Climate and Climate Change

 Climate can be define as the composite or generally prevailing weather conditions of a

region( temperature, air pressure, humidity, precipitation, sunshine, cloudiness, and winds)
throughout the year, averaged over a series of years.

 Climate change is a change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns when

that change lasts for an extended period of time (i.e., decades to millions of years).

 It includes shifts in the frequency and magnitude of sporadic weather events as well as the
slow continuous rise in global mean surface temperature.

 Despite many years of debate around the validity of climate science, the science is clear:
climate change is real, human activities are accelerating this change, and the impacts of
climate change are being felt around the globe.
Weather is the day-to-day state of the atmosphere, and its short-term variation in
minutes to weeks.

Define Micro climate

Microclimates are caused by local differences in the amount of heat or water
received or trapped near the surface. A microclimate may differ from its
surroundings by receiving more energy, so it is a little warmer than its
surroundings.

How is climate important?

Climate has a central role in global economic and social sectors. Climate directly
affects the prosperity within of many sectors, such as insurance, agriculture,
energy and health. ... Societies have evolved by managing and adapting to
climate and its impacts.
Factors that Influence Climate
Elevation or Altitude affect climate. Normally, climatic conditions become colder as
altitude increases. ...
Prevailing global wind patterns. ...
Topography. ...
Effects of Geography. ...
Surface of the Earth. ...
Climate change over time.

Factors that affect weather

Weather conditions are determined by six major factors: air temperature, air
pressure, humidity of the air, amount and kind of cloud cover, amount and kind
of precipitation, and speed and direction of the wind.
The Impact of Weather and Climate on Society and a Vision for the Future
This session discusses ways in which society is becoming increasingly sensitive to
weather and climate.

At the same time, better understanding, observations, and numerical models are
leading to improvements in the accuracy of weather and climate information.

Together, the increased sensitivity and the availability of more accurate information
are creating more and new users of environmental information and are heightening
the value of this information.

Satellites provide an essential component of a global observing system that serves

as a foundation for an Earth Information System, a comprehensive environmental
database that will support a large variety of users for the benefit of society. The
trends highlighted above call for a more rapid transitioning of NASA research to
NOAA operations in order to increase the rate of return to society from the public
investment in research.
Evidence of Climate Change
Climate change manifests in a number of ways. They include:
i. changes in average climatic conditions – some regions may become
drier or wetter on average;
ii. changes in climate variability – rainfall events may become more
erratic in some regions; changes in the
iii. frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events and changes in
sea levels.

Human influence on the climate system is clear, and recent

anthropogenic emissions of green-house gases are the highest
in history.
The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and
ice have diminished, and sea level has risen.
 Alarming Facts about Climate Change
• Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any
preceding decade since 1850.

• The period from 1983 to 2012 was likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 1400 years in the
Northern Hemisphere (IPCC report , 2014).

• The globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature show a warming of 0.85
[0.65 to 1.06] °C over the period 1880 to 2012.

• Since the beginning of the industrial era, oceanic uptake of CO 2 has resulted in acidification of
the ocean; the pH of ocean surface water has decreased by 0.1, corresponding to a 26%
increase in acidity, measured as hydrogen ion concentration.
•
• The annual mean Arctic sea-ice extent decreased over the period 1979 to 2012, with a rate that
was very likely in the range 3.5 to 4.1% per decade.

• Over the period 1901 to 2010, global mean sea level rose by 0.19 [0.17 to 0.21] m . The rate of
sea level rise since the mid-19th century has been larger than the mean rate during the previous
two millennia .
Figure 1:
relationship
between the
observations and
emissions. Colors
indicate different
data sets.
Causes of climate change

 Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have increased since the pre-

industrial era, driven largely by economic and population growth, and
are now higher than ever.

 This has led to atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane

and nitrous oxide that are unprecedented in at least the last 800,000
years.

