Lecture 5

1
 Climate
Patterns
at Various A climate pattern is a recurring characteristic of the climate
Scales change.

2
Difference b/w Weather &
Climate

3
CLIMATE PATTERN AT LOCAL, REGIONAL &
GLOBAL SCALE

4
Pakistan’s
Climate

5
 Pakistan’s
Climate
Highest temp. recorded -53.7 C -in 2015
Located on the North of the Tropic of cancer (b/w latitude 25  and 35 
North)
Continental type
Diurnal variation mountains
Snow covered in north
Sub-zero
Temperature N

W
E
Higher temp S
in Baluchistan
plateaus
C
li
m
6
at
 Factors Affecting Climate Over
Pakistan
Western Disturbance
Fog Occurrence
Monsoon
Occurrence
Tropical Storms
Dust Storms
Heat Waves
Western disturbance
Thunder Storms
Continental Airs

7
Future Climate
Shift
Four
seasons

8
Major Climate Related
Concerns
Pakistan
change.
is rated among the top 10 most vulnerable countries to climate

Following are climate related concerns of our country:

Increased variability of Monsoon
Projected recession of HKH glaciers threatening IRS flows
Increased risk of extreme events

9
 Major Climate Related
Concerns
Increase in deforestation and loss of
biodiversity

Increased intrusion of saline

water
Human health risks

10
 Examples of Pakistan’s
Vulnerability
Floods in 2010 &
2011

11
 Major Climate Related
Concerns
Large Scale flooding in 1992, 1997, 2003, 2006, 2012, 2013, 2014,
2015
History’s worst drought during 1999-2002

12
 Major Climate Related
Concerns
Intense heat wave during 2003, 2005, 2007, 2010, 2015 (53.7
C)
Sever cyclone storms in 1999, 2007 & 2010

13
South Asia’s
Climate

14
Tropical & Subtropical
Climates
Tropical rain forests
located
around
 Western coast of India
 Near the Ganges delta in
Bangladesh
 In southern Sirilanka

15
Highlands Climate
Coldest climate lies
along
Northern edge.

Dry Climate
Along the lower Indus River
Thur desert east of Indus River
Northern-western India annual rainfall averages less than 20
inches

"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE FOR CSS......AUTHOR: IMRAN 16

 Effects of Global
Warming
Effect on Indian Subcontinent varies
IPCC report:
Annual increase in temperature at the end of the 21st century in south Asia is
3.3C
with the min-max range as 2.7 and 4.7 C
The first among the countries to be affected by severe climate is Bangladesh
With 2.4% of the world’s pollution, Bangladesh only contributes 0.1% of the world’s GHG
emission

"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE FOR CSS......AUTHOR: IMRAN 17

The Global
Climate

"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE FOR CSS......AUTHOR: IMRAN 18

Effect
s• Heat
Northeast
waves •
Northwest
Change in
Southeast
• Sea level rises
Midwest
• Extreme heat
Southwest
• Increased heat
• Heavy timing of • Decrease water • Downpour • Drought
downpours stream flow availability • Floods • Insect outbreak
• Sea level rises reduces
• Sea level rises
• Inundation
• Risk of
infrastructure &
ecosystem
compromised

19
Climate
Change
Climate change means a change of
climate which is attributed directly or
indirectly to human activity that alters
the composition of the global
atmosphere and which is in addition
to natural climate variability observed
over comparable time period.

2
Major Climate Change
Processes
3
1. Greenhouse
Effect

22
Carbon
Dioxide
CO2 raised naturally into the
atmosphere through volcanic eruptions
and animal respiration but it is also
released through human activities

23
Methane
Gas

24
Water Vapors

25
Ozone

26
Nitrous Oxides
(NOx)

27
2. Aerosols (Black Carbon, Soot
Particles)
Solid particles capable of directly absorbing incoming
and reflected sunlight in addition to absorbing Infrared
radiations.

Black
aerosol
over
Ice.

28
3. Land Use
Change

29
4. Human
Activities

30
5. Variations in the Sun’s Energy
Reaching
Climate change can alsoEarth
occur through:
◦Solar Activities (Affecting intensity of sunlight)
◦Shape of Earth’s orbit, tilt and position (Affecting amount
of
sunlight reaching Earth’s surface)
The Sun follows a natural 11 years cycle of small ups
and
downs in intensity.

