PAKISTAN FOOD SECURITY SITUATION,

POTENTIAL, OPPORTUNITIES AND

POLICIES

Dr. Mubarik Ali

Ex-Member (Food Security and Climate Change)
Planning Commission of Pakistan
 Presentation structure
• Concept of Food Security
• Food Security Situation in Pakistan
• Opportunities and Challenges of Food
Security
• Strategies of Food Security
– Promises of the Vision 2025
– Implementation
• Challenges
 PREAMBLE
Food is life of the people, therefore it has become
a political commodity especially in modern times
where:

“Nothing can bring people into the streets faster

and more spontaneously than a rapid run-up in the
costs of food”

Peter Timmer- Professor Harvard University

FOOD SECURITY
CONCEPT
 FOOD POLICY – A MULTIFACET ISSUE
• Ensure Availability:
• National
• Regional - especially to remote areas
• Seasonal - All times across the year
• Ensure Accessibility - Household Food Security:
• Supply at reasonable cost
• Distribution – Across socioeconomic group
• Ensure supply to all socioeconomic groups
• Quality - Nutritional Food Security:
• Enough consumption of all nutrients for healthy life.
• Hygienic and clean food especially water
 GOVT CONCERNS IN FOOD POLICY
• Low prices to the producers
• Exploitation of farmers by traders
• Inefficient and Unsustainable production processes
• Technologies
• Water
• chemicals
• High food cost to poor consumers
• Exploitation of by traders
• Imbalance and poor quality food basket
• Vitamin and mineral deficiency
• Poor food quality
• Uncertain and irregular availability
• Unequal distribution of food across
• Region
• Socioeconomic group
 Mechanism of Price Support
Price

D S

P1

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Quantity
Q2 Q Q1
Mechanism of Price Support
Price

D S

P1

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Quantity
Q2 Q Q1
 Mechanism of Price Support
Price

D S

S1

P1

S D

Quantity
Q Q1
 Mechanism of Price Support
Price

S2
D S

P2

S D

Quantity
Q2 Q
 FOOD SECURITY
SITUATION IN PAKISTAN
Availability of Food during 2017-18
Million t
Food Items Production Consumption  Balance

Wheat  22.6 20.8 1.8

Rice  7.0 3.1 3.9
Sugar 6.6 5.0 1.6
Potato 4.6 3.0 1.6
Meat 2.9 2.7 0.2
Tea 0.0 0.2 -0.2
Edible Oil 0.5 2.4 -1.9
Pulses 0.3 0.9 -0.6
 Food Trade surplus
M illion U S $

5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500 Exports Imports
1,000
500
0
 Trend in Accessibility: Food Prices
600
Consumer Price indices
500

400 Wheat
(kg)
300 Milk
(ltr)
Beef
200 (kg)
Potato
100 (kg)

0
200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 201 201 201 201
 Trends in Accessibility to Food
10 Number of Days Needed to Work to Afford 100kg bag of Wheat
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
199 200 201
 Pakistan on Loosing Grounds in Food Supply
Items Yield level (t/ha) 2017-18
Pakistan India China Vietnam
Wheat 2.8 3.1 1.3 1.3
Rice fine 3.2 4.1 0.4 2.0
quality (Paddy)
Potato 18.3 22.9 -0.9 2.6
Tomato 10.0 20.7 -0.4 2.2
Onion 13.4 16.3 -0.5 3.3
Banana 5.2 34.2 2.5 2.0

Source: Agriculture Statistics of Pakistan; Agriculture Statistics at a glance, India; APEDA

Trends in Food Consumption (1992-2012)
Per Capita Quantities of food Consumed (grams/day)
 Food Groups 1992 2012
Wheat 351 284
Other cereals 92 89
Pulses 22 13
Milk & fat 294 302
Meats 26 29
Fruits 22 96
Vegetables 139 114
Miscellaneous 79 90
Total 1024 1018
 Trend in Nutrient Deficiency
Recommended
Nutrient Dietary Deficiency in
  Allowance 1992 2012 2012 (%)

Energy (kcal)  2200 2292 2097 5

Protein (mg)  55 60 52 5
Calcium (mg) 968.3 596 580 67
Iron (mg) 12.2 6.9 6.0 103
Vitamin A (µg) 4757.8 1783 1326 259
Vitamin C (mg) 55 54 65 -16
Vitamin B1 (mg) 1.2 1.0 1.4 -14
Vitamin B2 (mg) 1.3 1.6 0.8 63
Niacin (mg) 14.9 12.1 10.5 42
 Global Hunger Index of regional
countries
Country 1990 1995 2000 2005 2014
Bangladesh 36.6 34.4 24.0 19.8 19.1
Pakistan 26.7 23.3 22.1 21.0 19.1
India 31.2 26.9 25.5 24.2 17.8
Nepal 28.4 26.8 25.2 22.2 16.4
Sri Lanka 22.2 20.2 17.6 16.8 15.1

[1]
Note: Scale: 0-100. Low means less hunger while high means more hunger.
Malnutrition Children in Pakistan