 Their effects, together with those of other anthropogenic drivers, have

been detected throughout the climate system and are extremely likely to
have been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-
20th century (IPCC 2014)
Evidences of Global Warming on the Global Environment

1. Melting ice, glaciers

NOAA photo
and permafrost
2. Animals Habitation
3. Wetlands and forests

Columbia University photo

4. Severe weather and
storms

Tony Weyiouanna, Sr
 Melting Sea Ice
 23% smaller than previous
minimum; 39% smaller than
average

 Ice 50% thinner

(D. A. Rothrock et al., 1999)

 Ice only 3 feet thick in

most locations (NOAA
FAQ, 2007)

Arctic Sea Ice Extent, 1978 - 2008

 In September 2007 an area the

size of Florida (69,000 square miles)
melted in six days (NSIDC 2007)
Melting Sea Ice
The Arctic Ocean could be ice-free in summer by 2040
(U.S National Center for Atmospheric Research, 2006)

2000 2040
Animals at Risk
• Polar bears
• Walruses
• Black guillemots
• Arctic grayling
• Kittiwakes
• Ice seals
• Salmon
• Caribou

 Rising temperatures
 Shrinking habitat
 Food harder to get
 Expanding diseases
 Competition
Sea-level from satellites: 4 cm rise in last 10 years
Climate Change and the Global Economy
Temperature rise due to climate change may radically damage the global economy and slow growth
in the coming decades if nothing is done to slow the pace of warming, according to new research.

Burke et al. 2015 published in NATURE found that temperature change due to unmitigated global
warming ONLY will leave global GDP per capita 23% lower in 2100 ( Burke et al., 2015)

Secondly, they conclude that both the size and the direction of the temperature effect depend on the
starting temperature based on RCP 8.5 scenario.

Countries with an average yearly temperature greater than 13°C (55°F) will see decreased economic
growth as temperatures rise. For cooler countries, warming will be an economic boon.

Based on the analysis, rich and poor countries respond similarly at any temperature, but the impact
of warming is nonetheless much greater on poor countries, because they are mostly in regions that are
already warm.

A Citigroup report released last month found that minimizing temperature rises to 2.7ºF (1.5ºC)
could minimize global GDP loss by $50 trillion compared to a rise of 8.1ºF (4.5ºC) in the coming
decades.
 Examples of climate change impacts
• 1.1 to 3.2 billion people will experience
increased water scarcity by 2080
• Crop revenues could fall by 90% by 2100
in more vulnerable continent like
Africa
• 20-30% of species could be at risk of extinction
if increases in warming >1.5-2.5°C
• These expressions of risk are determined
fundamentally by location in time and space
Distribution of CC vulnerability
Year
2050 9 Severe vulnerability
7 Moderate
6 Moderate
5 Modest
4 Modest
3 Little
2 Little
No data
Year 2100
10 Extreme
9 Severe
8 Serious
7 Moderate
6 Moderate
5 Modest
No data
THE IMPACT OF WEATHER AND CLIMATE ON SOCIETY
There is widespread appreciation for the fact that the value of weather, climate,
and environmental data, information, and forecasts is growing in importance to
the U.S. economy (e.g., Colgan and Weiher, 2003). According to some
estimates, up to 40 percent of the approximately $10 trillion U.S. economy is
affected by weather and climate events annually
Weather affects

aviation,
air quality,
health,
ground and marine transportation,
defense,
agriculture,
fisheries,
water,
energy,
construction,
tourism,
and many other sectors of the economy.

Even “good” weather can cause problems in this complex society; for
example, one unexpectedly warm winter day in the Northeast can cost
utility companies millions of dollars a day in unused energy.
 Protocols of finding solution to environmental
change and its impacts on sustainable
development
• 1992: UN Conference on Environment and Development – Earth
Summit, in Rio de Janeiro
– Rio Declaration on Environment and Development
– Agenda 21
– Convention on Biological Diversity
– Forest Principles
– Framework Convention on Climate Change

• 2002: World Summit on Sustainable Development – Johannesburg

(Rio+10)
– Johannesburg Declaration

• 2012, May 14-16, UN Conference on Sustainable Development – Rio

de Janeiro (Rio+20)
– UN General Assembly Resolution A/RES/64/236 - 24 December
2009: held at the United Nations Conference on Sustainable
Development (UNCSD) in 2012 - also referred to as 'Rio+20' or
'Rio 20'
 The Rio+20
Conference
Three objectives: Two themes:

 securing renewed  green economy

political commitment within the context
to sustainable of sustainable
development development and
 assessing the poverty
progress and
eradication
implementation gaps  institutional
in meeting already framework for
agreed commitments sustainable
 addressing new and development
emerging challenges

