WEEK 3: DEVELOPING SIMULATION

MODELS

Simulation & Modeling BCS/BCE 1

 MODEL DEVELOPMENT PROCESS
• The different phases of model development
• The products at each phase of the model
development

Simulation & Modeling BCS/BCE 2

Steps of Simulation Modeling

Step 1: Problem Formulation

Step 2: Define objective, scope,
benefits
Step 3: Collect and analyze system data

Simulation & Modeling BCS/BCE 3

 Steps of Simulation Modeling
Step 4: Model Conceptualization(CLD)
Step 5: Validate Model, the CLD
Step 6: Model Translation (CLD TO SFD)
Step 7: Build model ( SFD) and enter values
and equations
Step 8: Validate Model

Simulation & Modeling BCS/BCE 4

 Steps of Simulation Modeling
Step 9: Conduct experiments
Step 10: Presentation and Analysis of
Results
Step 11: Documentation/Reporting
Step 12: Implementation
Note: Iterations required among steps

Simulation & Modeling BCS/BCE 5

 DETAILED NOTES

MODEL DEVELOPMENT
PROCESS

Simulation & Modeling BCS/BCE 6

A Seven-Step Approach for Conducting a Successful
Simulation Study

In Figure 1: we present a seven-step

approach for conducting a successful
simulation study. Having a definitive
approach for conducting a simulation
study is critical to the study’s success in
general and to developing a valid model
in particular.

Simulation & Modeling BCS/BCE 7

 Step 1. Formulate the Problem

• Problem of interest is stated by the decision-

maker
• A kickoff meeting(s) for the simulation project
is (are) conducted, with the project manager,
the simulation analysts, and subject-matter
experts (SMEs) in attendance.

Simulation & Modeling BCS/BCE 8

 Step 1. Formulate the Problem
• The overall objectives of the study
• The specific questions to be answered by the
study (without such specificity it is impossible
to determine the appropriate level of model
detail)
• The performance measures that will be used
to evaluate the efficacy of different system
configurations

Simulation & Modeling BCS/BCE 9

 Step 1. Formulate the Problem
• The scope of the model
• The system configurations to be modeled
• The time frame for the study and the required
resources

Simulation & Modeling BCS/BCE 10

Cont.
• Step 1. Identify the Problem: Enumerate problems with an existing
system. Produce requirements for a proposed system.
• Formulate the Problem: Select the bounds of the system, the
problem or a part thereof, to be studied. Define overall objective of
the study and a few specific issues to be addressed. Define
performance measures – quantitative criteria on the basis of which
different system configurations will be compared and ranked. Identify,
briefly at this stage, the configurations of interest and formulate
hypotheses about system performance. Decide the time frame of the
study. Identify the end user of the simulation model.
 Step 2. Collect Information/Data
 

• Collect information on the system layout and

operating procedures.

• Collect data to specify model parameters and

probability distributions (e.g., for the time to
failure and the time to repair of a machine).

Simulation & Modeling BCS/BCE 12

Step 2. Collect Information/Data

•Step 2. Collect and Process Real System

Data: Collect data on system
specifications, input variables, as well as
performance of the existing system.
 Construct a Conceptual Model
• Develop Causal loop diagrams which studies
the relationship between variables
• Document the model assumptions,
algorithms, and data summaries in a written
conceptual model.

Simulation & Modeling BCS/BCE 14

Step 3. Formulate and Develop a Model
•  Develop schematics and network diagrams of the system. Translate
these conceptual models to simulation software acceptable form.
Verify that the simulation model executes as intended. Verification
techniques include traces, varying input parameters over their
acceptable range and checking the output, substituting constants for
random variables and manually checking results, and animation.
 Step 3. Is the Conceptual Model Valid?

• Perform a structured walk-through of the

conceptual model before an audience that
includes the project manager, analysts, and
SMEs. This is called conceptual-model
validation.

Simulation & Modeling BCS/BCE 16

 Is the Conceptual Model Valid?

• If errors or omissions are discovered in the

conceptual model, which is almost always the
case, then the conceptual model must be
updated before proceeding to programming in
Step 4.

Simulation & Modeling BCS/BCE 17

Step 4. Validate the Model:
•  Compare the model’s performance under known conditions with the
performance of the real system. Perform statistical inference tests
and get the model examined by system experts. Assess the
confidence that the end user places on the model and address
problems if any.
 Step 4. Program the Model

• Program the conceptual model in

either a commercial simulation-
software product or in a general-
purpose programming language
(e.g., C or C++).
• Verify (debug) the computer
program.
Simulation & Modeling BCS/BCE 19
 Step 5. Is the Programmed Model Valid?
 

• If there is an existing system, then

compare model performance
measures with the comparable
performance measures collected
from the actual system (see Step 2).
This is called results validation.

