The Theory & Practice of Diplomacy

Theory of Negotiations: 1
Pre-negotiations, round the table negotiations, building
momentum & packaging

Dr. Neville Wylie

The University of Nottingham
Theory of Negotiations: 1

• Lecture Aims

- examine the different stages / sequence of

negotiations

- explore different negotiating ‘techniques’

- set stage for seminar on ‘cross cultural

negotiations’ and simulation exercise

The University of Nottingham

Pre-negotiations: Getting started – or not

Ripeness (Zartman)
‘mutually hurting stalemate’ [MHS]

- how do parties recognize MHS?

- MHS do not necessarily presuppose the existence of a ‘zone of
possible agreement‘ (ZOPA)
- Should conflicts be allowed to continue until a MHS is reached?
- As MHS are subjective: attitudes may change
 Pre-negotiations: Getting started – or not

A.Getting Started – or
not.
… ‘strategy of attrition?’ …
‘conflict for conflict’s sake’
(domestic agenda/legitimacy
realized through existence of
conflict)
…. ‘belief in that success is
‘round the corner’
… ideological resistance to
negotiation
Pre-negotiations: Getting started – or not

Mutually Enticing Opportunities [MEOs]

- Negotiators must work towards creating
opportunities that are mutually enticing in terms
of the potential agreement’s
Timing Content Packaging Marketing

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Pre-negotiations: Getting started – or not

A. Pre-negotiations – non-committal (?) ;

exploratory ; uncertain duration

Designed to facilitate process of overcoming

(i) Mutual Hostility & Distrust

(ii) Legitimacy
(iii)Objectives: resolving issues or ending conflict?
(iv)Tendency to ‘devalue’ opponents’ concessions
Pre-negotiations: Getting started – or not

Helps Disputants focus their attention on:

(i) Relationship Building

workshops
joint fact finding missions
articulation of main issues at dispute

(ii) Best Alternative To a Negotiated Agreement (BATNA)

is any/partial agreement better than no agreement?

(iii) Existence of Super-ordinate Goals

i.e. only those that can be achieved through negotiation.
Pre-negotiations: ‘Formulas’

B. Formulas
Formulas = deliberately vague and optimistic
(but may implicitly privilege one ‘narrative’ over others

‘regime change’
‘land for peace’
‘devolution’
‘legitimization’
Pre-negotiations: ‘Formulas’

Acceptance of Formula – domestic considerations

- Democracy as an impediment to peace & nego
- Justice as an impediment to peace & nego
- Hawks are better negotiators than doves
- Importance of Secrecy for formulas – since openness
gives opportunities to lobbyists & ‘wreckers’

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Pre-negotiations: ‘Agenda setting’

C. Agenda Setting:

‘s/he who controls the agenda controls the talks’

- Agenda sets priorities and shapes outcomes

- Ordering of Agenda may privilege one side over another
- Items on the agenda may create an ongoing process
- Can they agree on common language or terminology?
- The need for agendas to satisfy domestic interests?
Pre-negotiations: ‘Structure’

D. Structure the negotiations

- ‘Face to Face’
- ‘Shuttle’
- ‘Proximity’
- Bilateral? Multilateral?
- Role of mediator (if any)

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Pre-negotiations: Venue

E. Venue
Choice reflects interests and standing of protagonists
- Prevent escalation/internationalization of the issue
by holding talks close to the focus of conflict
- Draw on ‘neutral’ venues
- Quality of facilities
- Can leaders of unstable states afford to leave? (And
if so, for how long?)
Pre-negotiations: Preparation

F. Knowing your enemy

What do we want to know?

Secrets and mysteries

How it is recovered?

What is its value?

Negotiating Table: Approaches

Approaches

(i)Set out your stall and trade points.

(ii) Set out your stall and find a middle ground

(bottom line)

(ii) ‘Getting to yes’ – what do you, and they, really

want out of the negotiations?
Negotiating Table: Approaches

What variables need to be considered?

- Perception of relative value of issues

- What is the role of culture?
- Different styles of bargaining
(integrative/distributive)
- Different attachment to face-saving?
- Cultures that invest in long-term or short term
negotiation?
Negotiating Table: Details Phase

Details

Why is the detail stage so notoriously difficult?

Very large teams of specialists

Attempts to subvert through details and definition
Real precision is required and pedantic attention to minutiae
Lower authority means more referring back
Details of each section have to linked and synchronized
Knowledge that domestic constituency will scrutinize
Diplomatic Momentum & Packaging

Momentum ~ lost

- Withdraw of senior figures

- Deliberate stalling
- Complexity overwhelms
the negotiators
- Competing priorities
- Political change at home
- Illness, accident etc.

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Diplomatic Momentum & Packaging

The danger of lulls becoming permanent

- Negotiators become demoralised

- Temptation to use lulls for own or domestic ends
- Gives parties the chance to reconsider their BATNAs
Diplomatic Momentum & Packaging

How Can momentum be regained?

Going Public
- ALWAYS dangerous, as it might aggravate
domestic (or international opposition)
- MAY force seniors to reengage
- MAY bring new people/ideas to the table
- May prompt benign intervention by 3rd parties
- BUT ALWAYS RISKY
Diplomatic Momentum & Packaging

How Can momentum be regained?

Re-packaging the Negotiations
- Offer a concession sufficiently tempting to re-
connect opponents’ with the talks
- Suspend detailed negotiations and reconsider
agenda, order of issues etc.
- Step-by-step approaches
- Refocus on your opponents’ interests: are you
missing something?
Diplomatic Momentum & Packaging

How Can momentum be regained?

Tactical devices
- Call on 3rd party assistance – mediators
Diplomatic Momentum & Packaging

How Can momentum be regained?

Tactical devices
- Use of Deadlines:
(i)If sufficient time to reach an
agreement – practical issue
and perception of time
(ii) Expectation of sanctions if
deadline is missed.
Diplomatic Momentum & Packaging

Deadlines
(i)Artificial
‘Psychological’ target dates, without direct penalties

If one party is strong enough to act unilaterally on

an issue if negotiations fail, an artificial deadline
becomes a de facto ultimatum. The threat of
unilateral action enforced the deadline. The costs
of non-agreement of the weaker party are an
effective penalty
Diplomatic Momentum & Packaging

Deadlines
(ii) Symbolic
eg. Dates of symbolic significance – esp. if
‘shared’ by both parties. (religious festivals etc.)
Increases personal/political benefits of finding an
agreement
Raises public and media pressure
The higher the importance of the date, the greater
the pressure to clinch a deal
Diplomatic Momentum & Packaging

Deadlines
(iii) Practical
External events over which negotiators have little
control that limit time available. Eg summits,
elections, end of peacekeeping mission, trade
deals etc.

NB The frequency of ‘photo-finishes’ in negotiations

suggests that deadlines may be fundamental to
the process of collective bargaining.
Diplomatic Momentum & Packaging

The ‘deadline effect’ –

Deadlines have practical implications for
the design and conduct of negotiations
Diplomatic Momentum & Packaging

But…
• Is it all about actual and perceive time-related costs?
• Do more patient parties to a dispute have an
advantage?
• Deadlines increase pressure on the participants – do
people work better under pressure
• Are agreements produced under the pressure of
deadlines ‘good’ agreements, that are likely to last?

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