Measuring the Economic

Impact of Tourism in European

Emerging Markets

Presented by Elena Koroleva

 Introduction
The annual growth rate of tourism sector in the world is about 7.7% and growing yearly (WTO, 2012)

What are the ways to

How to eliminate
attract investments
complexities and Two questions are raised by private aligned with an overall
barriers to develop
the tourism industry
sectors and governments strategy to continuously
rehabilitate the
and obtain financing
infrastructure
sources for projects?
development of region?

The EU competence Europe 2020 Strategy

Developments at the two economic
Complement, support
levels Сompetitiveness in the
and coordinate the action European tourism
of the Member States in sector, supported by
tourism as the largest entrepreneurship and
economic activity in the modern industry
EU
 Measuring the economic impact of tourism
Three main analysis methods
The Analysis of Impact Analysis
Importance (Significance Shows impact of money
Analysis) spent by external tourists
Shows the size and in addition to the money
structure of tourism sector that returns from foreign
from the national accounts tourism to the domestic
data, taking into account tourism on the economy
the spending of residents, of a region (hotel,
as well as from abroad. restaurant or income or
employment )
The Cost – Benefit
Analysis
Shows achievability
and from the point
of view of society
(educational value
of tourism , impact
of tourism on the
environment)
Research hypotheses and Analysis method
Tourism plays a major role in the long
run economic growth and has an
influence across overall economy
contributing to the development of
countries in the end.
Investigated hypothesis
The evolution of the revenues generated
by the tourism industry has an impact
over Romania’s GDP and eliminates
business complexity at a macroeconomic
level, getting sustainable development in
emergent economies as a result.
Prove of hypothesis
Four selected emergent markets which is obtained by
GDP generated by direct travel and tourism industries
plus the indirect and induced contributions which
include the contribution of capital investment spending.
For the characterization of such series they have
calculated, on the base of its terms, a system of statistical
indicators, among which are: absolute change (with fixed
base or chained base), dynamic index (with fixed base or
chained base), rate of increase (with fixed base or
chained base), the average level of the absolute change,
the average index of dynamics and the average level of
growth rate/
 Descriptive statistics
Prove of hypothesis
Four member states of the European Union,
two of which being located in
the eastern part of Europe - Romania and
Hungary - and the other two in the West -
France and Spain(Descriptive analysis based on
absolute values of GDP).
The one before the integration to the European Union
(before January 1st, 2007)
The first period has recorded a racing growth and at a
constant rate of the extent to which the tourism contributed
to GDP until 2007, when we can see an increase of $ 2.92
billion (45%).
• 2005 which increased the tourism sector's contribution to
GDP by $ 4.57 billion (71.4%) compared to the previous
year(Romania’s integration into the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization 2004)
The second period was after Romania join of EU. In the
second period was growth of 23.8% of the tourism total
contribution to Romania's GDP during only the first year (f.c
2009)
• downward trend (has dased in total by up to 30.9%) until
2011 when it recorded a new increase,but an insignificant
one (8.1%)
• 2012 the contribution of tourism sector to Romania's GDP
remained almost constant. Moreover it started to return
to an upward trend in the current year
 Descriptive statistics
The chart below shows us that
Hungary has the same evolution and
approximately the same trend. Until
2008 the tourism contribution to
Hungarian PIB suffered a modification
in the sense of growth, and after this
year, the respective phenomenon
started to decrease with 15% over
the next two years.
As in the case of Romania, in 2011 the tourism industry had a
higher impact to Hungary’s gross domestic product, but the
next year it starts to diminish with the onset of the global
economic crisis.
• Tourism industry contribution to GDP during the 14 years
$7.22 (Hungary ) vs $ 1.61(Romania)
• Hungary, the rates of increase / decrease recorded being
much smaller, the greatest one having a relative value of 18%
• Share of tourism sector in the whole economy in Hungary
10.6%, as opposed to 5.2% in Romania.
 Descriptive statistics
France which has known a steady increase at a
slower rate than in the case of the states
analyzed so far regarding the extent to which
tourism contributes to national GDP(2005 slight Reference points are
decrease ). represented by each of the years 2008 and 2011,
after which the investigated phenomenon began
to decline by
9.2 % and 5.9 %.

Largest contribution of the tourism industry to

France’s GDP was noticed
in 2008 ($285.7 billion), with an augmentation of
68.5% in comparison with the year 2000.

Unlike the local tourism sector, this time the

calculated rates of increase / decrease are
smaller, the reached peak
being of 17.4% in 2004.
 Descriptive statistics
In Spain we have similar trend to
that of the other analyzed states and
a faster pace of development
compared to France and Hungary,
but a slower one than
Romania(2008 and 2011 a reference
points GDP and followed by a
decrease of about 9% of this
phenomenon.)
The 2003 modification should be emphasized
regarding the impact of the tourism sector on
Spain’s gross
domestic product, a change which represented
the most significant increase (22.2 %). Compared
to those other European countries that were the
subject of this paper, the case of Spain is
characterized
by rates of increase / decrease lower than those
calculated for Romania, but higher than those of
Hungary and France
 Conclusion
For the developed economies which were analyzed, tourism is a fundamental
industry to their economic growth because it contributes significantly to the gross
domestic product. We can also state that, during the first part of the considered
period, the tourism revenues generated in our four investigated European states
have stimulated the growth of national GDP, but after the year 2008 the global
financial crisis took command triggered a similar downturn in each of the respective
countries.. Romania is part of the countries with a remarkable expansion potential,
and this is enhanced by the evolution of this industry. Reducing business complexity
to a high extent in the Romanian tourism industry can be effectuated in the moment
when a clear and organized strategy will be found in the scope of creating
governance and higher efficiency in this sector.
Thank you for your
attention