The Persona of the 68%

The Centre of Gravity for OWC’s approach to a sustainable & inclusive socio-economic development trajectory
68% -Non-farming HHs enterprises:
characterization
• The number of enterprises is on the increase (up to 44% of households own an
enterprise). What is happening to their scale? Are they growing? are they
becoming profitable?
• Dominant subsectors
- Retail trade (what are they selling, at what scale, source i.e
imported/local? in what quantities, value)
- Food and beverage activities
- Brewing
- Wholesale trade (what are they selling, in what quantities, value)
• The enterprises are roughly equally distributed between women and men, as well
as the youth
• Dominance of self employment i.e. 80% – mainly household enterprises. Only 20%
is in paid employment.
Household enterprises: characterization
• average annual earnings per HH of 2.08 million shillings- this is higher than
the incomes in the ag sector
• Persons who are employed in the service sector as their main job earn
about four times (i.e shs 362,000 per month) than their counterparts in
the agricultural sector (i.e shs 90,000 per month) .
• Almost 60% of busineses are 6 years implying that the owners have
marshalled the experience- the businesses can be sustained. This dispels
the myth that 80% of businesses do not make it to their first anniversary.
• The 68% seeks to survive but at the same time respond to opportunity
• Up 70% of the available labour did not go beyond 7years of schooling. 79%
of the women entering the labour market didn’t go beyond 7years (23% of
these have no education at all).
For more interrogation
• Informal sector, what constitutes food related activities at what part of
the value chain are majority of these jobs? Why was there a big fall in
employment of circ 300k in 2019/20? Is this likely to be repeated/can
it be reversed never to happen again?
• Informal sector employment trade related- which traded commodities
are employing the majority of Ugandans in the informal sector? What
can we do to ensure that majority of this trade comprises goods made
in Uganda or with a Ugandan component? What can government do to
support these commodities for increased jobs?
• Are the businesses in the informal sector growing in scale and
profitability? (this is important for taxation, increased HH incomes
and economic growth and creating jobs for new entrants)
For more interrogation
• Informal sector, what constitutes food related activities at what part of
the value chain are majority of these jobs? Why was there a big fall in
employment of circ 300k in 2019/20? Is this likely to be repeated/can
it be reversed never to happen again?
• Informal sector employment trade related- which traded commodities
are employing the majority of Ugandans in the informal sector? What
can we do to ensure that majority of this trade comprises goods made
in Uganda or with a Ugandan component? What can government do to
support these commodities for increased jobs?
• Are the businesses in the informal sector growing in scale and
profitability? (this is important for taxation, increased HH incomes
and economic growth and creating jobs for new entrants)
HH expenditure characterization
• Where are they spending the income on (consumption, savings &
investment)
• To be completed using UBOS and MFPED data
• Informal sector, what constitutes food related activities at what part of
the value chain are majority of these jobs? Why was there a big fall in
employment of circ 300k in 2019/20? Is this likely to be repeated/can
it be reversed never to happen again?
• Share of Household Expenditure- what constitutes others?
Household enterprises: characterization…
Household enterprises: characterization…
Food related service activities 67.6

brewing walagi malwa 58.0

Retail trade, except of motor vehicles 52.1

Personal service activities 51.4

charcoal/ firewood Enterprises 48.8

Wholesale trade, except of motor vehicle 36.2

other manufacturing 35.5

Brick/pot/stove making 18.5

other services 14.0

Motor vehicle/cycle mechanics/bicycle re 9.7

Boda boda 3.5

Manufacture of wood and of products of w 2.3

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0
Household enterprises: characterization…
Informal sector employment
2016/17 2018/19 2019/2020
Retail trade, except of m otor vehicles 2,045,000 2,368,000 3,134,000
Fores try and logging 37,000 107,000 19,000
Wholes ale trade, except of m otor vehicle 343,000 430,000 543,000
Land trans port 213,000 526,000 665,000
Food related s ervice activities 531,000 1,040,000 711,000
Pers onal s ervice activities 247,000 366,000 371,000
Manufacture of wood and of products of w 147,000 159,000 172,000
Brick/pot/s tove m aking 162,000 145,000 115,000
Motor vehicle/cycle m echanics /bicycle re 129,000 137,000 178,000
other m anufacturing 441,000 519,000 627,000
other s ervices 603,000 1,043,000 1,081,000
brewing walagi m alwa 345,000 549,000 680,000
charcoal/ firewood Enterpris es 377,000 417,000 298,000
5,620,000 7,806,000 8,594,000
Informal sector earnings
Income from HH informal enterprises
2,500,000

