Is a Sino-Vietnamese war imminent?

Revisiting Vietnamese nationalism

Tuong Vu
University of Oregon
Nature of Vietnamese nationalism
• Earlier view: Ancient animosity toward China
• New scholarship:
– Traditional Sino-Annamese relations mostly
peaceful
– Annamese elites proud of being part of Sinic
civilization
– Struggle for local autonomy/independence not
understood in ethnic or national terms
 Nationalism & communism
• Modern Viet national consciousness emerged
in 1900s
• Viet communists = patriots who identified
national interests with working class interests
– Successfully mobilized popular nationalism
– Worshipped Mao in the 1950s but accused China
of chauvinism in the 1970s
– War with China 1979-88
 Back into China’s fold
• New leadership (1986) embraced economic
reform but remained loyal to socialism
• 6/1989: asked Gorbachev to convene
conference to save socialist camp
• 9/1990: traveled secretly to Chengdu to
propose ideological alliance with China to save
socialism
– China: “chauvinist yet socialist, better than
imperialist US”
 Foreign Policy 1991-2007

• Officially: “friends of all nations”

• Reality: closest to China

• Deep suspicion of US and fear of US invasion

 Imagined US Invasion
• “[In the case of war,] it is certain that the enemy would attack
us first from the air on a large scale, with guided missiles and
advanced aircrafts armed with smart bombs. Unlike bombings
of the North [during the Vietnam War], the enemy would not
increase the intensity of the bombing gradually but would …
strike at all targets at once—first at air defense system,
airports… then at economic and political targets all over the
country, leading to economic paralysis and political instability.
Taking advantage of this situation, domestic counter-
revolutionary forces would launch an uprising and seize our
local governments in strategic locations. The enemy could
then deploy rapid reactionary forces to help them establish a
government and a base, then call for international support to
overthrow our regime.” (JPD, 2002)
 Official narrative about the nation

• Nation possesses unique and exceptional

qualities
• Nation has no choice but socialism, no future
without the Party
• China is long-time comrade vs. US still plotting
against Vietnam
 New nationalist movement
• Participants: Intellectuals, retired officials,
urban youth, farmers robbed of land, religious
groups

• Demands: government take strong actions to

defend territory, allow peaceful protests &
freedom of speech, tackle official corruption
and land grabbing
Debunking myths in
new nationalist discourse
“After at least two thousand years of existence … Vietnam is still one
of the poorest and most backward country in the world. But …that’s
not as frightening to me [as the fact that our country] has never been
anything but poor and backward. It was like that when I was born. It
was like that when my parents, grandparents, and great-
grandparents were born… Greece is now the poorest country in
Europe, but that’s not always the case. Russia is now beset with
problems, but that’s not always the case either. Only Vietnam…”
(Pham Thi Hoai)
 Rescue nation from Party’s grip

[The Party] drew a battle line for an ideological war

within the body of the Vietnamese nation; sacrificed
Vietnamese lives in that war; yielded ancestors’
sacred territories to Chinese communists to
maintain power… The history of the VCP is a history
in which enormous interests of the Vietnamese
nation were sacrificed for the sake of the Party’s
own, narrow interests (Col. Pham Dinh Trong)
Hanoi, 12/2007
Ho Chi Minh City, 03/2008
Hanoi, July
2011
 Hanoi’s politics of coping
• Top leaders held different views and slow to
reassess situation
• Two broad, cross-cutting factions:
– loyalist/pro-China: Party, propaganda, security,
military?
– pragmatic/rent-seeking: state, provincial leaders,
SOE managers
 Hanoi’s policies since 2005
• Overriding goal: stability & status quo, not to
wreck relations with China
• Appease China on basis of shared ideology &
interests
• Warm up to US, Japan, Russia, India
• Increase defense spending
• Suppress anti-China protests
 Is war imminent?
• The good news: No, not war any time soon
• The bad news (for some Vietnamese):
Vietnam acquiesces in China’s expansion of
control over South China Sea
• The risks for Hanoi:
– China’s excessive use of force
– Protests will continue & may destabilize the
regime