PROBLEM ANALYSIS (PA)

A SYSTEMATIC
APPROACH
Dr. Yos Sunitiyoso
The Four Basic Rational Processes
(Kepner-Tregoe Approach)
Situation
Analysis (SA)
What is going on?

problem
decision future event

Problem Decision Potential

Analysis (PA) Analysis (DA) Problem
Why did it What should we Analysis (PPA)
happen? do? What lies ahead?
Problem Problem Analysis (PA) provides
the skills needed to explain any
Analysis situation in which an expected
level of performance is not being
achieved and in which the cause
of the unacceptable performance
is unknown.
 • We are concerned with
Problem the way in which
Analysis information is used to
approach deviation in
performance.

• Decision making based

on FACTS and DATA!
 Problems Not Solved
• We’ve all experienced the “solved” problem that isn’t
really solved.
• Problem Analysis is a systematic problem-solving process
that also makes the best use of experience and knowledge
• Objectivity about a situation is often sacrificed under
pressure
– Problem solving by extrapolation (rely on memories,
past similar problems, past successes)
 The Two
Forms of
Problems

1. Performance once
met the SHOULD
and no longer does.
 The Two
Forms of
Problems

2. ACTUAL
performance has
always been
below SHOULD.
 When Actual has Never met
Expected
• Is the SHOULD realistic?
– has it ever been attained, anywhere, by
anyone?
– who says it is the SHOULD?
Useful Tools Root Cause Analysis

(2) Pareto Analysis (3)

(1) The “5 Whys” (Vital Few, Trivial Fishbone/Ishikawa
Many) Diagram

(5) Failure Mode & (6) Kepner-Tregoe

(4) Tree Diagram
Effect Analysis (KT) Problem
(Problem Tree)
(FMEA) Analysis
 Problem - Flat Tire

• Why? Nails on garage floor

• Why? Box of nails on shelf split open
(1) • Why? Box got wet
5 Whys • Why? Rain thru hole in garage roof
• Why? Roof shingles are missing

Solution: Fix Roof

 (2)
Pareto Analysis
 (3)
Fishbone/
Ishikawa Diagram
 Fishbone/Ishikawa Diagram
n
ow ard
MANPOWER METHODS eD w
psid Ba ck
U
Inserted Wrong USB
Cannot Answer Prompt
Question Not Following InstructionsInstructions are Wrong

Brain Fade
Cannot
OTHER Load
Software
Not Enough Free
Power Interruption Serial Number Missing on PC
Memory

Bad USB Disk Corrupted Files Inadequate System

Graphics Card Incompatible

Hard Disk Crashed
MATERIALS MACHINERY
Fishbone/Ishikawa Diagram
Cause and Effect Diagram
Cannot Load Software on PC
 Result Cause/Result Cause/Result Cause

(4)
Problem Tree /
Tree Diagram

Primary Secondary Tertiary

Result
Causes Causes Causes
 Problem Tree / Tree Diagram
Result Cause/Result Cause/Result Cause
Lack of Models/
Benchmarks No Money for Reference
Materials
Stale/Tired No Outside Input
Approaches
Research Not No Funds for
Funded Classes

No Consequences No Performance
Reviews
Poor Safety Inappropriate Infrequent
Performance Behaviors Inspections No Special Subject
Classes
Inadequate Training
Lack of Regular
Safety Meetings
No Publicity
Lack of
Employee
Attention Zero Written Safety
Lack of Sr. Management Messages
Attention
No Injury Cost
Tracking
 (5)
FMEA (Failure
Mode & Effect
Analysis
 (6)
KT Problem
Analysis
 NAME OF PROBLEM : Breeder chicks are runting/stunting
         
SPECIFICATION IS IS NOT DISTINCTIONS CHANGES
         
WHAT:        
Minimum weight requirement
 OBJECT Breeder chicks Broiler chicks Breeder chicks are smaller than (what is considered to be a
 DEVIATION Runting/stunting Deformities/oversize Broiler chicks and kept with ‘healthy’ chick) was reduced as
      mother longer a matter of policy in January,
        1994
WHERE:        
 