20 Major Groups &

 Emerging issues in Rio+ PEOPLE

summit
Focus on:
• Green Economy
• International Environmental
Governance (contributing to ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPMENT

International Governance for

Sustainable Development)
The three interlinked nexus of green
economy as identified in Rio+ summit
 Since Rio+: COP21 Paris

• Countries develop and adopt nationally-determined

contributions
– May include both mitigation and adaptation components
• Countries continue process to develop National Adaptation
Plans
• Other national climate strategies also being developed and/or
implemented
• Parties prepare for next ‘cycle’ to increase ambition – either
2020 or shortly afterwards.
• Implementation of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
begins
COP 21 PARIS AGREEMENT
 Key Messages to COP 21

“The Paris Agreement allows

each delegation and group
of countries to go back home
with their heads held high.
Our collective effort is worth
more than the sum of our
individual effort. Our
responsibility to history is
immense”
Laurent Fabius, President of
COP 21 and French Foreign
Minister
 Key Messages to COP 21

“While the post-industrial

period may well be
remembered as one of the
most irresponsible in history,
humanity at the dawn of the
twenty-first century will be
remembered for having
generously shouldered its
grave responsibilities”
The Holy Father Pope Francis
 Key Messages to COP 21

“I believe this moment can

be a turning point for the
world. The Paris agreement
establishes the enduring
framework the world needs
to solve the climate crisis. It
creates the mechanism, the
architecture, for us to
continually tackle this
problem in an effective way.”
Barak Obama, President of the
United States of America
 The Concept of Green Economy
 The green economy is defined as an economy that aims at reducing
environmental risks and ecological scarcities, and that aims for sustainable
development without degrading the environment.

 The 2011 UNEP Green Economy Report argues "that to be green, an

economy must not only be efficient, but also fair.

 Fairness implies recognising global and country level equity dimensions,

particularly in assuring a just transition to an economy that is low-carbon,
resource efficient, and socially inclusive."
 Green Growth: Adapting to changing realities for
development

Existing and Emerging Challenges

to Africa’s Development


 Rapid Population Growth • [Insert Picture]

 Urbanization
 Globalization , economic volatility
and shifting consumption patterns*
 Uneven economic growth
 Lack of energy access
 Lack of access to markets
 Lack of education
 Air and water pollution
 Land degradation *
 Depletion of natural resources *
 Disaster Risk and Climate change *
• Existing and Emerging Challenges to Africa’s Development
•
•
•
Problems in Africa: Population Growth and Demographic Change

Population Growth has

implications for:
• Food Security
• Consumption patterns
• Natural Resource Use
• Land
• Urban and Rural Infrastructure
• Public services
Africa’s total population is projected to
increase from 1 billion to about 1.6
 Population growth needs to be billion by 2030. The trend is
turned into an advantage accompanied by an increase in working-
(“demographic dividend”) age and urban populations.
through forward looking Source: AfDB, Adapted from United
education, skills development Nations Economic & Social Affairs,
and economic diversification Population Division
 Climate Change

Mitigation
• Low aggregate/per capita emissions, but:
• Avoiding dangerous levels of global
warming requires global action (with
differentiated responsibilities)
 Development/growth needs to be
decoupled from greenhouse gas emissions
 Mitigation opportunities for Africa: RE
Potential, Carbon Sequestration in Forestry Most of Africa’s crops will likely be adversely
affected by climate change: Projections for 2045-65
and Agriculture Sectors relative to 1961-2000
(Source: Schlenker and Lobell 2009)
Adaptation
• Africa is already insufficiently adapted to current climatic hazards, e.g. windstorms
(cyclones), floods, droughts, resulting in disaster and famines
• Among most vulnerable regions to climate change due heavy natural resource
dependency of livelihoods and economic sectors and limited adaptive capacity
• Sensitive sectors include agriculture (food security), urban (disaster risk), health
(water and vector borne diseases)
 Climate Risk Management is essential to Green Growth and Sustainable
Development
 Land Degradation

