STATISTICS AND

PROBABILITY
ALBERT O. ALMINE, CPA
TEACHER
Events and Probability
An event is a subset of a sample space
S. In statistics, it is major interest to
find the probability of events.
You have learned in the lower levels that an event can be named
using any capital letter, say A. In the experiment of tossing two
coins, the different events are sets A, B, C, D given below.
 
A = {H}, A ⊂ S
 
B = {T}, B ⊂ S
 
C = {H. T}, C ⊂ S
 
D = { }, D ⊂ S
Set A and B both contain one and only one sample point. They are
called simple events.
Set C, which consists of the entire sample space S, may also be
considerate an event.
It is impossible to have an event that contains no sample point. This
event is called an empty set or a null set, denoted by the symbols { } or
Ø. In the example, set D is a null event.
The chance that a particular event will occur is measured by assigning
numerical value or weight known as probability. Probability is a
measure of how likely a particular event will occur.
There are three approaches in the
computation of probability. These are

THEORETICAL OR A THE EXPERIMENTAL OR A THE SUBJECTIVE

PRIORI APPROACH POSTERIORI APPROACH APPROACH.
In the theoretical approach, models are set up to find the
probability by calculation. In the experimental approach,
experiments are performed repeatedly to determine the
probability of certain events. In the subjective approach, the
probability of an event is assigned based on intuition, belief,
knowledge, and experience.
 
Computations in this book will be done using the a priori approach. By this
approach, if an experiment can result in any of N equally likely outcomes, and if
exactly n of these outcomes correspond to event A, then the probability of event
A is given by
(1.1)
Where n is the number of sample points in event A and N is the number of
sample points n the entire sample space S.
Note that the probability of any event A may be
between 0 and 1. Thus, 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1. A probability
equal to 0 means that it is impossible for the event to
happen, while a probability equal to 1 means the event
is certain to happen. On the other hand, as the
probability gets closer to 1, the event becomes more
likely to happen.
 
For the event Ø that contains no element, n = 0 and P(Ø) = = 0.
Thus, the probability of a null set or null event is 0. For a sample
space S that contains all the possible outcomes such that n = N, then
P(S) = = 1.
Thus, the probability of obtaining the entire sample space S is 1.
Example 1.2
1. In tossing two coins, what is the probability of getting exactly one head?
2. In tossing a die, what is the probability of obtaining a number less than 5?
3. In tossing a coin and a die, what is the probability of getting a head?
4. In choosing a card from an ordinary deck of playing cards, what is the
probability of getting a card from the heart suit?
5. A bag contains 7 blue balls and 3 red balls. If a ball will be picked at
random, what is the probability of picking a red ball?
 Solution.
1.  Recall that the sample space S for tossing two coins is given by S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}.
Let A be the event of getting exactly one head.

It follows that A = {HT, TH}. Thus, P(A) = = =

 Solution
2.
  For the experiment involving tossing a die, recall that the sample space

is S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.

Let A be the event of obtaining number less than 5, thus, A = {1, 2, 3, 4}.

Therefore, P(A) = = =
Solution
3.
  From the answer in item of example 1.1, the number N of the

sample space of the event of tossing coin and a die is 12. Also,
among the elements of the sample space, the event containing the
elements that will give a head consists of the sample points H1,
H2, H3, H4, H5, and H6. Thus, the event of interest contains 6
sample points.
Hence, n = 6 and P(A) = = =
 Solution
  You have learned in item 4 of example 1.1 that each card in the deck is
4.
a possible outcome in the experiment of choosing a card. Therefore, the
count of the sample space is N = 52. This time, you are interested in
getting a card form the heart suit. The set of heart cards contains 13
elements, giving n = 13.

Thus, P(A) = = =
 Solution
  The bag contains a total of 10 balls. The event of interest A is the event
5.
containing 3 red balls.

Thus, P(A) = =
IS THERE ANY QUESTION?