Six Sigma

S S IX IGMA
DMAIC: The Analyze Phase
Ref.: DR. RICK EDGEMAN, PROFESSOR & CHAIR – SIX SIGMA BLACK BELT
 Six Sigma
Alternative Six Sigma Definitions
• “Six Sigma is a business improvement approach
that seeks to find and eliminate causes of mistakes
or defects in business processes by focusing on
process outputs that are of critical importance to
customers.” (Snee, 2004).
• “Six Sigma is a useful management philosophy and
problem-solving methodology but it is not a
comprehensive management system. “ (McAdam &
Evans, 2004)
 Six Sigma
Alternative Six Sigma Definitions
• “A Six Sigma initiative is designed to change the
culture in an organisation by the way of
breakthrough improvement in all aspects of the
business.” (Breyfogle III et al., 2001)
• “Six Sigma is a programme that combines the most
effective statistical and non-statistical methods to
make overall business.” (Pearson, 2001)
 Six Sigma
Alternative Six Sigma Definitions
• “Six Sigma is a highly disciplined process that helps us
focus on developing and delivering near-perfect
products and services. The central idea behind Six
Sigma is that you can measure how many defects you
have in a process, you can systematically figure out
how to eliminates them and get as close to ‘zero defects’
as possible. Six Sigma has changed the DNA of GE – it
is the way we work - in everything we do in every
product we design” (General Electric at www.ge.com)
 Six Sigma
Define the problem and customer
Define requirements.

Measure defect rates and document

the process in its current incarnation.

Control Measure Analyze process

data and determine
the capability of
the process.
Improve the process and remove
defect causes.

Control process performance and

Improve Analyze ensure that defects do not recur.

www.ccse.kfupm.edu.sa%2F~duffuaa%2Fdownload%2FCourses%2FSE534%

Six Sigma Innovation & the DMAIC Algorithm

 S S
DMAICix igmaPhase
– Analyze
 S S
DMAICix igmaPhase
– Analyze
 Six Sigma
Analyze:
Where are we now? Where are we going?
What can prevent us from reaching our goals?
At this stage we determine the process sigma level and regard
variation as an enemy. We must determine process capability,
that is, the ability of the process to meet customer requirements.
We require several “z-scores” to make this evaluation.

ZBENCH Zst ZLT ZLSL ZUSL

Where “BENCH” = benchmark, “st” = short term, “LT” = long term

“LSL” = lower specification limit, and “USL” = upper specification limit.
 Six Sigma
Analyze: Where are we now? Where are we going?
What can prevent us from reaching our goals?
ZST = best performance that can be expected from a process
ZLT = allows for drift through time (1 to 2 sigma drift is typical)
ZLSL= (X – LSL) / S then determine PLSL(d)
ZUSL= (USL – X) / S then determine PUSL(d)
P(d) = PLSL(d) + PUSL(d) then apply inverse use of the Z-table to find
ZBENCH (long-term)
P(d) * 1,000,000 = DPMO or PPM

0.0X

Zx.y P(d)
ZBENCH
 Six Sigma
Analyze:
Where are we now? Where are we going?
What can prevent us from reaching our goals?
ZSHIFT = ZST – ZLT drift over time (DPMO tables assume 1.5)
^
ZST = (Specification Limit – Target) / ST
* process sigma is determined here
* indicates potential process performance if only
common cause variation is present.
^LT
ZLT = (Specification Limit - ) / 
* reveals long-term process capability
* used to estimate DPMO or PPM (“parts per million” same as DPMO)
* includes special cause variation
 Six Sigma
Analyze:
An Alternative Means of Approximating the Sigma Capability for Your Process