Land degradation: • [Map to be inserted]

• …undermines land productivity
and poses a risk to food security
• …impacts on the quality of
ecosystem services
• …deforestation and soil
degradation contribute to climate
change
 Green Growth requires
integrative approaches to land-
use, focused on increasing
productivity and food-security,
while minimizing degradation of Land degradation affects large parts of
Africa’s natural assets Africa.
 Economic resilience in a globalized world

• Globalization provides new

opportunities, but also creates
new risks through increasing
inter-dependence

 Increasing resilience to exogenous Changes in world price’s for key African

economic shocks is critical, as agriculture exports during 2012. African
African economies move forward livelihoods and economies are heavily
dependent on agriculture. Increasing
integration into world markets provides
opportunities for growth but also
increasing exposure to market price
fluctuations.
Source: AfDB
 Advancing Green Growth:
Proposed Guiding Principles for Engagement in Africa

Development-Centered: Emphasis on growth and poverty alleviation

Client-Oriented: African countries choose their development pathways.

Inclusive: Aims at promoting gender equitable and pro-poor economic

growth.

Participatory: A harmonized approach to Green Growth is needed at the

country, regional and global level, aligning the skills and comparative
advantages of stakeholders.
Green Economy as solution to socio-economic problems
Economic benefits in Africa
– Reduced poverty and social inequality
– Increased economic growth and employment
– Improved training and skills
– Increased productivity and increased commodity and agricultural yields
– Improved energy security

Social benefits
– Improved competitiveness and trade balances
– Better public services
– Improved health outcomes

Environmental Benefits

- Sustainable management of natural assets and resources

-Reduced GHG and other emissions
-Better adaptation to climate change and resilience to natural disasters
-Improved environmental quality
 How Africa can harness green economic for
development

Leap-frog to efficient technologies: The urgent need to up-scale Africa’s

energy, transport an urban infrastructure, represents the opportunity to leap-
frog to energy and resource efficient solutions with co-benefits for human
health (e.g. reduction of air pollution) and the environment (e.g. maintenance
of ecosystem goods and services)

Africa’s new asset – carbon: Maintaining/increasing the carbon stored in

Africa’s forests and land represents to limit global warming constitutes an
opportunity for accessing new and emerging revenue streams, e.g. REDD+ (a
performance based payment transfer scheme for reducing emissions from
deforestation and degradation)

Harness the demographic dividend: Africa’s total population as well as the

working age population is increasing rapidly. With appropriate education and
capacity development, this represents need opportunities for economic
diversification and business development.
The Nigeria
Experience
Socio economic impact of Climate Change on Nigeria –
Coastal Environment

Rising sea Levels (RSL)

 sea level rise would increase erosion and flooding along

coastlines, threatening many cities

 RSL would cause inundation along more than 70% of the

Nigerian coastline placing land at risk many kilometer
inland (Awosika et al., 1992)

 With a 1-m rise up to 600km2 of land would be at risk in

Lagos, and other smaller towns along the coast.

 For the mud coast of Ondo State, a 1-m rise will place more
than 2000km2 of land at risk.
 Marine Life /Crop Yield.

 Temp can subtly affect the biological process e.g. numb of eggs laid,
incubation, feeding rate and other physiological processes.

 Changes in air temp and ppt. affect fisheries by altering habitat

availability or quality (carpenter et al., 1992)

 An increase in temp will result in drier condition in some regions of

Nigeria as the rainfall pattern will change.

 This will lead to drought resulting in lower crop yield from farming.

 Drier condition will also increase the risk of forest fires which
damage ecosystems and release more of the green house gases
into the air.
 Human Health and Heat waves

 Increase in temperature will lead to increased burden from

cardio-respiratory and infectious tropical diseases;

 Increase risk of heat-related mortality, especially for the elderly,

chronically sick, very young and socially isolated;

 Increased morbidity and mortality from heat waves, floods and

droughts;

 Increased use and stress on air conditioning and other cooling

mechanism during heat waves lead to increase in energy
consumption and greater release of CFCs into the atmosphere
 Infrastructure
 Without consideration of the oil wells the greatest value at risk in the Niger
Delta will be over US$1.3Billion with a 0.2-m sea level rise to almost
US$14billion with a 2-m rise (Teme, 2005).

