TRIBHUVAN UNIVERSITY

6 IOE Graduate Conference

th INSTITUTE OF ENGINEERING
DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING
May 2019 ENGINEERING
M.SC. IN TRANSPORTATION

Development of regression model for estimation of

entry capacity of roundabouts in Nepalese
conditions and comparison with the results
obtained from existing methods.

BIPIN GYAWALI
073-MSTRE-253
CONTENTS
• Introduction
• Literature Review
• Methodology
• Analysis of data
• Remaining Task
• References

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INTRODUCTION
Background
• Indo- HCM 2017 defines a roundabout as a specialized form of
at-grade intersection where vehicles from the converging arms are
forced to move round a central island in one direction in an
orderly and regimented manner and move/weave out of the
roundabout into their desired direction
Definitions
• The basic definitions and terminologies associated with the
roundabouts and determination of its capacity

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INTRODUCTION
Background
Entry Flow: The traffic inflow from an approach to a roundabout.
Conflicting Circulating flow: The volume of traffic that is
circulating in the non-weaving section and is conflicting with the
entry traffic at the intersection from different approaches accounted
for in a classified manner for all the approaches.
Headway: It is the time between two following vehicles and is
measured from the first vehicle’s front bumper to the following
vehicle’s front bumper.
Gap: A gap is defined as the time span between two consecutive
circulating vehicles that create conflict with an entering vehicle. The
described time span is measured only when the entering driver is at
the yield line when the gap begins.
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INTRODUCTION
Background
Critical Gap: Critical gap is defined as the minimum headway in the
circulating flow when an entering vehicle can safely enter a
roundabout, assuming all entering drivers are consistent .
Follow-up Time: Follow-up time is defined as the time span
between two queued vehicles entering the circulating stream in the
same gap. The follow-up time is the headway between the vehicles
entering.
Capacity estimation: Several models are being used to estimate the
capacity of roundabouts. Almost all of them can be grouped under
three distinct families, viz.
– weaving maneuver-based models,
– gap-acceptance-based models, and
– regression models based on traffic and geometric data.
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INTRODUCTION
Background
Weaving maneuver based Model
• The initial formula for the capacity estimation of a traffic rotary
was given by Wardrop (1957).

• IRC-65 (1976) outlines the method for the design of a rotary. This
is a weaving maneuver-based model based on Wardrop’s equation.

• Both of the above-mentioned models basically provide estimation

of the capacity of weaving section.

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INTRODUCTION
• Background
Gap Acceptance Based models
These models are based on the availability of gaps to vehicles and
the circulating traffic flow around the central island. The variables
mostly used are critical gaps, circulating traffic flows, headways, and
follow-up times. Most prominent models includes

• HCM -2010 based model

• Indo HCM 2017 based model

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INTRODUCTION
• Background
Regression based models
Regression based models are based on the circulating traffic flow
around the roundabouts and the geometrical parameters like entry
width, diameter of central island , inscribed circle diameter etc. Some
methods that has been developed are:
– TRRL (UK) linear regression model
– Jordanian Model
– Malaysian Model
– Indian Models

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INTRODUCTION
Background
• With emergence of offside priority rule, in which, the circulating
traffic is given priority over the entering vehicles, capacity
estimates started to focus on entry capacity of approaches rather
than that of the weaving section.
• Gap Acceptance models are simpler as far as the number of
variables is concerned. But the estimation of these variables is
tedious. Moreover, it is difficult to estimate critical gaps and
follow-up-times at different locations and in different cities
because these are traffic and location specific. Such models are
useful when behavior of the driver is completely known.

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INTRODUCTION
Hence , a simpler regression based models might be more useful in
resource constraint countries like Nepal where driver behavior is not
known completely.
Research Questions
• What is the Appropriate Regression Model for estimation of Entry
Capacity of a Roundabout in Nepalese Conditions?
Research Objectives
• To determine the regression model to estimate entry capacity of a
roundabout in Nepalese conditions

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INTRODUCTION
Limitations
• The entry flow in roundabout is affected by Pedestrian flow in the
crosswalks near the roundabout. The pedestrian flow has been
discarded in the analysis as the pedestrian flow in these selected
roundabout did not offer much hindrance to the entry of the
vehicles.