 OBJECT General pop. coop Incubator coop Gen pop are outside &  
 PLACE Malaysia Taiwan, US unprotected, further from main
      office
       
WHEN:      
 TIME Since July 1994 Before July 1994 July is beginning of monsoon
 AGE 12-16 months age Younger/mature season
(6)  
 
 
 
 
 
12-16 months old first moved out
the incubator
KT Problem HOW MUCH:
 Trend
 
Stable
 
Getting worse/better
 
 
Analysis  
   
 
 

POSSIBLE CAUSES: THE MOST POSSIBLE CAUSE:

1. Minimum weight requirement not sufficient to support chick Combination of a reduced weight requirement for breeder chicks and
immune system working properly (D&C); and exposure to outside elements
2. Exposure to outside elements causes retarded growth rate
(D&C).
3. Poorly trained caretakers not properly feeding chicks (K&E);
4. Grandparent/parent lineage has genetic defect (K&E)
 
 
VERIFICATION:
(a) simply constructing enclosures at the facilities in Malaysia to shelter
the chicks during monsoon season, (b) providing a ‘shot’ for breeder
chicks designed to temporarily boost their immune systems, and ©
rescinding
  the weight requirement reduction,
Thank You !

NOTE: See next slides for more details on KT

Problem Analysis
 KT Problem Analysis

Describe the Problem

• This phase of the process is aimed at gathering the facts surrounding the problem in a
systematic fashion, and sorted and organized in such a way as to make the analysis of the
information simpler
• For example, a Problem Statement: Breeder Chicks are Runting/Stunting.
• Following through with this problem, we were able to gather the information related to
the problem.
 Describe the Problem (1)
• WHAT: Breeder chicks were experiencing runting/stunting, but broiler chicks were
not. The problem was runting/stunting, not deformities or oversize growth.
• WHERE: This was occurring in Malaysia, but not in Taiwan or in the United States
facilities. Within the Malaysian facility, we were seeing it in the general population
coops, but not in the incubator coops.
NAME OF PROBLEM : Breeder chicks are runting/stunting
         
SPECIFICATION IS IS NOT DISTINCTIONS CHANGES
     
WHAT:    
 OBJECT Breeder chicks Broiler chicks
 DEVIATION Runting/stunting Deformities/oversize
     
     
WHERE:    
 OBJECT General pop. coop Incubator coop
 PLACE Malaysia Taiwan, US
     
     
WHEN:    
 TIME    
 AGE    
     
   
HOW MUCH:  
 Trend
 
 
 Describe the Problem (2)
• WHEN: This problem was first noticed in July, 1994 and had not been experienced
prior to that. It appeared that the runting/stunting was occurring in some months
of the year, but we did not have enough data to state this as fact. The
runting/stunting first began to be observed when chicks were 12 – 16 weeks old,
not in younger chicks or more mature chicks.
• EXTENT: The size of the problem (number of chicks experiencing the problem, etc.)
seemed to vary a good bit. More data was needed in order to draw conclusions,
although it was stable (i.e., not getting worse, but not getting better).
NAME OF  PROBLEM : Breeder chicks
  are runting/stunting
     
SPECIFICATION IS IS NOT DISTINCTIONS CHANGES
     
WHAT:    
 OBJECT Breeder chicks Broiler chicks
 DEVIATION Runting/stunting Deformities/oversize
     
     
WHERE:    
 OBJECT General pop. coop Incubator coop
 PLACE Malaysia Taiwan, US
     
     
WHEN:    
 TIME Since July 1994 Before July 1994
 AGE 12-16 months age Younger/mature
     
     
HOW MUCH:    
 Trend Stable Getting worse/better
   
 Identify Distinctions
So, when looking for distinctions in the data, we discovered the following:
1. Breeder chicks were smaller than broiler chicks and were also kept with their
mothers longer.
2. The general population coops were outside and unprotected, whereas the
incubator coops were not.
3. The general population coops were also farther from the main offices.
4. July was the beginning of monsoon season.
5. At age 12 – 16 weeks, the breeder chicks were first moved out of the incubator
coops.
         
