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Put differently, the variable cannot take all values in any continuous range.
A Poisson distribution can be used to
estimate how likely it is that something For example,
will happen "X" number of times. if the average number of people who
rent movies on a Friday night at a
single video store location is 400.
A Poisson distribution can answer
such questions as……
"What is the probability that more than 600 people will rent movies?"
One of the most famous historical, practical uses of the Poisson distribution was
estimating the annual number of Prussian cavalry soldiers killed due to horse-
kicks.
Other modern examples include estimating the number of car crashes in a city of
a given size.
History of the
Poisson Distribution!!
Like many statistical tools and probability metrics, the Poisson Distribution was
originally applied to the world of GAMBLING.
Number of meteors seen can be modeled as a Poisson distribution because the meteors are independent,
the average number of meteors per hour is constant
Let’s expect, 5 meteors per hour on average or 1 every 12 minutes, here λ=5
Implication
Other conditions:
3. There must be some interval of time
4. Proportionality
Given the above conditions, then k is a random variable, and the distribution of k
is a Poisson Distribution.
Calculating the Poisson Distribution
Where:
● The symbol “!” is a factorial.
● μ (the expected number of occurrences) is sometimes written as λ. Sometimes called
the event rate or rate parameter.
Example question
The average number of major storms in your city is 2 per year. What is the probability that
exactly 3 storms will hit your city next year?
Step 1: Figure out the components you need to put into the equation.
As you can probably tell, you can calculate the Poisson distribution manually but that
would take an extraordinary amount of time unless you have a simple set of data. The usual
way to calculate a Poisson distribution in real life situations is with software like IBM SPSS.
Business Uses of Poisson
Distribution!!
1) Calls per Hour at a Call Center