CE 5315 Climate Science for Engineers

Simone Fatichi
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, NUS
Room: E1A-05-12
Email: ceesimo@nus.edu.sg
Course Overview (Climate Science for Engineers - 13
weeks)
• Introduction to atmospheric science and climatology. Air masses. The components of the
Earth system. Brief history of climate.
• Thermodynamics of the dry and wet atmosphere. Vertical temperature gradients, stability.
• Cloud formation and physics. Precipitation formation, physics and precipitation types.
• Physics of radiation. Shortwave and longwave radiation. Surface energy fluxes.
• Atmospheric dynamics and meteorology. Winds.
• Thunderstorms, Tropical cyclones. Extreme weather phenomena.
• Orography and Land cover effects.
• Teleconnections.
• Numerical Weather Predictions. Meteorological and climate models.
• Stochastic rainfall generators. Autoregressive models. Alternating renewal process. Neyman-
Scott rectangular pulse. Rainfall disaggregation. Multiplicative Random Cascades.
• Climate change and IPCC projections, future scenarios.
• CO2 emissions. Carbon footprints and climate targets. Geoengineering.
• Climate downscaling and weather generators.
Assessment
• Project Work (40%)

• Final Exam (60%)

- Atmospheric Science: An Introductory Survey by John M. Wallace
and Peter V. Hobbs (2006)
- Practical Meteorology: An Algebra-based Survey of Atmospheric
Science – by Roland Stull (2017)
- Terrestrial Hydrometeorology by W. James Shuttleworth (2012)
- Ecological Climatology: Concepts and Applications by Gordon
Bonan (2008)
 Atmospheric and Climate Science
Atmospheric Science is concerned with the structure and evolution of the planetary atmospheres and
with the wide range of phenomena that occur within them.

Climate science (climatology) investigates the structure and dynamics of Earth’s climate system
encompassing the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, ice sheets and more. It seeks to understand how
global, regional and local climates are maintained as well as the processes by which they change over
time (in the past and future).

Historically, climatology, which existed from the late-nineteenth century (if not earlier), was an inductive science,
in many ways more akin to geography than to physics. The emergence of contemporary climate science is closely
linked to the rise of digital computing, which made it possible to simulate the large-scale motions of the
atmosphere and oceans.

Atmospheric science, historically has been driven by the need of more accurate weather forecasts. In the last
few decades other major societal problems as acid rains, ozone hole, local forecast of extreme events came into
play. In recent decades, growing concern about anthropogenic climate change has brought a substantial interest
for climate research.

Additionally, meteorological phenomena such as thunderstorms, cyclones, snow flakes, jet streams, touch our lives
by affecting how we dress, how we travel, what we can grow, where we live, and sometimes how we feel.
Atmospheric and Climate Science

Image Source: https://www.viewbug.com/blog/beautiful-weather-photo-contest-winners

 Atmospheric and Climate Science

Typical fundamental questions in atmospheric science and climatology are:

• What is controlling the Earth’s climate?

• Why a given climate occurs in a given place?

• When, why and in which time-scales the climate is changing?

• What are the physical principles behind weather phenomena and weather
extremes?

• Can we predict the weather? and the climate?

• How do we account for climate variability in engineering design?

 Why studying “Climate Science for Engineers”?
Engineers needs to know “basic concepts” of atmospheric science. Weather events have been always interacting
with the built infrastructure, therefore it is important to have knowledge of how weather systems form and evolve.
Additionally, engineering works, with a design life of 20, 30, 50 or more years will likely see significant changes in
the climate in their lifetimes, changes that will need to be considered in their design and operation over a complete
life cycle in the interests of public health, safety, and welfare.
Most engineering disciplines will be touched by climate change, including civil, environmental, transportation,
material engineering.

• The cost of climate change to society is difficult to evaluate, but there are some indicators (as insurance claims)
that this is increasingly rapidly.

• We need to be prepared for the increased probability and consequences of severe natural hazards and long-
term climate modifications as a result of greenhouse gas emissions (e.g., extreme heat events, extreme
rainfall, deteriorated water and air quality, sea level rise, increasing forest fires and diseases, reduced
biodiversity, etc.)

• We need to design mitigation and adaptation strategies, which are technically, financially, socially and
environmentally acceptable solutions.

