Professional Documents
Culture Documents
indicators
Comparisons over time
•GDP
refers to the total market value of all final goods and services produced within
an economy over one year.
- “Final”: includes cost of all intermediate goods and raw materials
- “Produced”: value of output, not input unsold goods produced in that year will also be
part of the economy’s GDP
- The higher the value of GDP, the greater the level of economic activity
- If GDP increases from one year to another, the economy has expanded
- Calculation of GDP:
1. Output approach (direct): Nominal GDP (GDPt) = , where t represents the year, Pt and Qt
represents prices and quantities of all final g/s produced in that year
2. Expenditure approach (indirect): GDP = C+ I + G + X - M
3. Income approach (indirect): GDP = W + R + I + P
GDP Vs GNP
• GDP: what is produced within the boundaries of the economy
• GNP: who produced the g/s. Formal definition: the market value of all final g/s
produced by (factors of production owned by) the citizens of the economy over a
year
• GNPt = GDPt + [net factor (property) income from abroad]t, where
net factor (property) income from abroad = factor (property) income from
abroad - factor (property) income to abroad
Subtract all incomes earned by fop earned in the economy that is due to foreign owners
Add all income earned overseas by fop that is due to local owners
Nominal GDP vs Real GDP (Over time)
•• Recall:
nominal GDP in each year is valued at the prices prevailing within each year when
measuring changes in GDP over time, need to use real GDP so that prices used to value output of
each year are those that prevailed in an arbitrarily selected base year*
• The base year can be either one of the 2 years or any year before or after the years in question
• Real GDPt = , where t represents current year, o represents base year; Po represents prices
prevailing in base year and Qt represents quantities of all final g/s produced in current year
• Measuring real GDP change over a year:
Q1: Does the average American earn more than the average Hong Konger? Yes
Q2: Does the average American have a higher purchasing power and therefore
higher material SOL than the average Hong Konger? Not necessarily
Per capita PPP GDP
• Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) takes into account price differences
• First, PPP exchange rate is calculated based on the average prices of a large
basket of goods (there are limitations to this but not important to know them)
• Second, the GDPs of each country are converted to a common currency eg USD
• Third, PPP GDP is divided by the populations of each respective country to give
per capita PPP GDP
• Lets compare the data again:
Introduction:
• Strong economic performance = able to achieve the 4 macroeconomic objectives to a
large extent
• GDP and BOP data examine how well these objectives have been achieved, primarily that
of economic growth, with potential links to other indicators such as employment and
inflation
Main:
• How GDP is used to measure economic performance
• How BOP is used to measure economic performance
Conclusion:
• BOP data can be used to gauge the performance of the external sectors of the economy
• Since BOP data feeds into the components used to compute GDP data, the latter can
then be used as a measure of an economy’s overall performance
GDP Data
Introduction:
• GDP and BOP data help to infer the standard of living of a country over time
• GDP and BOP data sufficient as baseline indicators, but alternative interpretation and measures are
needed to form a more holistic view of the economic performance and SOL in Singapore
Main:
• Thesis vs Anti-thesis: GDP and BOP as measure of ec perf
Basis for assessment of how well GDP and BOP measure ec perf: Nature of SG
While these data are well recognised to provide a robust measurement of economic performance, there exist
situations which call for further examination of their underlying causes or consequences
• Thesis vs Anti-thesis: GDP and BOP as measure of SOL (1-2 MWB + 1 NMWB)
SOL refers to the level of well-being of a typical individual/HH within SG
MWB: qty of g/s avail to an individual in a particular year
NMWB: qly of life eg environmental and socio-economic factors
Higher SOL = MWB + NMWB improve
Conclusion: Stand
GDP as measure of economic performance
Thesis: GDP is a good measure of economic performance in SG
• From (a), GDP is a commonly used indicator of economic performance in terms of
EG and its effect on Nt
• This is based on assumption that real GDP is used instead of nominal GDP data
better reflection of economic performance as it eliminates the effects of inflation
Anti-thesis: Limitations of GDP in measuring economic performance
• Increase in GDP implies economic growth
• Rapid rate of economic growth rate of obsolescence of production methods,
machinery and labour skills increase as well structural unemployment and
other negative consequences like widening income gap
• Trade-off between economic growth and structural unemployment
BOP as measure of economic performance
Thesis: BOP is a good measure of economic performance in SG
• Assume in 2007 SG BOP surplus in the CA was due to BOT surplus Since BOT is a key indicator
of X competitiveness, BOP is a good measure of the strength of the external sector of the
economy
• [EV]: This is especially so given SG's BOT figures are achieved without assistance from
distortionary effects of protectionist measures or currency manipulation in an attempt to
undervalue the S$ to boost NX
• Positive FDI figures also show investor confidence in stability of the economic performance in
terms of price stability and EG
[EV]: SG’s GC has been worsening over the past decade despite increases in real GDP per capita*.
