Climate Change and Human-

Induced Global Warming

 The Greenhouse Effect
A normal climatic warming effect caused by
permitting incoming solar radiation but inhibiting
outgoing terrestrial radiation.
Three gases are the primary cause:
• Carbon Dioxide (CO2)

• Methane (CH4)
• Water Vapor (H2O)

The effect is possible because outgoing earth

radiation is of much longer wavelengths than
incoming insolation and it gets caught or trapped in
the atmosphere.
 The Greenhouse Effect
• Keeps Earth’s average temperature 35ºC warmer (16ºC now, -20 ºC otherwise)

• Human role? ‘A heated debate’

Venus 480ºC
thick carbon dioxide

Mars -62 ºC
little carbon dioxide
The Carbon Cycle
b
 Now to the most ominous symptom
of all: a fever that’s rising fast.
The 10 hottest years on record in order:

2010
2005
1998
2003
2002
2009
2006
2007
2004
2001

Source: National Climate Data Center (NOAA). 2011. Global Surface Temperature Anomalies. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/
 Note that very recent rate of increase
greatly exceeds anything in last 1000 years.

Source: International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2001

Note correlations in the data.
650,000 years of climate and CO2
 The Earth’s temperature was remarkably
stable over the 10,000 years.

The yellow arrow indicates when the

first agricultural towns were built.
Source: Intergovermental Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA). 2004. http://www.acia.uaf.edu/pages/scientific.html
 Changes in Temperature and
Solar Radiation
Milankovitch Cycles explain much (60%+) of the observed
temperature changes over hundreds of thousands of years:

•40,000 year cycle: +/- 1.5° change in

Earth's tilt
• 100,000 year cycle: Orbital
eccentricity of the elliptical orbit of the
Earth. Shape of the orbit changes.
• 21,000 year cycle: perihelion shifts
throughout the year

The most recent ice age lasted 100, 000 years. We are currently
in an interglacial period called the Holocene.
 We continue to increase our
Carbon dioxide levels are still rising in her lungs.
consumption of fossil fuels.

Source:U.S.
Source: Worldwatch Institute.Research
Global Change 2007. Vital Signs 2007-2008.
Program. 2009. Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S. www.globalchange.gov.
 How much warmer will it get?

Source: U.S. Global Change Research Program. 2009. Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S. www.globalchange.gov.
 Climate
models
suggest that
the changes
are just
beginning now
and will
accelerate
rapidly.
 Global Warming Effects
Human-induced rise in CO2 levels is already leading to
increased greenhouse forcing and unnatural warming of
atmosphere.
• Likely future effects:
• Increased storminess, more droughts, more intense
downpours
• More intense hurricanes and, possibly, tornadoes
• Rising sea level (.36 to 2.5 feet) in 100 years (IPCC, 2007)*
• Loss of farmable land, especially in arid regions
• Extinction of thousands of species
• Loss of nearly all coral reef
• Increased range of tropical diseases
• Flooding of low-lying coastal regions
* IPCC estimate does not include Greenland Ice Sheet
“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from
observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures,
widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level. “

IPCC Report, 2007

 So is sea level rise happening? How much?
Sea level rise is not well understood. In their
2001 report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change stated that global warming should cause sea
levels to rise 0.11 to 0.77 meters (0.36 to 2.5 feet) by
2100. When added to storm surges and high tides, these
small changes may have large effects. Moreover,
because Greenland’s ice sheet is not well understood it
was not included in these estimates. It represents much
of the ice on Earth.

Source: UN IPCC, 2001

Source: UN IPCC, 2001
 Global
Warming?

Climate change will lead to more chaotic and unpredictable weather:

"Climate change will bring warm, wet weather, which will encourage
plants to grow, followed by long periods of drought, during which they
will burn." - Meinrat Andreae, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, August 2001.
 She is already suffering frequent hot
flashes, dehydration, sweats, and
chills.

Hurricane Katrina, 2005

Glaciers are melting much faster
than predicted.
2012

The yellow line represents 30 year average sea ice minimum extent.
 Extreme weather events are
becoming more common; severe
droughts, floods, fires, heat
waves, blizzards are all
increasing in frequency.

Sources: Min, S.-K. et al. Nature 470, 378-381 (2011); Pall, P. et al. Nature 470, 382-385
Lake Hindmarsh,
(2011); Stott, P. A. etVictoria, Australia.
al. Nature 432, 610-614 May, 2007
Queensland, Australia. January, 2011
 Difference in average temperature
40,000 – 50,000 (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2004) from 2003,
covering the date range of July 20 - August 20.

people diedhottest
It was the as a
result
summer of the
in record
heat wave that
Europe in 1500
scorched Europe in
years.
August 2003.

France, 2003

Source: Larsen, J. Earth Policy Institute. 2006. Setting the Record Straight: More than 52,000 Europeans Died from Heat in
Summer 2003. http://www.earth-policy.org/index.php?/plan_b_updates/2006/update56
One degree of temperature
change in the last 100 years
has led to four times as many
fires in the American West.

Station Fire, 2009

 Surface water will decrease in the U.S. Southwest.

Source: U.S. Global Change Research Program. 2009. Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S. www.globalchange.gov.
 Global temperature change will vary
• Sea surface temperatures will also increase as oceans
absorb more heat.
– May not have more storms, but storms will be stronger and
longer
 Projected changes in precipitation

•High latitudes = increased precipitation

•Low and middle latitudes = decreased precipitation will worsen
water shortages in developing countries
 U.S. Global Change Research Program (2008)

Highlighted past
effects and
predicted future
impacts of climate
change in U.S.
 Are we responsible for climate change?
• The IPCC 2007 report concluded that it is more
than 90% likely that most global warming is due
to humans.*
• In 2005, the national academies of 11 nations
issued a joint statement urging political leaders
to take action. By 2010 more than 30 countries
National Academies of Science had
such statements.
• The debate on climate change is fanned and
funded by corporate and oil industry skeptics.
The science is clear and unequivocal.

* The majority of signatories argued that this figure should have been 99%, but China, among others, protested.