Step Action Equations Your Calculations

1 What process do you want to consider? N/A Billing & Charging
2 How many units were put through the N/A 2,000
process?
3 Of the units that went into the process, N/A 1,800
how many were OK?
4 Compute process yield (step 3)/(step 2) 0.9000
5 Compute defect rate 1.0 – (step 4) 0.1000
6 Determine the number of potential N = number of 16
things that could create a defect critical-to-quality
characteristics
7 Compute the defect rate per CTQ (step 5)/(step 6) 0.00625
characteristic
8 Compute DPMO (step 7)*(1 million) 6,250
9 Convert DPMO to  value conversion chart About 4.0
10 Draw conclusions JUST ABOUT INDUSTRY AVERAGE
 Six Sigma
Process Capability:
The Control Chart Method for Variables Data
1. Construct the control chart and remove all special causes.
NOTE: special causes are “special” only in that they come and
go, not because their impact is either “good” or “bad”.
2. Estimate the standard deviation. Used approach depends on
whether an R or S chart is used to monitor process variability.

^ _ ^ _
 = R / d2  = S / c4

Several capability indices are provided on the following slide.

 Six Sigma
Process Capability Indices: Variables Data
^ ^
CP = (engineering tolerance)/6 = (USL – LSL) / 6

This index is generally used to evaluate machine capability. It

compares tolerance to the engineering requirements. Assuming
that the process is (approximately) normally distributed and that
the process average is centered between the specifications, an
index value of “1” is considered to represent a “minimally
capable” process. HOWEVER … allowing for a drift, a minimum
value of 1.33 is ordinarily sought … bigger is better. A true “Six
Sigma” process that allows for a 1.5  shift will have Cp = 2.
 Six Sigma
Process Capability Indices: Variables Data

^ ^
CR = 100*6 / (Engineering Tolerance) = 100* 6/(USL – LSL)

This is called the capability ratio. Effectively this is the

reciprocal of Cp so that a value of less than 75% is generally
needed and a Six Sigma process (with a 1.5 shift) will lead to a
CR of 50%.
 Six Sigma
Process Capability Indices: Variables Data
^ ^
CM = (engineering tolerance)/8 = (USL – LSL) / 8

This index is generally used to evaluate machine capability.

Note … this is only MACHINE capability and NOT the
capability of the full process. Given that there will be
additional sources of variation (tooling, fixtures, materials,
etc.) CM uses an 8 spread, rather than 6. For a machine
to be used on a Six Sigma process, a 10 spread would be
used.
 Six Sigma
Process Capability Indices: Variables Data
= ^ = ^
ZU = (USL – X) /  ZL = (X – LSL) / 

Zmin = Minimum (ZL , ZU)

Cpk = Zmin / 3

This index DOES take into account how well or how poorly centered
a process is A value of at least +1 is required with a value of at least
+1.33 being preferred. Cp and Cpk are closely related. In some sense
Cpk represents the current capability of the process whereas Cp
represents the potential gain to be had from perfectly centering the
process between specifications.
 Six Sigma Example
Process Capability:
Assume that we have conducted a capability analysis using X-bar and R charts
with subgroups on size n = 5. Also assume the process is in statistical control
with an average of 0.99832 and an average range of 0.02205. A table of d2
values gives d2 = 2.326 (for n = 5). Suppose LSL = 0.9800 and USL = 1.0200

^ _
 = R / d2 = 0.02205/2.326 = 0.00948
Cp = (1.0200 – 0.9800) / 6(.00948) = 0.703

CR = 100*(6*0.00948) / (1.0200 – 0.9800) = 142.2%

CM = (1.0200 – 0.9800) / (8*(0.00948)) = 0.527

ZL = (.99832 - .98000)/(.00948) = 1.9

ZU = (1.02000 – .99832)/(.00948) = 2.3 so that Zmin = 1.9

 Six SigmaInterpretation
Process Capability:
Cp = 0.703 … since this is less than 1, the process is not regarded as being
capable.

CR = 142.2% implies that the “natural tolerance” consumes 142% of the

specifications (not a good situation at all).

CM = 0.527 = Being less than 1.33, this implies that – if we were dealing
with a machine, that it would be incapable of meeting requirements.