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LITERATURE REVIEW
Weaving maneuver based Model
• The initial formula for the capacity estimation of a traffic rotary
was given by Wardrop (1957).
• IRC-65 (1976) outlines the method for the design of a rotary. This
is a weaving maneuver-based model based on Wardrop’s equation.
• The practical capacity is given by the formulae

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LITERATURE REVIEW
Where, e1 is the width of the carriageway at the entry and e2 is the
carriageway width at exit. , i.e, (e1+e2)/ 2
• w is the weaving width,
• l is the length of weaving,
• and p is the proportion of weaving traffic to the non-weaving
traffic

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LITERATURE REVIEW

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LITERATURE REVIEW
• Gap Acceptance Based models
The HCM Model:
The HCM 2010 method proposes an exponential function based on
gap acceptance theory for evaluating the entry capacity of single-lane
and two-lane roundabouts.

where C is lane capacity (veh/h),

Vc is conflicting or circulating flow rate (veh/h).
The parameters A and B of the above equation are calculated with the
help of critical headway and follow-up headway as follows:

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LITERATURE REVIEW
• Gap Acceptance Based models

• Where tc denotes critical headway,

and tf is follow-up headway.

As per HCM 2010, the default parameters for A and B are as follows: A = 1,130,
B = 0.0010 for single-lane entry and single-lane circulating stream
(corresponding to tf = 3.19 s and tc = 5.19 s) and for a two-lane entry and
multilane circulating stream A = 1,130, B = 0.0007 for right lane (corresponding
to tf = 3.19 s and tc = 4.11 s) or A = 1,130, B = 0.00075 for left lane
(corresponding to tf = 3.19 s and tc = 4.29 s).

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LITERATURE REVIEW
Gap Acceptance Based models
Indo-HCM (2017) provides the capacity estimation formulas based
upon the equation provided in the HCM-2010 using critical gaps and
follow up times for different diameter roundabouts which are
presented In the table below:

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LITERATURE REVIEW
Gap Acceptance Based models
Birlon & N., 2006 proposed a formula for capacity of a roundabout
in 1997 based on the idea from Tanner. For a double-lane circle and
double-lane entries, the capacity is given as follows.

where C is the capacity (vph),

Qc is the circulating flow in front of entry (vph),
n is the parameter connected to number of entry lanes, which equals
to 1 for single-lane entries and 1.4 for double-lane entries,
Tc is the critical headway (s), and
Tf is the follow-up time (s).

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LITERATURE REVIEW
• Regression model
Another modeling approach has been regression based. In developing
countries, Al-Masaeid and Faddah (1997) developed a non-linear
regression model for estimating roundabout entry capacity based on
the data collected from 10 roundabouts in Jordan.

Model was a function of entry width, circulating roadway width,

diameter of the Central Island, circulating traffic volume, and
distance between the entry and its near exit.

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LITERATURE REVIEW

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LITERATURE REVIEW
Regression model
Chik, et al (2004) identified the correlation between the circulating
traffic flow, entry flow, and the entry width by using statistical
analysis on roundabouts in Malaysia. The entry flows for both single-
and multi-lane entries were found to be highly dependent on the
circulating traffic flows. The relationship between the entry and
circulating traffic flow, both for the single- and multi-lane circulation
area, were conceived as linear regression function and are given as
follows:

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LITERATURE REVIEW
Regression model
Prakash (2010) suggested an empirical equation for estimating entry
capacity of roundabouts based on circulating traffic flow and
geometric parameters (central island diameter, number of entry lanes,
and number of circulating lanes) of the roundabouts in India. It was
found that number of entry lanes and diameter of Central Island
positively affected the entry capacity, while circulating traffic flow
and number of circulating lanes had a negative effect. Linear
regression was performed to have a relationship between these
parameters and the entry capacity, which is given by equation.

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LITERATURE REVIEW
Regression model
Where,

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METHODOLOGY
• Selection of study area
• Conducting Videographic survey to Collect Entry volume and Circulating
Traffic
Survey Volume of a roundabout.
• Field Measurement of Geometrical Data of Roundabouts

Data
collection
• Entry flow entering from a particular approach and the cirulating
and flow in front of a roundabout is extracted from the recorded video
extraction

• Analysis of Collected data

Regression • Linear and Non linear regression modelling using statistical
Modeling software R
and • Estimation of Entry Capacity from the developed model
estimation
of entry • Comparison of the developed model with existing models
capacity

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METHODOLOGY
Study Area:
• Durbarmarg,
• Jawlakhel ,
• Chitwan- Chaubiskoti and Bharatpur ,
• Itahari,
• Kohalpur,
• Attariya
The analysis provided in this study presently consist of hourly
volume data of Friday, Saturday and Sunday from Jawalakhel and the
Durbarmarg between 9:30 A.M to 12:00 P.M by the means of video
graphic recording and the data has been extracted by counting
manually from the recording.

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METHODOLOGY
Data Collection: The data required for the analysis mainly involves
collection of the geometrical data and the traffic flow data mainly
entry volume and the conflicting circulating volume.