Globalisation and policies adopted in pursuit of EG widening income gap. Lower-skilled
workers face structural Unt/depressed wages as influx of FW are in direct competition for their
jobs vs High-skilled workers see an increase in the demand for skills and thus higher wages.
Hence, SOL may not have increased for the majority despite increase in GDP
GDP as a measure of SOL
• In comparison to BOP, real GDP per capita is a more useful and complete
indicator of economic perf and MWB of SG
• To accurately measure SOL, GDP figure should be complemented with the use of
alternative indicators eg HDI, which informs abt NMWB
Specimen Paper CSQ2
(a) What was the approximate change in the value of the Russian rouble in
terms of US dollars between 25 September 2014 and 23 March 2015? [2]
• The
rouble depreciated by approximately 55%
• X 100% = 54.7% 55%
(b) Explain, with the help of a supply and demand diagram:
(i) How the collapse of the Russian rouble resulted in a decline in the value of
the currencies of the ex-Soviet republics (Belarus, Azerbaijan and Moldova) [2]
• The depreciation of the Russian rouble caused Russian exports to be cheaper in terms of FC, thus
increasing the qtydd of exports from Russia as can be seen from Extract 4 (“suddenly cheaper
Russian-made goods increases the imports by ex-Soviet republics, eroding their trade balances”).
Consumers in these ex-soviet republics will sell their domestic currency (ex-soviet currencies) in
exchange for the Russian rouble in order to buy the exports from Russia. As such the supply of
the ex-soviet currencies will increase from S0 to S1 as shown in Figure 1, thereby causing the
currencies of the ex-soviet republics to depreciate from E0 to E1 against the Russian rouble
(b) Explain, with the help of a supply and demand diagram:
(i) How the collapse of the Russian rouble resulted in a decline in the value of
the currencies of the ex-Soviet republics (Belarus, Azerbaijan and Moldova) [2]
Alternative answer:
• The depreciation of the Russian rouble caused imports into Russia to be more expensive in
terms of Russian rouble, thus decreasing the qtydd for imports. Since consumers in Russia
buy less imports now, they will buy less of the ex-soviet currencies causing the demand for
the ex-soviet currencies to fall from D0 to D1, leading to a fall in the value of their currencies
from E0 to E1
(b) Explain, with the help of a supply and demand diagram:
(ii) How the rise in Ukraine’s benchmark rate of interest is expected to affect
the value of Ukraine’s currency [2]
Evaluation:
1. Extent of the problem depends on the country’s credit rating
• If a country has high credit rating, it is less likely for it to experience a loss in investors’
confidence in its currency when the currency depreciates. Hence, the fall in I may not be to a large
extent
2. Depends on the nature of the economy
• Small open economies tend to be more import-reliant due to a lack of natural resources. Hence,
they will have to import more factor inputs than large and resource-rich economies. Therefore,
imported inflation due to depreciation is a greater concern for small open economies vs large
resource rich economies which can benefit from depreciation as their exports become more price
competitive instead
• Furthermore, small economies have small domestic market highly dependent on foreign
investment for growth since the base of indigenous investment cannot bring about sustained
growth. Thus, a fall in investment due to depreciation can be more serious for these economies
(d) Discuss whether the problems faced by economies experiencing
depreciation in their currencies are more serious than those faced by economies
experiencing appreciation in their currencies [8]
Evaluation:
3. Appreciation can send a signal to potential investors that the economy is doing
well, hence due to the positive outlook of the economy, the increase in investment
may be able to offset the fall in (X-M), thus the problems of appreciation might be
less severe than those of depreciation
(e) Discuss why the US Federal Reserve decided to adopt a different monetary
policy from that adopted by the ECB and the BoJ, and consider which
approach is more likely to be successful [10]
Evaluation:
• The choice of MP implemented by the CB depends on the prevailing ec condition
of the country.