SPECIFICATION IS IS NOT DISTINCTIONS CHANGES
         
WHAT:        
 
 OBJECT Breeder chicks Broiler chicks Breeder chicks are smaller than  
 DEVIATION Runting/stunting Deformities/oversize Broiler chicks and kept with
      mother longer
       
WHERE:      
 OBJECT General pop. coop Incubator coop Gen pop are outside &
 PLACE Malaysia Taiwan, US unprotected, further from main
      office
       
WHEN:      
 TIME Since July 1994 Before July 1994 July is beginning of monsoon
 AGE 12-16 months age Younger/mature season
      12-16 months old first moved out
      the incubator
HOW MUCH:      
 Trend Stable Getting worse/better  
 Identify Change
• Now, following the process, the only relevant changes that might be the cause of
the runting/stunting MUST be changes true only for these distinctions.
1. A change, around the fact that breeder chicks are smaller in size than broiler
chicks, was that the minimum weight requirement (what is considered to be a
‘healthy’ chick) was reduced as a matter of policy in January, 1994.
2. All of the other distinctions had no changes (i.e., breeder chicks had always been
kept with their mothers longer, monsoon season had always begun in July, etc.)
         
SPECIFICATION IS IS NOT DISTINCTIONS CHANGES
         
WHAT:        
Minimum weight requirement
 OBJECT Breeder chicks Broiler chicks Breeder chicks are smaller than (what is considered to be a
 DEVIATION Runting/stunting Deformities/oversize Broiler chicks and kept with ‘healthy’ chick) was reduced as
      mother longer a matter of policy in January,
        1994
WHERE:        
 
 OBJECT General pop. coop Incubator coop Gen pop are outside &  
 PLACE Malaysia Taiwan, US unprotected, further from main
      office
       
WHEN:      
 TIME Since July 1994 Before July 1994 July is beginning of monsoon
 AGE 12-16 months age Younger/mature season
      12-16 months old first moved out
      the incubator
HOW MUCH:      
 Trend Stable Getting worse/better  
     
   
  
Identify Possible Causes
       
SPECIFICATION IS IS NOT DISTINCTIONS CHANGES
         
WHAT:        
Minimum weight requirement
 OBJECT Breeder chicks Broiler chicks Breeder chicks are smaller than (what is considered to be a
 DEVIATION Runting/stunting Deformities/oversize Broiler chicks and kept with ‘healthy’ chick) was reduced as
      mother longer a matter of policy in January,
        1994
WHERE:        
 
 OBJECT General pop. coop Incubator coop Gen pop are outside &  
 PLACE Malaysia Taiwan, US unprotected, further from main
      office
       
WHEN:      
 TIME Since July 1994 Before July 1994 July is beginning of monsoon
 AGE 12-16 months age Younger/mature season
      12-16 months old first moved out
      the incubator
HOW MUCH:      
 Trend Stable Getting worse/better  
     
   

Using both distinctions and changes (D&C) and knowledge and experience (K&E), we
identified several possible causes for our breeder chicks runting/stunting:
1. Minimum weight requirement not sufficient to support chick immune system
working properly (D&C); and
2. Exposure to outside elements causes retarded growth rate (D&C).
3. Poorly trained caretakers not properly feeding chicks (K&E);
4. Grandparent/parent lineage has genetic defect (K&E);
 Evaluate Possible Causes
NAME OF PROBLEM : Breeder chicks are runting/stunting
         