• We need to be pro-active and adapt infrastructures (e.g., buildings, sewage systems) to cope with present and
new climatic conditions.
 “Climate Science for Engineers”

Zhengzhou, China July 20, 2021

New York City’s subway, Hurricane Sandy October 29, 2012

Number of days per year above deadly threshold

Mora et al., 2017, NCC

Typhoon Haiyan, Tacloban, Philippines, 8 Nov. 2013 The Pejar Dam, southwest of Sydney, Australia, 21 April 2006
Image Sources: https://fortune.com/2021/08/07/sponge-city-concept-zhengzhou-flooding-china-climate-change/
https://research.noaa.gov/article/ArtMID/587/ArticleID/2472/Climate-change-to-make-hot-droughts-hotter-in-the-US-southern-plains
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2013/11/08/typhoon-haiyan-philippines/3473495/
http://peonyden.blogspot.com/2006/11/country-out-there-is-burning.html
 Weather and Climate
Weather: the conditions in the air above the Earth such as wind, precipitation, atmospheric pressure, cloud cover,
air temperature and humidity, especially at a particular time over a particular area.

Climate is the long-term average of weather, typically averaged over a period of 30 years. In a broader sense,
climate is the state of the components of the climate system, which includes the ocean and ice on Earth. Climate
depends not only on atmospheric processes, but also on physical, chemical, and biological processes involving
other components of the Earth system.
Climate is what you expect;
weather is what you get

Factors that can shape climate are called climate forcings or "forcing mechanisms". Additionally, there are a
variety of climate change feedbacks that can either amplify or diminish the initial forcing. There are also
key thresholds which when exceeded can produce rapid or irreversible changes. The main forcings are:

• variations in solar radiation, variations in the Earth's orbit (Milankovitch cycles);

• variations in the reflectivity of the continents, atmosphere, and oceans (albedo);
• tectonic forces, e.g., mountain-building and continental drift;
• changes in greenhouse gas concentrations (e.g., volcano eruptions, anthropogenic emissions).

Weather forecasts (meteorology)

Nowcasting – very short-term weather forecasting (meteorology / civil defence)
Climate projections (climatology)
 Climate
Climate is defined by the statistical properties of the weather (mean, variance, higher-order moments, extremes)

IPCC, 2001

Climate variability refers to variations in the mean state and other statistics of the climate (such as standard
deviations, the occurrence of extremes, etc.) on all spatial and temporal scales beyond that of individual
weather events, typically from months to decades. Variability may be due to natural internal processes within
the climate system (internal variability), or to variations in natural or anthropogenic external forcing (external
variability).

Climate change refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g., by using statistical
tests) by changes in the mean and/or higher order statistics, and that persists for an extended period, typically
decades or longer. Climate change may be due to natural internal processes, external forcings, or to
anthropogenic activities (e.g., land-use, greenhouse gas concentration).
 Atmosphere
Mostly the lowest 50 km (stratosphere + troposphere) and even
more so the lowest 10 km are important for climatic processes.

The troposphere is the lowest layer of Earth's atmosphere and is

also where nearly all weather conditions take place. It contains 75-
80% of the atmosphere's mass and 99% of the total mass of water
vapor and aerosols. The average height of the troposphere is 15-17
km in the tropics, and 7-9 km in the polar regions in winter. The total
average height of the troposphere is ~13 km.

The stratosphere is the second major layer of Earth's atmosphere.

Temperature increases with height in the stratosphere. Winds in the
stratosphere can far exceed those in the troposphere. The
stratosphere contains the remaining atmosphere mass to include
together with the troposphere 99.9%.

The atmospheric pressure is the pressure exerted by the weight

(per unit area) of the air in the overlying column:
 P = atmospheric pressure [Pa]
P   a  g  dz [Pa] or [mbar]
ρa= air density [kg m-3]
g= gravity acceleration [m s-2]
z z= Altitude/height [m]
Image Source: https://www.bas.ac.uk/about/antarctica/geography/weather/atmosphere/
 Air Masses
An air mass is a large volume of air defined by its temperature and water vapor content shaped by conditions at
the Earth surface. It is the “land surface” that creates air masses. Air masses cover many hundreds or thousands
of kilometers and adapt to the characteristics of the surface below them. They are classified according to latitude
(equatorial (E), tropical (T), polar (P), arctic (A)) and their continental (c) or maritime (m) source regions.

Image Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_mass

 Troposphere atmospheric composition
Atmospheric CO2 March 2015

Water vapor, August 2021

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmosphere_of_Earth

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/global-maps/MYDAL2_M_SKY_WV
 Components of the Earth System
Climate depends not only on fluid mechanics and thermodynamics of atmospheric processes, but also on physical,
chemical, and biological processes involving other components of the Earth system.