• In the US, a steadily growing economy due to recovering consumers/investors’
expectations and previously low i/r to stimulate the economy will mean that a
reversal of the policy could be effective
• On the other hand, the implementation of QE in Japan and Eurozone implies the
ineffectiveness of conventional MP as the economy may be in a liquidity trap
where there is little/no room for i/r to fall further. As such, QE is unlikely to bring
about significant change in AD and EG and hence the policy is less successful in
Japan and Eurozone
(e) Discuss why the US Federal Reserve decided to adopt a different monetary
policy from that adopted by the ECB and the BoJ, and consider which
approach is more likely to be successful [10]
Cont’d Evaluation:
• The interest elasticity of investment affects the degree of success of the different
MP. If investment is interest inelastic, the change in i/r will result in a less than
proportionate change in the level of investment i/r policy ineffective
• The investment level in the US might be relatively interest elastic since
indigenous investment is likely to take up the bulk of investment level (large size
of US population) level of investment will be more responsive to the change in
i/r, rendering the i/r policy more successful
• Also, while the decrease in i/r will bring about a depreciation which may help to
stimulate NX, with 18 countries in the Eurozone sharing the same currency, these
countries have effectively lost the ability to manipulate their e/r to stimulate NX.
(e) Discuss why the US Federal Reserve decided to adopt a different monetary
policy from that adopted by the ECB and the BoJ, and consider which
approach is more likely to be successful [10]
Cont’d Evaluation:
• Besides, due to the large number of countries in the Eurozone, a common i/r
policy may not help since different countries may face different and varying
degrees of problem decrease in i/r ineffective
• Therefore, the i/r policy US Federal Reserve adopted might be more successful
compared to ECB and BoJ
Internal and external
economies and diseconomies
of scale
IEOS and IDOS
• IEOS allow firms to experience increasing returns to scale at lower o/p
levels cost savings that a firm enjoys when it increases o/p
• IDOS cause average costs of production to increase as o/p increases
• Net effect on IEOS and IDOS determine whether LRAC curve slopes
upwards or downwards
Technical EOS*
Cost savings arising from production process, examples below:
• Specialisation and division of labour: when a firm’s o/p level increases, it has to
employ more workers. However, with a larger no. of workers, the firm can re-
organise workers in a way that allow each worker to specialise in a different task
increased labour productivity arising from the familiarity of repeated tasks,
time saved from not having to change tools/locations within the factory to
perform each task (assembly line method of production)
• Non-divisible inputs: As o/p increases, machines become use in a more optimal
fashion higher productivity lower AC
• Container principle: larger containers tend to be cheaper in terms of AC per vol.
since surface area, which is proportional to the amount of materials used,
increases less than proportionately than the volume that these containers carry,
AC falls when firm has to produce and store more of its goods
Marketing EOS*
• When o/p is large, firm has to buy more inputs for its production process
• This gives firm the added bargaining power to bring down price of these inputs
they pay to suppliers
• Lower input price cost of producing an additional unit (MC) falls average
cost of production (AC) falls
• Eg buying goods from supermarkets is cheaper than buying from a small store
outside. Why? Because supermarkets acquire their goods in bulk and can pass on
the cost savings to us
Financial EOS
• Large corporations typically have more assets and greater stability (i.e. less likely
to go bankrupt) lower borrowing costs from banks
• Because banks incur a lower risk, particularly default risk, when lending money to
large companies compared to small ones
Managerial EOS
• Similar to technical EOS arising from non-divisible inputs except now the non-
divisible input is not a machine but a manager
• Eg a small clothing store requires a store manager, and a larger store still only
requires one store manager by selling more units of clothing, cost of having a
manager does not necessarily increase proportionately
• Similarly an area manager can oversea a particular geographical region no
need to employ an additional area manager
Economies of scope
• By producing a wide scope of products, firms enjoy cost savings from sharing
overheads such as advertising costs, distribution costs and managerial costs
across various product lines
• Eg Apple sells iPhones, Apple Watch, Macbook, Airpods costs of R&D in
developing new operating systems, advertising costs, distribution costs and costs
of operating service centres can be shared across these different products vs a
company who solely sells smartphones like HTC: higher AC than Apple
Technical DOS
• Occurs when too much bureaucracy exists productivity and efficiency is lost as
managers of different departments vie for the same promotion or work towards
sabotaging the efforts of one another increase AC (shown along upward
portion of LRAC curve)