31
 6. Changes in the
Reflectivity
Light colors (e.g. Ice)
reflects more than
dark colors (e.g.
forests)
Albedo: Amount of sunlight
reflected from an object.
(in percentage)
Earth has 70% albedo.
Aerosols
Its impact is global.

32
 Feeling the Earth climate is changing due to climbing levels of carbon
Heat: Indicators dioxide and other GHGs in our atmosphere.

of Climate
Change

2
Indicators of Climate
Change
3
Annual Greenhouse Gas
Index

4
Arctic Sea Ice
Extent

3
6
3
7
Ice Age 18,000 Years
Ago
Atmospheric
CO2

8
 Forest
Cover

9
Frost-Free
Season

10
Global Surface
Temperatures

42
Ocean
Acidity

43
Sea Level
Changes

44
Drought
s

45
Climate
Forcing

46
Tropical Cyclonic Activity

47
Glacier
Melting Portage Glacier Upsala Glacier
Alaska 1914- Patagonia,
2004 Argentina

17
Reduced Snow
Cover

Northern
hemisphere

18
Intense Heat
Waves

19
Lyme Disease and other Vector Borne
Diseases

51
Forest
Fires

52
Heavy
Precipitation

53
Agriculture & Food
Security

54
Climate Climate change is a change in the statistical distribution of
weather patterns when that change lasts for an extended
period of time (i.e. decades to millions of years).

Change
Drivers of Climate
Change There are three main drivers of climate change

Natura
l
drivers

Man
Economic
made
drivers
drivers
 1-Natural
Drivers
Solar radiation variation
Plate tectonics
Volcanic Activity
Sun spots
 Natural
Drivers
Orbital variation of earth Radiative forcing Geothermal vents Surface reflectivity
2-Man-made Drivers
Global warming
Green house gases
Deforestation
Land use change
CFCs
Aerosol sprays
Fossil fuel combustion
Ozone Depletion
Overpopulation
Global Warming
Green House
Gasses
Deforestation
Land Use
Change
CFCs
Fossil Fuel
Combustion
Aerosol
Sprays
Ozone
Depletion
3-Economic Drivers
Air pollution
Agricultural Revolution
Extraction of minerals
Excessive use of vehicles
Excessive production of biodegradable waste
Reducing green spaces
Increased use of fertilizers
Use of pesticides & insecticide
Globalization
Increased Consumption/Production
Impacts of
Climate
Change
on Natural
& Social
System
Effects on Natural
System
Complexity of Climate System

The climate system involves numerous, interrelated components.

Decreasing Water
Quality
Melting of Polar Ice
Caps
Submergence of
Coasts
Forest
Fires
Increased Arid
Areas
Soil/top Soil
Erosion
Shifting of
Seasons
Severe Weather
Conditions
 Heat
Waves

Severe Storms

Heavy Downpour
Sudden Change in
Weather
Sea Level
Raising
Impacts on Societal
System
Lack of Potable Drinking
Water
Climate
Change
Out Break of New
Diseases
Loss of
Infrastructure
Migration of
Fauna
Changes in Ocean Circulation
Patterns
Droughts and
Famines
Flood
s
Loss of
Biodiversity
Tsunamis
Economic
Losses
Risk of
Starvation
Food
Insecurity
Top 10 Solutions to Climate Change

1. Invest in clean energy

2. Energy efficient cars
3. Create green jobs
4. Become carbon neutral
5. Become more energy efficient
6. Protect forests
7. Tax global warming pollution
8. Coal plants use new technology
9. Cap CO2 emissions
10. Make low polluting biofuels more available
Can we Avoid Climate Change?
NO
NO
Can we Reduce Climate Change?

Can we Reduce YES

Climate Change?