 With the oil wells, it will increase to about US$2.2 billion with 0.2m rise to
more than US$19 billion for a 2m rise.

 With 0.2-m sea level rise, it is estimated that more than 700,000 people
will be displaced. A 1-m rise will cause more than 3 million people stands
at risk while with 2-m rise more than 10 million people will migrate based
on the present population (Awosika et al., 1992).
Capital Value at risk in Lagos State with SLR of 0.5 and 1.0
LGA VALUE AT RISK WITH SLR
(in U. S. billion Dollars)
0.5m 1.0m
Eti Osa 15.0 25.0
Lagos Island 8.1 14.0
Lagos Mainland 6.5 12.0
Shomolu 4.2 6.0
Surulere 3.1 5.0
Ikeja 2.8 4.0
Oshodi – Isolo 2.6 4.0
Mushin 2.4 4.0
Ibeju – Lekki 1.8 3.0
Ojo 1.8 3.0
Agege 1.6 3.0
Badagry 1.4 2.0
Alimosho 1.1 2.0
Ikorodu 0.3 0.5
Epe 0.3 0.5
Source: Ojo, 2001 TOTAL 53.0 88.0
Capital values at risk in Eti-Osa Local Government area with SLR of 1.0m
SOCIO – ECONOMIC PROPERTY TYPE VALUE IN BILLION U. S.
Dollars

Residential Buildings 12.0

Land 6.8
Embassies 2.4
Oil Companies 1.5
Commercial Activities (Including Apapa Port 0.8
Complex)
Industries 0.2
Social Services and values (Roads, Schools, 0.8
Hospitals, Communication systems, Etc.)
Banks 0.2
TOTAL 24.7
Source: Ojo,
 What We Can Do in our Emerging green economy

R E D U C E CO 2
EMISSIONS
1. Is it achievable?
2. Action is essential
at every level
• Individual
• Corporate

Photo courtesy of 7summits.com

• Local
• State
• Federal
• International

3. Critical Steps
 What We Can Do
Is it Achievable?
Individual action
 Encourage the use of vehicles that
have more mile per gallon of fuel. Is 1. Conserve
your vehicle of low emission?
2. Consume efficiently
 Buy energy efficient appliances

 Plant trees, which absorb carbon

3. Use renewables
Global Warming: The Greatest Threat © 2006 Deborah L. Williams

dioxide from the atmosphere 4. Be involved

 Admonish rash and indiscriminate
bush burning and cutting of forest
woods

 Educate others: Let friends and

family know about these practical,
energy-saving steps that can help to
save money while protecting the
environment.
 What We Can Do

Energy Efficiency: Two Examples

Compact Fluorescents
 Four to six times more efficient
 Estimated savings =
100 pounds of CO2 / year
per bulb

We may need to start importing

Hybrid Cars
Because it
 Saves money on fuel
Estimated savings =
5,600 pounds of CO2 /
year
 What We Can Do

Government Actions
 Increase in price of Kerosene is not environment friendly! It
leads to forest depletion and increases CO 2 release.

 Regular certification of big Lorries and trailers by Governments

to ensure minimal emission and hence reduce pollution of the
environment. It also constitutes danger to other road users.
(Imagine the number of polluting trailers on Nigeria roads!)

 Plant trees, which absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere

 Proper funding of scientific research and public discussion on

global warming and solutions such as alternative energy

 Fund alternate source of energy e.g. Solar and wind Energy

Government Actions
National:
• Parliamentary Resolution
• Establishment of climate change Commission
• Passing and enforcing stoppage of gas flaring by oil and
gas companies in Niger Delta
For the sake of current
and
State:
future generations,
• Climate Change Commission at state level
we need to demand
Local:
• Global,
Planting of trees Federal, State,
• Cleaner environment
and
• Bye-laws Localburning
against indiscriminate action!
A step forward, two steps backward????
Marshall Burke, Solomon M. Hsiang & Edward Miguel (2015) Global non-linear effect of
temperature on economic production , Nature 527
(7577), 235–239 ,doi:10.1038/nature15725
Thank you for your
attention