Models of Decision

Making
Educational Leadership &
Management
 Decision Making
• A process of making choices by identifying
a problem, gathering information, and
assessing alternative solutions.
 Phases of Decision-Making
Process
• Identification phase
(Problem Recognition & Diagnosis)
• Development phase
(search of best possible solutions)
• Selection phase
(Choice of solution)
 Classical Decision Making Model
Assumes that

•Decision making is a rational process.

•Considers all possible alternatives.
•Explores all conceivable consequences
from among the alternatives
 Steps involved in CDM model
• Problem identification
• Generating alternatives
• Evaluating alternatives
• Choosing a alternative
• Implementing the decision
• Evaluating the decision
 1. Problem identification
Discrepancy between existing and desired
conditions is the major sign of problem.
Things to remember while problem
identification
• Complex problems should be divided into
sub problems
• Priorities should be set according to the
seriousness of the problem
• Problems should be specified in terms of
what, when and where, and how big the
deviations are from previous performance.
 2. Generating alternatives
• All possible alternatives should be
included
• No alternative should be eliminated too
early.
• Should have information about each
alternative
 3. Evaluating Alternatives
• All possible outcomes from each alternatives
should be considered
• Possible positive and negatives outcomes
should be assessed.
• Likelihood of each possible outcome to each
alternative must be assessed.
• Each alternative must be evaluated and
compared under certainty, risk or uncertainity.
 Certainty, Risk and uncertainity
• Certainty
when decision maker knows exactly what the
probabilities of outcomes of each alternative will
be.
• Risk
exists when decision maker estimates
probabilities of alternative outcome.
• Uncertainty
when decision maker does not know what the
probabilities of outcome of the alternative will be.
 4. Choosing an alternative
• Types of alternatives

• Good alternative
• Bland alternative
• Mixed alternative
• Poor alternative
• Uncertain alternative
 5. Implementing the decision
All conceivable problems should be
considered before implementing the
decision.
 6. Evaluating the decision
• Actual performance is measured against
specified performance.
• If discrepancy occurs, then decision
making process must be recycled.
Behavioral decision-making model
Assumes that:
•Decision makers are limited by time, knowledge,
cost and the ability to process information
•Alternative solutions are based on their own
limited experience and knowledge.
•Rationality is limited
•Impossible to generate all possible alternative
solutions
•Impossible to predict all possible consequences
of alternatives
 Satisficing
Choosing the first alternative that satisfies
minimal standards of acceptability without
exploring all possibilities.
Satisficing vs maximizing
 Contextual rationality
• It suggest that decision maker is
embedded in environmental influences
that constrain purely rational decision
making.
Cont…
• Optimal decisions are meditated by organizational
realities

Retrospective rationality
• Its about justifying the rationality of decisions that
are already made.
 Incrementalizing

• Incrementalism is a method of working by

adding to a project using many small
incremental changes instead of a few large
jumps.
• It is a process of limited comparisons of
alternative courses of action with one another.
 Vroom-Yetton normative model
It is designed to help you to identify the best
decision-making approach and leadership style to
take, based on your current situation.

It consists of three main important factors:

•Decision quality
•Decision acceptance
•timeliness
Five decision making models of
Vroom-Yetton model