SPECIFICATION IS IS NOT DISTINCTIONS CHANGES
         
WHAT:        
Minimum weight requirement
 OBJECT Breeder chicks Broiler chicks Breeder chicks are smaller than (what is considered to be a
 DEVIATION Runting/stunting Deformities/oversize Broiler chicks and kept with ‘healthy’ chick) was reduced as
      mother longer a matter of policy in January,
        1994
WHERE:        
 
 OBJECT General pop. coop Incubator coop Gen pop are outside &  
 PLACE Malaysia Taiwan, US unprotected, further from main
      office
       
WHEN:      
 TIME Since July 1994 Before July 1994 July is beginning of monsoon
 AGE 12-16 months age Younger/mature season
      12-16 months old first moved out
      the incubator
HOW MUCH:      
 Trend Stable Getting worse/better  
     
   
POSSIBLE CAUSES: THE MOST POSSIBLE CAUSE:
1. Minimum weight requirement not sufficient to support chick
immune system working properly (D&C); and
2. Exposure to outside elements causes retarded growth rate
(D&C).
3. Poorly trained caretakers not properly feeding chicks (K&E);
4. Grandparent/parent lineage has genetic defect (K&E)
  
 
 Evaluate Possible Causes
• For each of the possible causes, we need to ask a very specific question for
each of the facts we have gathered during the Describe the Problem
phase. That question is “If the possible cause is the reason for the
problem, how does it explain both the IS information and the IS NOT
information?” The
1. It does explain it;
2. It doesn’t explain it; or
3. It explains it, but only if you assume something.

• Question: If poorly trained caretakers are not properly feeding the chicks
is the reason we are experiencing runting/stunting, how does it explain
that it is only happening to breeder chicks, but not to broiler chicks?
• Answer: It cannot be explained…it is unlikely that the caretakers have a
vendetta solely against breeder chicks, yet continue to care adequately
for broiler chicks.
• Since the possible cause could not be explained when taking the facts into
consideration, our conclusion is this could not possibly be the cause.
 Evaluate Possible Causes

• We were quickly able to eliminate genetic defects via lineage as the true cause of the breeder chicks
runting/stunting, based on the fact that the parents/grandparents of the Malaysian chicks were
identical to that of the chicks raised in Taiwan and the United States.
• Similarly, the chicks had always had the same amount of exposure to outside elements, even prior to
the onset of this problem; and
• Weight requirements for chicks had been reduced for all breeding facilities, not just the facility in
Malaysia.
 Evaluate Possible Causes
• However, an interesting theory began to develop once we began considering changes in combination
with other changes. The most striking combination created the following question: How could a
reduced weight requirement for breeder chicks, in combination with their exposure to outside
elements, cause this runting/stunting?
• As you may recall, we did not have WHEN information good enough to be considered factual. But,
based on what we did know, if we assumed that the runting/stunting began and ended in lockstep
with the beginning and end of monsoon season (i.e. started in July, ended in August/September), this
possible cause quickly emerged as the Most Possible Cause.
 The Most Possible Cause
NAME OF PROBLEM : Breeder chicks are runting/stunting
         
SPECIFICATION IS IS NOT DISTINCTIONS CHANGES
         
WHAT:        
Minimum weight requirement
 OBJECT Breeder chicks Broiler chicks Breeder chicks are smaller than (what is considered to be a
 DEVIATION Runting/stunting Deformities/oversize Broiler chicks and kept with ‘healthy’ chick) was reduced as
      mother longer a matter of policy in January,
        1994
WHERE:        
 
 OBJECT General pop. coop Incubator coop Gen pop are outside &  
 PLACE Malaysia Taiwan, US unprotected, further from main
      office
       
WHEN:      
 TIME Since July 1994 Before July 1994 July is beginning of monsoon
 AGE 12-16 months age Younger/mature season
      12-16 months old first moved out
      the incubator
HOW MUCH:      
 Trend Stable Getting worse/better  
     