ZL = 1.9 … This should be at least +3 and this value indicates that

approximately 2.9% of product will be undersized.

ZU = 2.3 should be at least +3 and this value indicates that approximately

1.1% of product will be oversized.

Cpk = 0.63 … since this is only slightly less that the value of Cp the
indication is that there is little to be gained by centering and that the
need is to reduce process variation.
 Six Sigma
Analyze:
Setting Performance Objectives
Critical to the Setting of Performance Objectives are the Concepts of
‘Baseline’, ‘Process Entitlement’, ‘Benchmark’ and ‘Benchmarking’

BASELINE: This is the process performance level at the start of the Six Sigma Project.

PROCESS ENTITLEMENT: This is our best expectation for process performance

(e.g., the ‘sigma level’) with the current technology – that is, without
substantial reengineering or investment. This can be estimated from Z st.

BENCHMARK: This is the current ‘best in class’ performance level.

BENCHMARKING: The process of finding the benchmark performance

level and then matching or exceeding that performance.
 Six Sigma

Cause & Effect

Fishbone Diagram

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 Cause & Effect Fishbone Diagram
Six Sigma
• Objectives
– To understand the benefits of Cause & Effect
Analysis
– To understand how to construct a C & E Diagram

• Analysis
– A method a work group can use to identify the
possible causes of a problem
– A tool to identify the factors that contribute to a
quality characteristic

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 Uses of C & E Fishbone Diagram
Six Sigma

• Visual means for tracing a problem to its causes.

• Identifies all the possible causes of a problem and

how they relate before deciding which ones to
investigate.

• C & E analysis is used as a starting point for

investigating a problem.

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 Six Sigma
• Effect
Fishbone Diagram

– The problem or quality characteristic

– The effect is the outcome of the factors that

affect it

Effect

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 Six Sigma
Fishbone Diagram
Causes
• All the factors that could affect the problem or the quality
characteristic

• Five Major Categories

– Materials
– Methods
– People
– Machines
– Environment

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 Six Sigma
Machine Environment

Effect

Material Methods People

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Six Sigma

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 Six Sigma
Capacity Lead Time Inventory
Productivity (Mfg.)
Locations
Facilities Quality (Mfg.)
Proximity to Supplier Interest Rate
Quality
Ontime Delivery
Warehouse Space
Downtime Performance
Package Quality
Level of Remote Currency
Speed of Order Process
Monitoring
APS (Adv. Planning & Service Level
High Skill Labor Scheduling
(Training)
Ship Schedule Inventory Turnover Ratio
Availability of Work Flight Schedule
Production Strategy
Regulations Total
Logistics
Level of Utilization
Commitment to Continue Product Design
Costs
Seasonality
Improvement
Pickup and Unload Cost
Defective Rate Sale Forecast Distance
Acuracy Distributed Network
Efficiency of ERP System Transit Insurance Rate
Traffic Volume
Material Quality Seasonality of Demand
Handling Costs for Flight

Asset Management Handling Costs for Shipment

Available Demand Proximity to Airport
Cost of Labor Proximity to Ports
Distribution Channel
Stability of Business Accuracy of Sale
Forecast Container Volume (Air)
Container Volume (Ship)
Manufacturing
Forecast Shipping Cost
Cost
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Six Sigma

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Six Sigma

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 Six Sigma
• Causes can be traced back to root causes with the 5 Whys technique.

• Typical categories are: 5 Whys Technique

• The 4 Ms (used in manufacturing)
– Machine (technology)
– Method (process/inspection)
– Material (raw, consumables etc.)
– Man Power (physical work)/Mind Power (brain work): Kaizens,
Suggestions
• The 8 Ps (used in service industry)
– Product=Service
– Price
– Place
– Promotion
– People
– Process
– Physical Evidence
– Productivity & Quality
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 Six Sigma
4 Ss and Ms
• Typical categories are:

• The 4 Ss (used in service industry)

