Climate Extremes

Perdinan
 CLIMATE VARIABILITY
Definisi IPCC:

Climate variability refers to variations in the mean state and

other statistics (such as standard deviations, the occurrence of
extremes, etc.) of the climate on all temporal and spatial
scales beyond that of individual weather events.

Variability may be due to natural internal processes within the

climate system (internal variability), or to variations in natural
or anthropogenic external forcing (external variability).
 Scale of The Weather Event

Month Day Hour Minute Second

2000
Fronts
Hurricanes
Length (km)

200 Squall lines

Inertial Waves

20 Sea Breeze
Thunderstorms
Urban Effects
2 Convection
Short Gravity
Waves
0.2

Figure 1. Time span and horizontal scales of different weather phenomena

Source: Redrawn from Delden (1992) based on Orlanski (1975)
 Types of Climate Phenomena

Name/Type of Climate Phenomena Reference Frequency

Madden-Julian oscillation, intra-seasonal (MJO or ISO) Madden and Julian (1972) 0.1–0.2
SOI phases based on El Nino–Southern oscillation
Stone et al. (1996) 0.5–7
(ENSO), seasonal to inter-annual
Quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) Lindesay (1988) 1–2
Antarctic circumpolar wave (ACW), inter-annual White (2000b) 3–5
Latitude of sub-tropical ridge, inter-annual to decadal Pittock (1975) 10–11
Zhang et al. (1997);
Power et al. (1999);
Inter-decadal pacific oscillation (IPO) or decadal pacific 13+
Meinke et al. (2005);
oscillation (DPO) 13–18
Mantua et al. (1997);
Allan (2000)
Multi-decadal rainfall variability Allan (2000) 18–39
Folland et al. (1998) 50–80
Interhemispheric thermal contrast (secular climate signal)
Timmermann et al. (1999);
Climate change (CC) ???
Kumar et al. (1999)

Source: (Meinke and Stone 2005)

 Essential Climate Variables (ECVs)
Domain Essential Climate Variables
Surface: Air temperature, Precipitation, Air pressure, Surface
Atmo- radiation budget, Wind speed and direction, Water vapour.
spheric Upper-air: Earth radiation budget (including solar irradiance), Upper-
(over land, air temperature, Wind speed and direction, Water vapour,
sea and Cloud properties.
ice) Composition: Carbon dioxide, Methane, Ozone, Other long-lived
greenhouse gases, Aerosol properties.
Surface: Sea-surface temperature, Sea-surface salinity, Sea level,
Sea state, Sea Ice, Current, Ocean colour (for biological
Oceanic activity), Carbon dioxide partial pressure.
Sub-surface: Temperature, Salinity, Current, Nutrients, Carbon, Ocean
tracers, Phytoplankton.
River discharge, Water use, Ground water, Lake levels, Snow cover, Glaciers
and ice caps, Permafrost and seasonally-frozen ground, Albedo, Land cover
Terrestrial (including vegetation type), Fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active
radiation (FAPAR), Leaf area index (LAI), Biomass, Fire disturbance, Soil
moisture.
 Climate Extremes and Impacts
Example of impact sectors, the associated climate extreme
and climate variables of interest

Source: Hanson et. al. (2006)

Conceptual Framework of Disaster Risk

Source: IPCC (2012)

 Extreme and Climate Changes
A changing climate leads to changes in the
frequency, intensity, spatial extent duration, and
timing of extreme weather and climate events,
and can result in unprecedented extreme
weather and climate events.
 The Effects of
Climate Change
on the Extremes
 Definition of Climate Extreme
Climate Extreme (extreme weather or climate
event): The occurrence of a value of a weather or
climate variable above (or below) a threshold value
near the upper (or lower) ends of the range of
observed values of the variable.

For simplicity, both extreme weather events and

extreme climate events are referred to collectively
as ‘climate extremes.’
 Analysis of Climate Extremes
Climate Extremes can be analyzed based on the use of so-called ‘extreme
indices’. The indices can be based on the probability of occurrence of
given quantities or on threshold exceedances.

Typical indices that are

• The number, percentage, or fraction of days with maximum (Tmax) or minimum
temperature or minimum (Tmin)
• A specific climate variable below the 1st, 5th, or 10th percentile, or above the 90th,
95th, or 99th percentile, generally defined for given time frames (days, month,
season, annual). Common indices are the 10th and 90 th percentiles of Tmax/Tmin
computed on daily time frames are referred to as ‘cold/warm days/nights’
• The number of days above specific absolute temperature or precipitation thresholds,
or more complex definitions related to the length or persistence of climate extremes.
 Visualization of Extremes

Box Plot Probability Density Function Cumulative Distribution Function

Visualization of Extremes
 Examples of Threshold Analysis
TR, Number of tropical nights
Annual count of days when TN (daily minimum temperature) > 20 0C.

TN90p, Temperature Minimum 90th percentile

Percentage of days when TN > 90th percentile

WSDI, Warm speel duration index (Temperature Maximum – Tx)

Annual count of days with at least 6 consecutive days when TX > 90th
percentile

DTR, Daily temperature range

Monthly mean difference between TX and TN

Rx1day, Monthly maximum 1-day precipitation

The maximum amount of daily precipitation for every month.
Source: http://etccdi.pacificclimate.org/list_27_indices.shtml
BMKG Monitoring Extremes
Indeks R50
Indeks Rd
Indeks RMax
Indeks RMaxAbs
Indeks TMax
Indeks TMaxAbs
Indeks TMinAbs
Indeks Wetspell
Outputs of Climate Models

Source: Climark (2014)

Thank You