The inventory data has been collected manually.

• Central Island Diameter (D)
• Entry width (EW)
• Exit Width (EEW)
• Circulating Width (CW) etc.

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METHODOLOGY

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METHODOLOGY
Traffic survey
The Volumetric flow of the vehicles entering the rotary has been
collected for every minute during peak and non-peak period in both
Durbar Marg and Jawlakhel roundabout and also the circulating flow
entering the vehicles has been collected manually from the recording
between 9:30 A.M to 12 P.M. The recorded film was played on the
computer screen to extract the desired information. To make the
analysis significant, the vehicles were divided into four different
categories as motorized two-wheeler (2W), motorized three-wheeler
(3W), small car (SC) or standard car, and heavy vehicle (HV). The
volumetric data so obtained in a minute is then summed for a 15 min
period to calculate (V15) which is then extrapolated to hourly
volume for comparison purposes.

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METHODOLOGY
• The other (V15) volume data (V15) is then obtained by
summing up the data of 16 min to 30 min time period, in the
similar fashion (V15) data is obtained from summing up the
31 min to 45 min time period.
• The PCU values for converting the heterogeneous traffic into
a homogeneous one are taken from Nepal Urban Road
Standard 2076. For conversion into PCU, the equivalence
factors for two wheelers 0.5 PCU, autos are 1.0 PCU and
buses and Heavy Vehicles (HV) are assessed as 3 PCU

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METHODOLOGY
Al-Masaeid and Faddah (1997) developed an entry capacity model
which was a function of entry width, circulating roadway width,
diameter of the Central Island, circulating traffic volume, and
distance between the entry and its near exit. Ahmad & Rastogi
(2017) developed an entry capacity model which was a function of
circulating road width, diameter of central Island and circulating
traffic volume.
In this study, multivariate regression analysis is conducted to develop
a general entry capacity relation considering entry width, circulating
roadway width, diameter of the Central Island, circulating traffic
volume, and distance between the entry and its near exit. Geometric
variables that had a weak effect to the model were rejected later from
the analysis.

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METHODOLOGY

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METHODOLOGY
Where,

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ANALYSIS OF SURVEY DATA
The following figure depicts the scatter plot diagram of the Entry
flow Vs. Circulating flow for peak period of working day of
Jawlakhel and Durbar Marg roundabouts. It can be seen that as the
circulating flow is increasing, the entry flow is decreasing which is
consistent as the circulating flow increases, more hindrance is faced
by entering vehicles in the roundabouts.

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Analysis of Survey Data

• Scatter plot diagram for data collected in non-working day

Saturday (Weekly –off peak )

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Analysis of Survey data

Non Linear Regression Analysis

Regression result for Entry flow and Circulating flow (Qc) and other Geometric
Variables for Peak flow

The datas (of working day) was analyzed by non-linear regression to find out the
relationship between Entry flow (Qe) and Circulating flow (Qc) and other
geometric variables like entry width, circulating width , Diameter of the central
Island and entry to exit distance.

The following model was obtained from the non linear regression:

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Analysis Framework

•The non-linear regression analysis provides the following equation:

The equation clearly shows that the entry flow and circulating flow have a negative
exponential relationship. The entry width has a positive effect on the entry capacity
while circulating width has a negative relationship with entry capacity which is
consistent with the models developed in Jordan and India.
However, the effect of diameter was found to be insignificant on the entry capacity
based on the observations till now. The effect of the diameter however minor has
been observed in the models suggested in Jordanian , Indian and Malaysian models
and hence requires collection of more data to establish a more robust relationship.

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Analysis of Survey data

Regression Statistics ANOVA

Multiple R 0.91 Significanc
R Square 0.83   df SS MS F eF
Adjusted R 2.01979E-
Square 0.81 Regression 4 6.012 1.503 37.216 11
Standard Error 0.20 Residual 31 1.252 0.040
Observations 36.00 Total 35 7.264   

  Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value

Intercept 21.91 1.6 13.8 9.22844E-15
Qc -0.00081 0.0 -9.5 1.01839E-10
Cw -0.70 0.1 -6.7 1.7358E-07
Ew 0.39 0.0 9.0 3.61825E-10
Ln(s) -4.81 0.5 -9.3 1.70033E-10

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Analysis of Survey data

• From above it can be seen that coefficient of determination is

0.81 which means 81 % of variation in dependent variable
(Natural logarithm Qe) can be explained by changes in dependent
variable (Qc, Ew, Cw, and Natural logarithm of S). The significance
value F indicates that the relationship established is well within
5% confidence limits. The p- value of each individual variable
shows that they are good parameters for estimation.

