LECTURE 3

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

Discrete Probability Distribution

Binomial Distribution
Poisson Distribution

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 Introduction to Probability Distributions
2

 Random Variable
 Represents a possible numerical value from a
random event
 Takes on different values based on chance

Random
Variables

Discrete Continuous
today Next
Random Variable Random Variable week
 Discrete Random Variable
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 A discrete random variable is a variable that is

determined by counting ie can assume only a
countable number of values
Many possible outcomes:
 number of complaints per day
 number of TV’s in a household
 number of rings before the phone is answered
Only two possible outcomes:
 gender: male or female
 defective: yes or no
 spreads peanut butter first vs. spreads jelly first
 Main features of
Discrete Probability Distributions

I. The sum of the probabilities of all the

outcomes is 1. Σ P(X) = 1
II. The probability of a particular
outcome is between 0 and 1. 0
≤ P(X) ≤ 1
III. The outcomes are mutually exclusive.
The Mean, Variance and Standard Deviation of
a Discrete Probability Distributions
 Mean of a probability distribution
E ( X )     xP ( x)
 Variance of a probability distribution
Var ( X )    E ( X )   E ( X )
2 2 2

  x P ( x) 
2
 xP( x) 2

 Standard Deviation of a probability

distribution
SD( X )    Var ( X )
 Example 1

Using past data on TV sales, a tabular representation of the

probability distribution for TV sales was developed, find the
mean, variance and standard deviation.
Number
Units Sold of Days
0 80 x f(x)
1 50 0 .40
2 40 1 .25
3 10 2 .20
4 20 3 .05
200 4 .10
1.00
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 Binomial Probability Distribution
 Four Properties of a Binomial Experiment

1. The experiment consists of a sequence of n

identical trials.

2. Two outcomes, success and failure, are possible

on each trial.

3. The probability of a success, denoted by p, does

not change from trial to trial.

4. The trials are independent.

Binomial Probability Distribution
 Binomial Probability Function
n!
f (x)  p x (1  p )( n  x )
x !(n  x )!

where:
x = the number of successes
p = the probability of a success on one trial
n = the number of trials
f(x) = the probability of x successes in n trials
Binomial Distribution Characteristics
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 Mean
μ  E(x)  np
 Variance and Standard Deviation
variance, σ 2
 npq
standard deviation, σ  npq
Where n = sample size
p = probability of success
q = (1 – p) = probability of failure
 Example 2
Evans Electronics is concerned about a low retention rate
for its employees. In recent years, management has seen a
turnover of 10% of the hourly employees annually. Thus,
for any hourly employee chosen at random, management
estimates a probability of 0.1 that the person will not be
with the company next year.
Choosing 3 hourly employees at random, what is
the probability that:
a. one of them will leave the company this year?
b. At most one will leave the company this year?
c. At least one will leave the company this year?
d. The mean and standard deviation
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 Exercise 3
13

55% of all voters support Proposition A. If a random

sample of 12 voters is polled, what is the
probability that :
a. exactly five of them support the proposition?
b. less than one of them support the proposition?
c. More than 10 of them support the proposition?
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 Exercise 4
15

A survey shows that 3% of students major in

Business Administration. Consider a random
sample of 15 students, find the probability that
the number of students major in Business
Administration would be:
a) ten
b) None
c) Less than two
d) At least one

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 Poisson Probability Distribution

 x e 
f ( x) 
x!
where:
x = the number of occurrences in an interval
f(x) = the probability of x occurrences in an interval
 = mean number of occurrences in an interval
e = 2.71828
 Exercise 5

Patients arrive at the emergency room of Mercy

Hospital at the average rate of 6 per hour on
weekend evenings. What is the probability of
a. exactly 4 arrivals in an hour on a weekend
evening?
b. exactly 2 arrivals in 30 minutes on a weekend
evening?
c. less than 2 arrivals in 15 minutes on a weekend
evening?
d. More than 1 arrival in 3 hours on a weekend
evening?
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 Exercise 6
20

The probability distribution for the number of goals the Lions

soccer team makes per game is given below. Find the mean
and variance.

Number
Of Goals Probability

0 0.05
1 0.15
2 0.35
3 0.30
4 0.15
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 Exercise 7
22
Seventy percent of the students applying to a university
are accepted. Using the binomial probability tables, what
is the probability that among the next 18 applicants

a. At least 16 will be accepted?

b. Exactly 10 will be accepted?
c. Exactly 5 will be rejected?
d. Determine the expected number of acceptances.
e. Compute the standard deviation.
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 Exercise 8
24

On the average, 6.7 cars arrive at the drive-up

window of a bank every hour.
a. Compute the probability that exactly 5 cars will
arrive in the next hour.
b. Compute the probability that no more than 2 cars
will arrive in the next 30 minutes
c. Compute the probability that less than one car will
arrive in the next 2 hours.
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