– Surroundings
– Suppliers
– Systems
– Skills

• More Ms
– Mother Nature (Environment)
– Measurement (Inspection)
– Maintenance
– Money Power
– Management

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 Six Sigma

Cause & Effect Matrix

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 Six Sigma
The Eight Steps in Cause and Effect Analysis
1. Define the Effect
2. Identify the Major Categories
3. Generate Ideas
4. Evaluate Ideas
5. Vote for the Most Likely Causes
6. Rank the Causes
7. Verify the Results
8. Recommend Solutions

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 Six Sigma
Cause & Effect Matrix
• The Cause and Effect matrix is used to understand the
relationship between KPIVs KPIV (Key Process Input Variables)
and KPOVs (Key Process Output Variables). It can help initiate
experimental investigations.
• The KPIVs are inputs to vary and record, the KPOV is a response
to measure. These experiments, natural or DOE, can be analyzed.

• The C&E matrix also provides the initial input to the process
FMEA. Whenever a KPOV drifts out of specification, that is an
"Effect".
• When that happens, the CE matrix should have listed whatever
the "Cause" was, as a KPIV going out of specification.

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 Rating of
2
Six Sigma
Importance to
Customer
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

1
Total
5
Process Step Process Input &
1
2
0
0
6
3 0
4 0
5 0
6 0
7 0
8 0
9 0
10 0
11 0
3 12
13
0
0
14 0
15 0
16 0
17 0
18 0
19 0
20 0
0
0

0
Total
Lower Spec
Target 4
Upper Spec
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 Six Sigma
Cause & Effect Matrix
• Purpose or Function: This tool helps you decide which inputs from a Cause &
Effects fishbone diagram should be tackled / addressed first.

• Special instructions:
– 1st tab (group / team): Rank major categories of the output first
then rate the inputs against the weighted output categories.
– 2nd tab (individual): Copy the results as data (not formulas)
and sort the results.
– 3rd tab (individual): Create a Pareto graph of the sorted data.

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Six Sigma

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Six Sigma

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 Six Sigma
Sorted Priority / Selection Data
Top Ten Inputs

300
250 250 241
Effect on Output Score

250 229
192 190 184
200 178 178 175

150

100

50

0
Dir Eq Ro Au Re Re Re Kn Ex Ac
ec uip ut to du du du ow pe cu
t La me e st m a cti cti cti led ri e rat
bo nt ha t ic o n/ o n/ on/ ge n ce eW
rV Av t a p a E E E o d Ot
ari a il re yp lim l im lim fc /E rac
an ab ac o i n i n i n ap du
ce i lity cur i n ts a tio atio a tio a c cat e kin
at e for no no no it y g
for d op
(sc ea fQ fS fm ea er
rub ch AI cra is - ch ato
be st e ns p& pla a rs
d) po p ec Re ce rea
fa t io wo d WO
WO n rk
Output:
Reduce Cycle Time
Input

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 Six Sigma
Analyze:
Sources of Variation
This is the search for the Vital X’s – the factors that drive the customer CTQs.
Various statistical and quality methods are useful in this effort. Among these are:

HYPOTHESIS TESTING, which can

• Reveal Significant Differences in Performance Between Processes
• Validate Process Improvements
• Identify Factors that Impact the Process Mean and Variation.

FISHBONE or CAUSE-AND-EFFECT DIAGRAMS

 Six Sigma
Analyze:
Sources of Variation:
The Hypothesis Testing Algorithm
1. Formulate the Null and Alternative Hypotheses, H0 and HA.
2. Specify the Sample Size and Significance Level of the Test, n and 
3. Determine Which Type of Test Should be Employed.
4. State the Critical Value(s) & the Test Statistic & Specify the Decision Rule.
5. Collect and Validate Process Data.
6. Determine the Calculated Value of the Test Statistic (Data Based)
7. As Appropriate, Construct and Interpret Confidence Intervals.
8. Determine and Pursue a Course of Action.

Key Vocabulary: Type I and II Errors,  and 