Insurgency and

Counterinsurgency

Dr Chris Tripodi
Defence Studies Department
 Structure
Definitions
Continuity and change in
insurgency/terrorism
Principles of COIN
Global insurgency?
Challenges
 Insurgency
“An organised, protracted politico-
military struggle designed to weaken the
control and legitimacy of an established
government, occupying power or other
political authority while increasing
insurgent control”
 Terrorism
‘The deliberate creation and exploitation of
fear through violence or the threat of
violence in pursuit of political change.’
 Similarities?
Terrorism can be a tool of insurgency or a
process in itself.
Depending upon ideology i.e. Marxist, regime
change may well be an ultimate aim. Terrorist
becomes Insurgent?
Therefore: Insurgents and Terrorists political
by nature and may use same methods
However: Insurgents usually combine
violence with political programmes whereas
‘pure’ terrorists tend to use violence as an
end to itself.
Insurgent or Terrorist?
 Rebellion is nothing new
Alexander, Tacitus, Napoleon, Trotsky,
T.E. Lawrence…
Typology:
a) Conspiratorial
b) Foco
c) Urban
d) Maoist Protracted War
e) Identity focused
f) Composite approach/coalitions
 Conspiratorial
Few leaders and a
militant cadre or
activist party seizing
control
of government
structures or
exploiting a
revolutionary
situation. Secretive
vanguard forces.
Emerge only when
success likely
 Military-Focussed
Focus primarily upon
the use of force
rather than political
subversion. Guerrilla
Foco bands.
Insurrection itself can
create the conditions
necessary for the
overthrow of the
Government, as long
as that Govt is
Dictatorial. Armed
Guerrilla’s create and
lend impetus to
broader struggle.
 Urban
Terrorist tactics in urban areas
Sow disorder.
Incite sectarian violence.
Weaken the government.
Intimidate the population.
Kill government and opposition
leaders.
Fix and intimidate police and
military forces, limiting their
ability to respond to attacks.
Create government repression.
Does not require wider support
 Maoist protracted war
1) Strategic defensive:
Govt has more forces
than insurgent.
Insurgent seeking to
survive and generate
support.
2) Stalemate. Forces
approach equilibrium
and Guerrilla warfare
becomes most
important activity. Seek
to force populace to
lose faith in existing
Govt authority
3) Strategic
counteroffensive:
Insurgents superior in
strength and move to
destroy Govt forces.
Don’t need to go
through all three
 Identity Focused
Support based on the
common identity of
religious affiliation,
tribe, or ethnic group.
This approach is
common among
contemporary
insurgencies and is
sometimes combined
with the military-
focused approach.
May/may not have
dual military/political
approach.
 Composite Approach in
FATA/NWFP
Afghan Taliban
Pakistani Taliban
(TTP/TSNM)
Punjabi Militants
AQ/Foreign and
Regional fighters
Tribal Militants
 Lessons Learned?
EOKA: (Cyprus 1955-59).
National liberation movement
Strong religious overtones
Largely urban with strong
presence in fiercely partisan
rural areas
Insurgent blends effortlessly into
surrounding populace
Significant proportion of Greek
Cypriot population
directly/indirectly supportive.
Minority population (Turks) used
as proxies against Greeks
Insurgent uses Media and
Propaganda/Info Ops
Media monitors military
response
Insurgent enjoys external
Support
MCP: (Malaya 1948-60)
Maoist Revolutionary warfare
No religious overtones
Jungle
Insurgent different ethnicity from
bulk of population. Easy to
detect.
Broader population easy to
direct away from supporting
insurgent
No proxy actors.
No info ops/media campaign on
part of insurgent. No effective
use of propaganda.
No media overwatch restricting
military operations
Insurgent enjoys no external
support.
 Continuity and Change
19th Century insurgencies about preserving status quo.
20th century revolutionary – alter status quo. 21 st
Century?
Religious ethnic/ethnic identities have replaced
ideologies based on secular revolutionary ideals. True?
Comms/tech/interconnectedness new but grievances
and methods are not. Terrorism, subversion,
propaganda, and open warfare.
Insurgents often join loose organizations with common
objectives but different motivations and no central
controlling body, which makes identifying leaders
difficult.
New kind of scale e.g. Al Qaeda: Seeks to transform
the Islamic world and re-order its relationships with
other regions and cultures.
Global Insurgency/Global Counterinsurgency
Is AQ the only threat?
 Counterinsurgency
Principles:
– Political control
– Co-ordinated govt machinery
– Intelligence
– Separation
– Neutralisation
– Reform
Military power as supporting element
 Challenges – COIN
Relevance of military power
Measuring success
Difficulty in applying principles
Diversity of insurgency and terrorism
Money/Political cycle
Insurgencies appealing to regimes.
Allies