   
POSSIBLE CAUSES: THE MOST POSSIBLE CAUSE:
1. Minimum weight requirement not sufficient to support chick Combination of a reduced weight requirement for breeder chicks and
immune system working properly (D&C); and exposure to outside elements
2. Exposure to outside elements causes retarded growth rate
(D&C).
3. Poorly trained caretakers not properly feeding chicks (K&E);
4. Grandparent/parent lineage has genetic defect (K&E)
 
 
VERIFICATION:  
 Generate Alternatives for Verification
• Finally, several alternatives for verification can be discussed:
1. Constructing enclosures at the facilities in Malaysia to shelter the chicks during
monsoon season.
2. Providing a ‘shot’ for breeder chicks designed to temporarily boost their
immune systems.
3. Rescinding the weight requirement reduction.
 Verification of True Cause
NAME OF PROBLEM : Breeder chicks are runting/stunting
         
SPECIFICATION IS IS NOT DISTINCTIONS CHANGES
         
WHAT:        
Minimum weight requirement
 OBJECT Breeder chicks Broiler chicks Breeder chicks are smaller than (what is considered to be a
 DEVIATION Runting/stunting Deformities/oversize Broiler chicks and kept with ‘healthy’ chick) was reduced as
      mother longer a matter of policy in January,
        1994
WHERE:        
 
 OBJECT General pop. coop Incubator coop Gen pop are outside &  
 PLACE Malaysia Taiwan, US unprotected, further from main
      office
       
WHEN:      
 TIME Since July 1994 Before July 1994 July is beginning of monsoon
 AGE 12-16 months age Younger/mature season
      12-16 months old first moved out
      the incubator
HOW MUCH:      
 Trend Stable Getting worse/better  
     
   
POSSIBLE CAUSES: THE MOST POSSIBLE CAUSE:
1. Minimum weight requirement not sufficient to support chick Combination of a reduced weight requirement for breeder chicks and
immune system working properly (D&C); and exposure to outside elements
2. Exposure to outside elements causes retarded growth rate
(D&C).
3. Poorly trained caretakers not properly feeding chicks (K&E);
4. Grandparent/parent lineage has genetic defect (K&E)
 
 
VERIFICATION:
(a) simply constructing enclosures at the facilities in Malaysia to shelter
the chicks during monsoon season, (b) providing a ‘shot’ for breeder
chicks designed to temporarily boost their immune systems, and ©
rescinding
  the weight requirement reduction,
 KT Problem Analysis
NAME OF PROBLEM : Breeder chicks are runting/stunting
         
SPECIFICATION IS IS NOT DISTINCTIONS CHANGES
         
WHAT:        
Minimum weight requirement
 OBJECT Breeder chicks Broiler chicks Breeder chicks are smaller than (what is considered to be a
 DEVIATION Runting/stunting Deformities/oversize Broiler chicks and kept with ‘healthy’ chick) was reduced as
      mother longer a matter of policy in January,
        1994
WHERE:        
 
 OBJECT General pop. coop Incubator coop Gen pop are outside &  
 PLACE Malaysia Taiwan, US unprotected, further from main
      office
       
WHEN:      
 TIME Since July 1994 Before July 1994 July is beginning of monsoon
 AGE 12-16 months age Younger/mature season
      12-16 months old first moved out
      the incubator
HOW MUCH:      
 Trend Stable Getting worse/better  
     
   
POSSIBLE CAUSES: THE MOST POSSIBLE CAUSE:
1. Minimum weight requirement not sufficient to support chick Combination of a reduced weight requirement for breeder chicks and
immune system working properly (D&C); and exposure to outside elements
2. Exposure to outside elements causes retarded growth rate
(D&C).
3. Poorly trained caretakers not properly feeding chicks (K&E);
4. Grandparent/parent lineage has genetic defect (K&E)
 
 
VERIFICATION:
(a) simply constructing enclosures at the facilities in Malaysia to shelter
the chicks during monsoon season, (b) providing a ‘shot’ for breeder
chicks designed to temporarily boost their immune systems, and ©
rescinding
  the weight requirement reduction,
Thank You !