YES
2
Climate Climate Change Mitigation refers to action taken:
 To reduce or prevent emission of greenhouse gases

Change  To remove heat trapping gasses from atmosphere

 To reduce impact of GHGs in term of global warming
Mitigation

3
Climate Change
Mitigation
Through
 Reduction in human emission of GHGs
 Increasing capacity of carbon sinks-through reforestation

4
Climate Change Mitigation
Low carbon energy resources
Energy efficiency

5
Ways to Bring
CCM

Direc Indirec
t t
Effect Effect

6
Varieties of Mitigation

Buildup of green
Absorbing capacity of
house gas emission
ground cover
into atmosphere

7
Mitigatio
n Plan
Wedge Approach

8
Source: IPCC AR4, Synthesis Report (shares are for 2004)
Approach Comment

Category I: Efficiency and Conservation

1. Efficient vehicles

2. Reduced use of vehicles

3. Efficient buildings

4. Efficient base-load coal plants

Category II: Decarbonisation of Electricity and Fuels

5. Gas – based load power for coal-based load power

6. Capture and storage of CO2 at base-load power plant

7. Capture CO2 at H2 plant

8. Capture CO2 at coal-to-syn fuels plant

9. Nuclear power for coal power

10. Wind power for coal power

11. Photovoltaic (PV) power for coal power

12. Wind H2 in fuel-cell car for gasoline in hybrid car

13. Biomass fuel for fossil fuel

Category III: Natural Sinks

14. Reduced deforestation, plus reforestation, afforestation and new plantations

15. Conservation tillage

10
1

4
 Carbon
Sequestratio
n
Carbon capture & Storage

12
CCS

13
Carbon
Sinks

Blue Carbon Sink Green Carbon Sink

14
Mitigation of Climate Change- Sector
Wise 15
Energy Sector &
Transportation
Energy supply

 Supply and distribution efficiency

 Switching from coal to gas
 Nuclear power
 Renewable sources
 CCS

16
Energy Efficient
Buildings

17
Industry &
Agriculture

18
Forest
s

19
Wast
e

20
As Climate Changes, Can We?
A
Carbon The total sets of GHG caused by an organization, event,
product or person.
Footprint

2
Calculation of Carbon
Footprint
Once the size of carbon foot print is known, a strategy can be devised to reduce it
1. Your carbon footprint
2. Equivalent amount CO2
3. Carbon footprint in kg carbon

Kg Carbon dioxide x 0.27 convert kg Carbon

(1000 kg CO2 equals 270 kg Carbon)

4. Powerful tool to understand the impact of personal behavior on global warming

5. Different websites for personal calculations

1
2
Carbon Footprints for Business, Companies
& Organizations
1
2
12
4
Organizational Carbon footprint

12
5
Product Carbon Footprint

12
6
Ways to Reduce Carbon
Footprint

12
7
Ways to Reduce Carbon
Footprint

12
8
Ways to Reduce Carbon
Footprint

12
9
Ways to Reduce Carbon
Footprint

13
0
13
1
 CLEAN
DEVELOPMEN
T MECHANISM

2
Introduction
Defined in article 12 of Kyoto Protocol:
CDM allows "Annex I" to develop emissionreduction in
countries projects in developing order to meet Kyoto protocol
countries targets.
Saleable Certified Emission Certificates(CER) are awarded
which
allows industrialized nations to ignore emission reduction at home .

3
4
Introduction
The clean development mechanism (CDM) allows industrialized nations
to fund climate friendly development in developing nations.

It is defined in article 12 of the Kyoto protocol allows a country with

emission- reduction or emission limitation commitment under the Kyoto
protocol to implement an emission reduction project in developing
countries.

5
 Objectives
I. To assist parties not included Annex1 and achieving sustainable
development and contributing to the ultimate objective of the
United Nation in a Nation’s Framework Convention on Climate
change (UNFCCC).

II. To assist parties included in Annex1 and achieving compliance with

their quantified emission limitation and reduction commitment.

6
Background
One of the key component of Kyoto Protocol.
Kyoto Protocol follows fundamental UNFCCC principle of
Common but differentiated responsibility
Protocol legally requires the highly
industrialized &
developed counties

Non-Annex 1 Parties have no binding reduction targets.