Simulation & Modeling BCS/BCE 20

 What is face validity?
• Regardless of whether there is an existing
system, the simulation analysts and SMEs
should review the simulation results for
reasonableness. If the results are
consistent with how they perceive the
system should operate, then the
simulation model is said to have face
validity.
Simulation & Modeling BCS/BCE 21
Step 5. Document Model for Future Use
• Document objectives, assumptions and input
variables in detail. Document the experimental
design.
 Implementation
1. Identify the boundaries of the system of
interest.
2. Identify the random variables, decision
variables, parameters, and the
performance measure(s).
3. Develop an objective function for the
performance measure(s) in terms of
random variables, decision variables, and
parameters.

Simulation & Modeling BCS/BCE 23

 Implementation
1. Use computer to generate the simulated
values of these random variables.
2. Compute the values of the objective
function using these simulated values of
random variables and values of decision
variables.
3. Statistical analysis.

Simulation & Modeling BCS/BCE 24

Step 7. Select Appropriate Experimental
Design: 
• Select a performance measure, a few input variables
that are likely to influence it, and the levels of each
input variable.
• Generally, in stationary systems, steady-state behavior
of the response variable is of interest. Ascertain
whether a terminating or a nonterminating simulation
run is appropriate. Select the run length.
Step 7. Select Appropriate Experimental
Design: 
• Select appropriate starting conditions. Select the length of the warm-
up period, if required. Decide the number of independent runs – each
run uses a different random number stream and the same starting
conditions – by considering output data sample size. Sample size must
be large enough (at least 3-5 runs for each configuration) to provide
the required confidence in the performance measure estimates.
Alternately, use common random numbers to compare alternative
configurations by using a separate random number stream for each
sampling process in a configuration. Identify output data most likely
to be correlated.
 Step 6. Design, Make, and Analyze
Simulation Experiments

• For each system configuration of

interest, decide on tactical issues
such as run length, warm up period,
and the number of independent
model replications.
• Analyze the results and decide if
additional experiments are required.
Simulation & Modeling BCS/BCE 27
 Step 7. Document and Present the
Simulation Results
 

• The documentation for the model (and

the associated simulation study) should
include the conceptual model (critical for
future reuse of the model), a detailed
description of the computer program,
and the results of the current study.

Simulation & Modeling BCS/BCE 28

Establish Experimental Conditions for
Runs:
•  Address the question of obtaining accurate information and the most
information from each run. Determine if the system is stationary
(performance measure does not change over time) or non-stationary
(performance measure changes over time).
• Perform Simulation Runs: Perform runs according to steps 7-8 above.
Interpret and Present Results:
• Interpret and Present Results: Compute numerical estimates (e.g.,
mean, confidence intervals) of the desired performance measure for
each configuration of interest. Test hypotheses about system
performance. Construct graphical displays (e.g., pie charts,
histograms) of the output data. Document results and conclusions.
• Recommend Further Courses of Action: This may include further
experiments to increase the precision and reduce the bias of
estimators, to perform sensitivity analyses, etc.
 Step 7. Document and Present the
Simulation Results

• The final presentation for the

simulation study should include
animations and a discussion of the
model building/validation process to
promote model credibility.

Simulation & Modeling BCS/BCE 31

STEPS IN THE SIMULTATION PROCESS
Although simulations vary in complexity from situation to situation, in
general one would have to go through the following steps:
Step 1→ Define the problem or system you intended to simulate.
Step 2→ Formulate the model you intend to use.
Step 3→ Test the model; compare its behaviour with the behaviour of the
actual problem.
Step 4→ Identify and collect the data needed to test the model.
Step 5→ Run the simulation
Step 6→ Analyze the results of the simulation and, if desired, change the
solution you are evaluating.
Step 7→ Rerun the simulation to test the new solution.
Step 8→ Validate the simulation; this involves increasing the chances of the
inferences you may draw about the real situation ...
Questions
Explain at least eight areas where simulation and modelling are
applicable a part from Budgeting and population.
Reading List
1. Louis G. Birta and Gilbert Arbez. Modelling and Simulation. 2019.
Available at:
• https
://campusvirtual.univalle.edu.co/moodle/pluginfile.php/1167280/mo
d_resource/content/1/Modelling_and_Simulation_Book.PDF
2. MCA 504 Modelling and Simulation. Available at:
• http://www.ddegjust.ac.in/studymaterial/mca-5/mca-504.pdf
3. Christopher A. Chung. SIMULATION MODELING HANDBOOK. 2017.
Available at:
• http://read.pudn.com/downloads219/ebook/1028987/Simulation_M
odeling_Handbook.pdf
video
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yKEThlGdn0I