 Atmosphere

 Oceans
 Cryosphere
 Terrestrial biosphere
 Tectonic activity and volcanism

 Water cycle
 Carbon cycle

Image Soruce: https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/climate-and-ecosystems-comprehensive-earth-system-models/

 Oceans
The oceans cover 72% of the area of the Earth’s surface and they reach an extreme depth of nearly 11 km. Their
average depth is 3.6 km or 2.6 km over the entire Earth surface.
The specific heat of ocean water is much larger than
Average salinity: s = 35 g salt / 1 kg H2O that of air, the top 2.5 m of the ocean holds as much
Average density: ρ = 1020-1030 kg m-3 heat as the entire atmosphere above it.
In addition, the heat stored within the oceanic mixed
  f  s, T , P layer provides a source for heat that drives global
variability such as El Niño. Ocean heat storage is further
buffering winter to summer thermal fluctuations.
Density of the water in the wind-stirred (thermocline), mixed
Sea Surface Temperature
layer (2-200 m) is smaller than the density of the water below
it.

Volumetric Heat Capacity

C p,vol , H2O  4.170 MJ m-3 K-1
C p,vol ,air  0.0012 MJ m-3 K-1
1982-1995

Image Source: http://app.earth-

Figure 2.2 Wallace and Hobbs 2006 observer.org/data/basemaps/images/global/ModernSST_512/ModernSST_512.html
 Ocean Circulation
The ocean circulation is composed of a wind-driven component and a thermohaline component. The wind-
driven circulation dominates the surface currents, but it is largely restricted to the topmost few hundred meters.
The circulation deeper in the oceans is dominated by the slower thermohaline circulation related to density
gradients related to thermal and salinity differences.

Thermohaline currents Wind-driven Surface currents

PSS: Practical Salinity Scale Units – 35 average for seawater

Image Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermohaline_circulation Image Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_current

 Ocean Primary Production
June 2016
Virtually all the sunlight that reaches the
surface of the ocean is absorbed within
the topmost hundred meters (euphotic
zone). In this layer, where phytoplankton
is active the water is enriched in dissolved
oxygen (a product of photosynthesis) and
depleted in nutrients and dissolved
carbon).
The maintenance of high primary
productivity (i.e., photosynthesis) requires
a continual supply of nutrients.

Higher productivity regions are regions of

deep water upwelling that contribute
nutrients to the euphotic zone.

euphotic zone 透光区

dysphotic zone 贫光区
aphotic zone ⽆光区 December 2008

Image Source: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/global-maps/MY1DMM_CHLORA/MOD17A2_M_PSN

 The Cryosphere
The term cryosphere refers to components of the Earth system
comprised of water in its solid state or in which frozen water is
an essential component. It changes solar reflectivity and
thermal inertia of the Earth. Melting in polar regions can affect
global sea level and oceanic thermohaline circulation.

Continental ice sheets, dominated by Antarctica

and Greenland, their fate depends on the mass balance
between ice formation and depletion.

Sea ice covers a larger area of the Earth’s surface

than the continental ice sheets but with typical thicknesses of
only 1–3 m, its mass is orders of magnitude less than
continental ice.

Land snow cover occupies an even larger area of

the northern hemisphere than sea ice and it varies
much more widely from week to week and month to
month than does sea ice.
Figure 2.12 Wallace and Hobbs 2006

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ERxRoe9ZSBI&t=54s
 The Cryosphere
Much of the ice flow toward the periphery of
continental ice-sheets or glaciers tends to be
concentrated in relatively narrow, fast-
moving ice streams tens of kilometers in
width.

Images Source: https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2616/core-questions-an-introduction-to-ice-cores/

https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-are-ice-cores-24302 Smith et al 2020, Science
 Permafrost
Permafrost is ground that continuously remains frozen for two or more years. It profoundly influences terrestrial
ecology and human activities over large areas of Siberia, Alaska, and northern Canada.

Image Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permafrost

Obu et al 2019, Earth Sc. Rev.
 Terrestrial Biosphere
Much of the impact of climate upon animals and humans is through its role in regulating the condition and
geographical distribution of forests, grasslands, tundra, and deserts, i.e., the elements of the terrestrial (land)
biosphere. Biomes are distinct biological communities (plant and animal species) that have formed in response to a
shared physical climate (e.g., precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation).
The terrestrial biosphere feeds back upon the climate through its effects on land-atmosphere exchange and energy
partition (affecting the hydrological cycle, ET), reflective properties of the surface (albedo), roughness and thus
momentum transfer.

Image Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biome

 Tectonic and Volcanic processes
Earth’s crust and mantle also take part in chemical transformations that mediate the composition of the
atmosphere on timescales of tens to hundreds of millions of years.
Collisions between plate boundaries are often associated with subduction of oceanic lithosphere, volcanic activity
and with the uplift of mountain ranges. Changes in topography affect climate. Volcanic eruptions also affect climates
in long and short temporal scales by modifying atmospheric composition.