External EOS and DOS
• IEOS = cost savings due to expansion of firm itself vs EEOS = cost savings due to
expansion of industry as a whole downward shift of entire LRAC curve
• At the same time, if the industry size grows beyond a certain point, AC will rise for
all firms due to EDOS
EEOS
• As more firms enter the industry, they collectively demand for factor inputs of the
same kind supplier of factor inputs produce more units and enjoy IEOS part
of cost-savings passed on to firms in the industry lower COP i.e. LRAC falls even
if they did not alter output
• Sharing of infrastructural costs. Having one firm in a particular industry means
that any infrastructure must be built by that firm costs borne. If more firms
enter the industry, costs can be shared eg retail park in Tampines where Courts,
Ikea and Giant Hypermarkets are situated next to one another provide free
shuttle service from MRT stations cost of providing this service shared by three
firms lower AC
2015 A Level Q3
(b) Discuss whether government intervention is always needed when a
firm dominates the market. [15]
(b) Discuss whether government intervention is always needed when a firm
dominates the market. [15]
Introduction:
• Government may intervene when a firm dominates the market due to concerns
over economic efficiencies (allocative inefficiency, productive inefficiency) and
over equity concerns
• However, GI may not be needed in instances when the dominant firm is able to
reap economies of scale (EOS), engage in r&d etc
Main:
• Thesis: GI is always needed
• Anti-thesis: GI is not always needed
Conclusion/synthesis
Thesis: Government intervention is always needed when a firm
dominates the market
1. GI to address allocative inefficiency
• AE occurs when society produces and consumes a combination of g/s that allows it to attain the
greatest level of satisfaction and maximises its welfare. In absence of externalities, P=MC
• Due to high BTE, the monopolist is often able to earn supernormal profits in the
LR
• By restricting output and charging consumers higher price, income is being
redistributed from consumers to producers
• In contrast, consumers are charged with MC of producing the good in PC
industry where each firms only earns normal profits in LR more equitable
distribution of income
• The monopolist's profits are usually not evenly distributed because corporate
stock ownership tends to be concentrated largely in the hands of the higher-
income groups/redistributed to the top management in the form of bonuses
Anti-thesis: GI is not always needed
1. IEOS
• Monopoly is able to reap significant IEOS
• Wrt Fig 2, if production is undertaken by PC market, then the market will achieve
equilibrium where market demand DDpc intersect supply curve SSpc with a price
of Ppc at the profit maximising level of output Qpc
• If a monopolist enjoys significant IEOS, it will have a substantially lower MC
(MCm) and may even charge a lower price Pm and produce greater output level
Qm, thus increasing consumer surplus
Anti-thesis: GI is not always needed
Cont’d IEOS
• Natural monopoly eg Sing Power's provision of utilities services: IEOS so
substantial that the LRAC may continuously decline over the entire range of
market demand AC is lowest when a single firm supplies the entire market
• Hence, the government has allowed only 1 firm to provide this service rather
than many firms operating at smaller levels of output which leads to duplication
of resources and higher costs incurred
Anti-thesis: GI is not always needed
2. Innovation
• Monopolist is able to retain supernormal profits in the LR due to existence of
high BTE financial ability to carry out R&D
• Strong BTE in the form of patents/copyrights ensure that fruits of r&d efforts
will be protected and higher profits will not be competed away incentive for
monopoly
• There might also be a need for a monopolist to strengthen BTE through
innovation to further lower production costs or to further improve products, esp
if there is threat of competition (or contestability) in the market
• Hence, GI not required if R&D leads to the development of improved products
and consumers' welfare is improved as a result
• Improvement in tech will also lead to greater productive capacity of the
economy and contribute to economic growth in the LR
Synthesis
• [EV]: Given the above analysis, GI may not always be needed when there is
market dominance as there are benefits associated with it.
• Type of GI should be carefully considered to ensure that the benefits that comes
with substantial EOS can still be reaped.
• GI in the form of introducing competition into the market might erode the firm's
dominant position. However, it might not be advisable to do so if a single large
firm can supply the good to the entire market at a lower cost and hence offer
consumers lower price eg for natural monopolist. Instead, government can
intervene using price regulations like MC pricing to ensure that AE is achieved.
• Using the case of natural monopoly, the monopolist will have to charge a price
equal to its MC. At this price, it will ensure that it produces at a socially optimal
output level and AE is hence restored. However, the government would also have
to compensate the firm through a subsidy as the monopolist sustains an
economic loss and may have to go out of business in the LR unless subsidised.