• The following figure depicts the scatter plot diagram of Qe entry

flow and the Circulating flow (Qc) and the exponential curve is
fitted.

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ANALYSIS OF SURVEY DATA

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ANALYSIS OF SURVEY DATA

Regression result for Entry flow and circulating flow

(Qc) for Weekly Off-Peak
The weekly off –peak i.e Saturday data i.e Qe and Qc has been
plotted and a exponential curve has been fitted by non linear
regression.

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ANALYSIS OF SURVEY DATA
• The regression outputs are given in the table below

Regression Statistics ANOVA

Multiple R 0.83
R Square 0.69
Adjusted R   df SS MS F Significance F
Square 0.67
Standard Regression 1 2.77 2.77 48.34 5.57787E-07
Error 0.24 Residual 22 1.26 0.06
Observations 24
Total 23 4.03     

  Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value

Intercept 7.710 0.133 57.962 1.49057E-25
Qc -12.105 0.000 -6.953 5.57787E-07

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ANALYSIS OF SURVEY DATA
• The result of the analysis for non-peak flow dataset
regression shows that entry flow is seen to be co-related
nicely with the circulating flow which give the adjusted R-
square value as 0.67. The relationship with the i.e. Qc is seen
to be negative exponential. Significance value (F) is found to
be 5.58 E-07 indicating that the relationship has not been
based upon by mere chance .It also indicates that during non-
peak period the circulating flow and entry flow has a strong
co-relation. This might be true as during the non-peak flow
period, since the volume is low, geometry of a place being
sufficient to accommodate the non-peak flow only limit to
entering the flow is the circulating flow in front of the entry.

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ANALYSIS OF SURVEY DATA
• The equation is given by

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ANALYSIS OF SURVEY DATA

• Regression result for Entry flow and Circulating flow

(Qc) and other geometric variables using Off Peak flow
data
• The result of the analysis for off-peak flow dataset has been
shown in Table . The regression between entry flow,
circulating flow and other geometric variables shows that the
adjusted R-square value to be 0.87. The relationship with Qc
is seen to be negative exponential which is true as circulating
flow increases entry flow decreases. The significance F value
2.9254E-08 shows that the circulating flow has a strong
influence. The p-values of individual geometric values is seen
to be within 5% confidence limits.
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ANALYSIS OF SURVEY DATA

Regression ANOVA
Statistics  
Multiple R 0.95
R Square 0.90   df SS MS F Significance F
Adjusted R
Square 0.87
Standard Regression 5 3.61 0.72 31.16 2.91933E-08
Error 0.15 Residual 18 0.42 0.02   
Observations 24.00
Total 23 4.03     

  Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value

Intercept 36.8 9.7 3.8 0.00137
Qc 0.0 0.0 -10.1 7.4E-09
EW 0.8 0.3 2.7 0.01485
CW -1.3 0.5 -2.5 0.02144
Ln(D) -1.9 0.7 -2.8 0.01236
Ln(S) -8.3 2.6 -3.2 0.00514

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ANALYSIS OF SURVEY DATA

•From the above table it can be seen that coefficient of determination is 0.87 which
means 87 % of variation in dependent variable (Natural logarithm Qe) can be
explained by changes in dependent variable (Qc, Ew, Cw, and Natural logarithm of
S and Natural logarithm of D). The significance value F indicates that the
relationship established is well within 5% confidence limits. The p- value of each
individual variable shows that they are good parameters for estimation.
The equation obtained from the non-linear regression gives following result.

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ANALYSIS OF SURVEY DATA
• Linear Regression Analysis
Linear Regression result for Entry flow and Circulating flow (Qc)
with other Geometric Parameter using Peak flow Data.
Multiple Linear Regression was carried out for the entry flow and
circulating flow and geometrical parameters like diameter, entry to
nearby exit distance, Entry width, and circulating width. The
following relationship was observed. The correlation matrix of the
observed entry flow (Qe), circulating flow(Qc), Entry width(Ew) ,
Central Island Diameter (D), Entry to nearby exit distance (S) and
circulating roadway width Cw was carried out.

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ANALYSIS OF SURVEY DATA
• It was found that the Entry flow had a weak correlation with the
entry to nearby exit distance and circulating roadway width. The
table shows the correlation matrix between entry flow, circulating
flow and different geometric parameters.

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ANALYSIS OF SURVEY DATA
• The linear regression analysis between these variables were
obtained to find out following relationship

• Linear regression analysis shows adjusted R-square value to be

0.71 which indicates the derived model can explain 71% of the
variation of entry flow by circulating flow and geometrical
parameters like diameter and Entry width. Significance F value
indicates that there is very low probability (1.8E-9) that there is no
relationship between the independent and dependent variables.
Higher t-value (i.e. lower p value) indicate that the parameters are
highly unlikely to be zero.