2,235,027
2,080,000
2,000,000

1,500,000 1,492,559

1,200,000
1,000,000

500,000

-
2013/2014 2015/2016 2018/2019 2019/2020

Income from HH informal enterprises

Informal Sector Businesses by years of
operation
70.0

60.0 57.9
50.0

40.0

30.0

20.0

10.5 7.4 8.9 6.6

10.0
4.8 3.9
0.0
LABOUR MARKET
Patterns in working status for persons 14-64
years
100

Not working Self-employment

90

Paid employment
80
75.9
71.7 70.9
70
68.5

60
55
50

40

30

20
14.8 18.7 18.1
11.3
12.9 13.5 12.8
10 11.1

0
2013/14 2015/16 2018/19 2019/20 2024/25
 Median monthly earnings for persons in paid employment

Persons who were employed in service sector as their main job earned about four
times compared to those who were in Agriculture
400,000
362,000
350,000
300,000
300,000
271,500
250,000 250,000
250,000
224,000 Agriculture
200,000 200,000 Production
200,000
Services
150,000 National
100,000 90,500
100,000

50,000

0
UNPS 2013/14 UNPS 2015/16 UNPS 2018/19 UNPS 2019/20
 2013 2014 2015
Main activity of Establishment

Manufacturing 8.1 7.7 7.9

Trade & Repairs 3.3 3.4 3.7
Transportation & Storage 0.7 0.7 0.6
Accommodation & Food Service Activities 3.3 3.4 3.6
Financial & Insurance Activities 1.7 1.7 1.7
Professional, Scientific & Technical Activities 0.7 0.7 0.8

Administrative & Support Service Activities 0.9 0.9 0.8

Public Administration 4.4 8.8 8.5
Education 71.5 67.5 66.7
Human Health & Social Work Activities 2.9 2.9 3.2
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 1.3 1.3 1.2
Other Service Activities 1.2 1.3 1.4
Total 100 100 100

Number 820,900 918,400 1,011,600

Persons aged 14-64 entering the working force by
education level
Persons aged 14-64 entering the working
force by education level and sex
Household income and expenditure
 Share of different income components in total income (%)

24
34 32 33 36
5
3
4 5
4 2
2 3 4
% 5

30 36
34 31
27

4 3
4 4 8 5 4
2 5
9
21 24 20 19
14

2009-2010 2013-2014 2015-2016 2018-2019 2019-2020

Crop Livestock Agricultural wage Non-agricultural wage

Other Transfers Self-employment
Income components…
• Self employment

• Non agricultural wage employment

• Implications for long term human capital development and quality of

population
 Share of Household Expenditure
Food Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels Education services Transport Recreation, sport and culture Health Others

Ea 46.4 19.1 8.7 2.1 3.4 4.2 16.1

Central excluding Ka... 41.7 20.8 5.7 5.7 4.7 2.9 18.5

Kam 26.3 27 6.6 8.9 6.7 2.2 22.3

46.8 15.2 7.2 6.4 3.9 4.1 16.4

U 33.2 21.6 10.1 7.4 5.7 2.1 19.9

Ov 40.5 18.2 8.6 6.9 4.8 3.2 17.8

09/27/2021
 Poverty Dynamics between the Survey Periods
2015/16 to 2019/20
Chronically poor Moved out of poverty Slipped into Poverty Never poor

Overall 6.5 10.0 7.5 75.9

Male Headed 6.4 9.8 7.6 76.2

Female Headed 7.0 10.5 7.2 75.4

Western 5.6 8.6 8.1 77.7

Northern 15.1 17.0 7.7 60.2

Eastern 7.1 13.9 12.5 66.5

Central0.42.6 2.5 94.5

Urban 3.4 2.4 2.1 92.1

Rural 7.7 12.8 9.5 70.0

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Main messages
• Marginal increases in income from agriculture, wage earnings and
returns to self informal sector employment, etc.

• The gains in poverty reduction over the years are in sync with these
patterns

• But both the earnings and poverty dynamics show that the population
is stuck in low productivity activities which are largely survivalist in
nature
Main messages…
• Economic transformation has been slow and risks stalling

• This explains the “jobless growth” that has characterized Uganda’s

growth

• Activities of the working population appear to be disconnected to

livelihood interventions

• It will thus require adjustments to industrial policy and livelihood

interventions attain economic transformation
Why have interventions not been effective?
•Projectization of government interventions and institutional
implementation arrangements

- Fragmentation and coordination

- Corruption and abuse

- Duplication and redundancies

- Evaluation, monitoring and learning

Why have interventions not been effective?
• “Agencification” of government

- disconcert between accountability and decision

making

- political economy considerations

• Failure for interventions to take the decision-making process at

the individual and household levels into consideration
General policy implications
• Restructure the implementation modalities of government

• Rethink the focus of livelihood interventions

• Incorporate household level decision making into design of

interventions
• Review the project development objectives

• Mindset change and education