7
The
Promise
commitments.
Upon
The verification,
stated purposetheof CDM awardisthese
the CDM projects
to help certified(non
developing emission
annex 1)
reduction(CERs)
countries each equivalent
achieve sustainableto one ton of the carbonand
development, dioxide.
assist
(Annex 1) countries in complying in their emission reduction
industrialized
CERs then sold to developed countries.

8
9
The
Premise
The CDM allows countries to continue emitting greenhouse gases, so as
long as the pay for reductions made elsewhere.

It would be far more expensive to implement emission reductions in

industrialized countries than in developing countries, and in addition,
the developing countries would gain sustainable development benefits
from the entry of “clean” and more energy efficient technologies.

10
The
Premise

11
How Does CDM
Work ?
Host Party (non-Annex I)
with no an emission cap A total emission cap
Annex I of an Annex I Party
Specific project in Specific project in Party
host country a host country Acquired
CER CERs are
CER s added to
CER s emission
s cap

Non- Annex I
Parties with be nefit
from projects
activities resulting
in CERs

Baseline scenario Project scenario

CDM Concepts: Emission
Reduction Principle
Baseline
GHG
Emissions
Emissions

Project
Emissions

The difference between the

actual project emissions and
the emission baseline
constitute the volume of
CERs
Time

13
The
Practice
More than 1000 Projects have been qualified for Carbon Credits.
Most of these large scale activities in the
Energy Sector
Waste Sector
Subsidized technologies include landfill gas, incineration and cement
kilns
Kyoto obligations are that the CDM is indeed helping poorer
countries
more forward to a more sustainable future.
China & India are the biggest takers with a combined share of
more
than 50% of the projects.
14
CDM Project
Process

15
CDM in
Pakistan
PAKISTAN NATIONAL OPERATIONAL STARTEGY, Feb 2006.
The strategy defines Institutional arrangements for the implementation
of CDM in Pakistan, tax and credit sharing policy and the criteria grant
of Host Country Approval of CDM projects.

16
The Problems
Trading in greenhouse gases turns them into a commodity, giving
“owners” undue rights to pollute
Carbon trading allows companies and countries to be reducing
emissions, even as they continue to burn fossil fuels, destroy forests and
pollute communities
CERs are awarded for reduction against a hypothetical baseline derived
from future emission projections. This is extremely vulnerable to
manipulation, so projects can get CERs even as they increase actual
emission

17
 Reducing Emission from
Deforestation and Forest
Degradation

REDD/REDD+
?

2
Introduction
Merely check deforestation and forest degradation (REDD)

Conceptualizes flow of positive incentives for reduction in deforestation

14
9
Forest
s
Deforestation and degradation of the world’s forests are cumulatively responsible for about
20%
of net global carbon emission.

15
0
 Why Forests are
Important
Forests cover 4 billion hectares
world wide
31% total area
Vast majority occurring in
tropical region

15
1
 Carbon
Emission
Major consequence of deforestation
and forest degradation is the
release of “CO2”
One of the most potent GHGs and
primary component of anthropogenic
emissions

15
2
People and
Forests
World Bank Report
“forest resources contribute directly to the livelihood of
90% of the 1.2 billion people living in abject
poverty…”

15
3
 Need of
Forests
Supports livelihood of local communities
Vital for well-being of humanity
Play important role in poverty alleviation initiative

15
4
Ecosystem
Services Local to global
scale

15
5
REDD+
(Components) CONSERVE

Forest carbon stocks

REDUCE REDUCE
Emission from
deforestation RED Emission from forest
degradation

D
Sustainable Enhancement of carbon
management of forests stocks

15
6
Aim of
+REDD
improved the potential of REDD to achieve
the co-benefits such as:

 Poverty Alleviation
 Improved governance
 Biodiversity conservation
 Protection of ecosystems services

15
7
REDD + Negotiation under
UNFCCC
The Kyoto Protocol, COP 15, COPANHAGEN,
1997 2009

COP-13, 2007 Decision 2/CP.15

COP-16, 2010

Article 2 refers the

protection &
enhancement of sinks
& GHGs Reservoirs

15
8
Main Elements of REDD+
 Policies and Measures
 Eligible Activities
 Reference Levels
 Monitoring: Measurement, Reporting and Verification
 Safeguards

15
9
16
0