendations

Our entire research was based on the emission due to fuel

consumed.

 However, if the exact tailpipe emission could be

determined by using better technologies, the research would
likely to be more reliable.

 Also, if the desired quality of the fuel is imported and with

the improved road condition, the effectiveness will boost.
Thank you