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ANALYSIS OF SURVEY DATA

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.86 ANOVA
R Square 0.74 Significance
Adjusted R   df SS MS F F
Square 0.71 Regression 3 8145184 2715061 30.282 1.80258E-09
Standard Residual 32 2869027 89657.0
Error 299.43 Total 35 11014211   
Observations 36

  Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value

Intercept 2553 313.0001 8.1411581 2.68E-09
Qc -1.008 0.126043 -8.00239 3.9E-09
Ew -106.7 32.95353 -3.22338 0.002912
D 53.08 7.996732 6.6377971 1.74E-07

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ANALYSIS OF SURVEY DATA

• Linear Regression results for Entry flow and Circulating flow

(Qc) with other Geometric Parameter using Weekly Off-peak
flow
The co-relation matrix between Entry flow, circulating flow and
other geometric parameters has been shown in the Table below. It can
be seen that Qe has a strong correlation with Qc only.

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REMAINING TASK
• Linear regression was carried out to find out the relation between entry flow
and circulating flow during Weekly off peak period i.e Saturday. The adjusted
R-squared value is found out to be 0.69 which shows a strong relation between
these values in off peak period. The equation derived from the analysis is found
out to be
𝑄𝑒=1803.59−1.1𝑄𝑐
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.84
R Square 0.70 ANOVA
Adjusted R   df SS MS F Significance F
Square 0.69 2305231.0
Standard Regression 1 2305231.06 6 51.27 3.5333E-07
Error 212.04 Residual 22 989136.94 44960.77
Observations 24.00 Total 23 3294368.00   

  Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value

Intercept 1803.59 117.81 15.309108 3.26E-13
Qc -1.10 0.15 -7.1604508 3.53E-07

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REMAINING TASK

• The data from the locations like Nepalgunj, Attariya , Chitwan and Itahari
(Three day-three hour data) has already been taken.The collected 1 – hour data
requires approximately 12 hrs. for extraction.

• After the extraction of such data, the data would be fed to the existing datasets
and a refined model shall be generated. Among which, 75 % data would be
used for calibration of the model and 25 % of data would be used for validation
purposes would be included in the final report. After completion of validation
of model, outputs of the generated model shall be compared to the capacity
estimates from Indo-HCM 2017, regression models developed in Jordan and
India.

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REFERENCES
• Bibliography
• Ahmad, A. & Rastogi, R., 2017. Regression model for entry capacity of a
roundabout under mixed traffic condition – an Indian case study.
Transportation Letters, Volume 9, pp. 243-257.
• Akçelik, R., 1997/07/01. Lane-by-lane modelling of unequal lane use and flares
at roundabouts and signalised intersections: The SIDRA solution. Traffic
Engineering and Control, pp. 388-399.
• Al-Masaeid, H. R. & Faddah, M. Z., 1997. Capacity of Roundabouts in Jordan.
Transportation Research Record, Volume 1572, pp. 76-85.
• Birlon, W. & N., W., 2006. Merkblatt für die anlage von [Guideline for the
Design of Roundabouts].
• CENTRAL ROAD RESEARCH INSTITUTE, 2017. Indian Highway Capacity
Manual,.

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REFERENCES
• Chik, A., Puan, O. & Chai, M., n.d. Entry and Circulating Flow Relationship at
a Roundabout. Kejuruteraan Awam, 16((1)), p. 48–60.
• HCM, 2010. Highway Capacity Manual, .
• IRC-65, 1976. Recommended Practices for Traffic Rotaries,.
• Kimber, R., 1980. The Traffic Capacity of Roundabouts. Laboratory Report,
Crowthorne,: Transport and Road Research Laboratory.
• Mahesh, S., Ahmad, A. & Rastogi, R., 2016. An Approach for the Estimation of
Entry Flows on Roundabouts. Transportation Research Procedia, Volume 17,
pp. 52-62.
• Polus, A., Shiftan, Y. & Shmueli-Lazar, S., 2005. Evaluation of the Waiting-
Time effect on Critical Gaps at Roundabouts by a Logit Model. European
Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research, 1.Volume 5.

6th IOE Graduate Conference, May 2019 55

REFERENCES
• Polus, A. & Shmueli, S., 1997. Analysis and Evaluation of the Capacity of
Roundabouts. Transportation Research Record, Volume 1572, pp. 99-104.
• Prakash, P. K., 2010. Effect of Geometry on the Traffic Capacity of
Roundabout, 34 .

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 THANK YOU

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