Page 20
OPPORTUNITIES AND
CHALLENGES
 Opportunities
• Alluvial plains
• Wide ranging environments having significant difference in
day and night temperature
• Largest irrigation system of the world (serve ≈15 mha)
• Largest farm-size in South and Southeast Asia (≈ 3 ha/farm)
• Proximity to international market
• Fast increasing demand of horticultural products in domestic
and international markets
• Opportunities for investment on food compliance and value
chain development
• Skewed land holding creates an opportunities for organizing
corporate as well cooperative farming
 Challenges
• Increasing food production costs
• Degrading and dwindling resources especially
water, land and qualified human resources;
• Changing climate;
• Increasing poverty and regional disparity;
• Increasing competition from producers in other
regions and countries; and
• Small farmers’ inability to meet stringent market
quality requirements.
 Pakistan on Loosing Grounds in Food
Supply
Items Yield level (t/ha) 2017-18
Pakistan India China Vietnam
Wheat 2.8 3.1 1.3 1.3
Rice fine 3.2 4.1 0.4 2.0
quality (Paddy)
Potato 18.3 22.9 -0.9 2.6
Tomato 10.0 20.7 -0.4 2.2
Onion 13.4 16.3 -0.5 3.3
Banana 5.2 34.2 2.5 2.0

Source: Agriculture Statistics of Pakistan; Agriculture Statistics at a glance, India; APEDA

 Pakistan’s Performance in World
Scenarios
No. of commodities with various yield growth trends
Comparison Pakistan World
Negative growth 11 0
Positive growth 18 29
Pakistan lower growth
21 -
than world average
Pakistan higher growth
than world average 8 -
 Stagnated Total Factor Productivity
Total Factor Productivity and Water Productivity
Output Index Input Index
200 200
180 Sindh Punjab 180 Sindh Punjab
160 160
140 140
120 120
100 100
80 80
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Year Year

Total Factor Productivity 250 Water Productivity

160 Sindh Punjab
140 Sindh Punjab 200
120 150
100 100
80 50
60 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Year Year

1. Failure to achieve growth in TFP; all growths in yields are input driven
2. Declining water productivity is a serious challenge for R&E 26
 Low Value Chain Development (Low quality)
Average Export Prices (US$/ton)
Pakistan average World average Pakistani price as
Crop export price export price % of world price
Dates 220 1042 21.1
Mango 796 1227 64.9
Citrus 441 845 52.2
Banana 449 520 86.3
Chili 1792 2355 76.1
Onion 285 404 70.5
Beef 3587 5129 69.9
Pakistan is loosing billions in export because of low value chain
Improving value chain of agriculture commodities is a serious challenge for R&E

27
STRATEGIES: Promises of
Vision 2025
 VISION 2025
Recognizing the nutrient deficiency in the
country, it seeks Pakistan where “all people, at
all times, have physical and economic access
to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet
their dietary needs and food preferences for
an active and healthy life”
 NUTRITIONAL - PAKISTAN VISION 2025
S. No Indicators Targets
2018 2020 2025
1 Anthropometry  
A Children  
  Stunting(Height for Age) 35 28 22
  Wasting(Weight for Height) 11 09 7.5
  Underweight(Weight for Age) 24 20 16
B Mothers  
  Underweight 12 10 07
  Overweight 20 15 11
  Obese 08 07 06
2 Micronutrient Deficiencies  
A Children  
  Anaemia 40 39 31
  Vitamin A 35 30 27
B Mothers  
  Anaemia 40 32 25
3 Salt Adequately Iodized (Universal Salt 80 90 95
Iodization)
 Food Security Targets
• Nutrition allocations in PSDP and ADPs.
• Raise public investment in agriculture to 10%
of PSDP.
• Reduction in food insecurity from 60% to 30%
• Hunger free Pakistan program
 STRATEGIES:
Implementation
 Agriculture and Nutrition
Development Strategies
• Create livelihood and reduced poverty.
– Develop agriculture through enhanced productivity
– Promote high value crops
– Promote value chain through cluster approach
– Bridging down 40% yield gap in major crops.
– 50% decrease in crop losses by 2025
• Explore agriculture cooperation along the CPEC
• Promote nutritional education
• Water security
– Building new reservoirs
– effective irrigation policies for efficient use of water
 Steps Taken to improve Nutrition
• Technical Support for nutrition related activities.
1. Formation of Inter-sectoral Provincial TWGs.
2. Formulation of Provincial Nutrition Policy
• Develop multi-stakeholder coordination
1. Signing of World Health Assembly Targets (WHA).
2. Establishing of Civil Society, business, and Academia Networks.
• Fortification through creation of Fortification Alliance
• Wheat Flour Fortification programs
• Distribution of Vitamin A supplements.
• Universal salt iodization
• Release of fortified wheat varieties
 Improved Regulatory Framework in Agriculture
• Implement of Amendments in Seed Act
• Regulatory framework for GMO’s
• Truth-in-label for testing of seed quality
• Establishment of Food Control Authority
• Develop appropriate food checking procedures
• Dietary Guidelines and Food Quality Standards
• Implement Vitamin A & Food Fortification Laws
• Enact iron and zinc fortification laws
 CHALLENGES
• Lack of rural leadership to own rural, agriculture, and
nutritional development – Much better in this
government
• Increase agriculture research investment from 0.18% to
1.0% of ag. GDP
• Make research system more responsive to resolve
stakeholders issues.
• Make nutritional intervention more responsive and
effective
• Create nutritional and food quality awareness among
stakeholders
• Reform agriculture markets
THANKS
Trend in Availability of food in Pakistan
Availability (Kg/capita/annum)
Food Items 1993-94 2013-14 
Wheat  131.9 125.2
Rice  22.3 23.5
Pulses  5.4 4.4
Milk (Fresh + Dry milk)* 64.6 70.3
Meat (Beef, mutton, poultry) 16.1 18.9
Edible Oil/Ghee
*One tonne dry milk is equivalent to 4 tonnes of liquid10.5
milk 12.5