Image Source: https://www.britannica.com/science/plate-boundary

ELEMENTS of the HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE
 The Water Cycle
Storages

Fluxes

Storages expressed as 1000 km3 = 1012 m3

Fluxes expressed as 1000 km3/yr = 1012 m3/yr

Abbott et al 2019 Nat. Geo.

 Moisture Divergence
Hydrology

dS
 Pr  ET  Qi  Qo
dt

Meteorology/Climatology

dS
 Pr  ET  T
dt

S: Storage [mm]
Pr: Precipitation [mm/dt]
ET: Evaporation/Evapotranspiration [mm/dt]
Qi: Incoming Flux (e.g., streamflow) [mm/dt]
Qo: Outgoing Flux (e.g., streamflow) [mm/dt]
∇T: lateral transport of moisture/liquid water
[mm/dt]
The carbon cycle: “A key plot”

Source: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
 The terrestrial carbon sink
The biosphere provided likely one of the largest “ecosystem service” that humankind
has received in the last 50 years.

11.5 GtC yr-1

47% (2010-19)

CO2 flux (GtC yr-1)

CO2 flux (GtC yr-1)

22% (2010-19)

Friedlingstein et al. 2020 ESSD

YEAR 31% (2010-19)

Imaage Source: https://www.nationalgeographic.org/activity/protecting-biodiversity-amazon-rain-forest/
1 ton C = 3.66 ton CO2 https://www.britannica.com/science/taiga YEAR
 The (fast) Carbon Cycle
The carbon cycle is of interest from the
point of view of climate because it regulates
the concentrations of two most important
greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide (CO2)
and methane (CH4).

The (non-fossil) carbon in land is mostly

stored in plant biomass and soil.

The carbon in the oceanic reservoir exists

mostly as bicarbonate ions (HCO3- ), which
controls the pH of oceans. An increase in
CO2 increases ocean acidity. A fraction of
this carbon, if Ca2+ ions are available,
deposits in the deep ocean sediments.

The organic and inorganic carbon reservoirs

in the Earth’s crust are both very large and
their cycle is very slow (10-100 millions
years). Human utilization of "fossil fuels”
created an exception. Fluxes expressed in GtonC/yr = PgC/yr
Storages in GtonC = PgC Image Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_cycle
 Earth’s Climate over Millions of years
The Earth is roughly 4.5 billion years old, life originated 3.7-4.2 billion years ago, oxygen rose around 2.4-2.2
billion years ago, animals appear around 580 millions year ago, vascular plants around 440-480 millions years
ago, terrestrial vertebrates around 360-380 millions years ago, and the human being roughly 2.5 millions year
ago.
Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum
Cretaceous–Tertiary extinction event

Recovery from ice age

Late Paleozoic ice age Permian–Triassic extinction event

Last Glacial Maximum

Image Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geologic_temperature_record

 Earth’s Climate over Millions of years
The balance between CO2 emission by volcanic activity and Ca2+ production through weathering and
consequent burial of deep ocean inorganic carbon in the mantle in combination with albedo feedbacks through
major glaciations are mostly determining the fate of climate over tens of million of years scale.

770-680 millions year ago ?!

Source: https://e360.yale.edu/features/how-the-world-passed-a-carbon-threshold-400ppm-and-why-it-matters

Image source: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/02/science/snowball-earth-ice-age.html

 Earth’s Climate over Millions of years (or less)
On timescales of 10,000-100,000 years also the intensity of the incoming solar radiation is playing a role,
while continental drift does on millions of years.
Levels of solar irradiance changes (Milankovitch cycles),
due to Earth:

Eccentricity: 100,000 years

Obliquity: 41,000 years
Precession: 23,000 years

Zachos et al 2001, Science

 Earth’s Climate over Thousands of years
+2°C Interglacial
The past 2.5 million years have been marked
Ice Age
by climatic swings back and forth between
extended glacial epochs in which thick ice
°C

-7°C sheets covered large areas of North America,

northern Europe, and Siberia and shorter
interglacial epochs such as the present
280 ppm one, in which only Antarctica (and sometimes
Greenland) remain ice covered.
180 ppm
ppm

Colder periods have been typically also drier

periods and with lower sea levels ( ~-120m).

Drier
ppm

Thousands of years ago

Wetter

Image Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quaternary_glaciation

Huybrechts (2002) Quat. Sc. Rev.
 The “recent” climate
The changes occurred in the last 10,000 years are relatively smaller than long-term variations (except for the last
60-100 years). However, even the minor swings of the past appear to have had important societal impacts.

Medieval Warm period IPCC 2014

Younger Dryas
Little Ice Age

Recovery from last ice-age

Image Sources:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/River_Thames_frost_fairs
https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/medieval-warm-period