Hamdard University Karachi

Energy Management and Policy

Graduate School of Engineering Sciences and Information Technology (GSESIT)

Hamdard University Karachi

Energy Management and Policy

Graduate School of Engineering Sciences and Information Technology (GSESIT)

World energy consumption rises 28% between 2015 and 2040 in the
Reference case—
World energy consumption
quadrillion Btu

2015
800

600

non-OECD
400

200 OECD

0
1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040

 Energy Information Administration

Future oil prices are another key source of uncertainty in the
projections—
World oil prices in three cases World energy consumption in three cases
real 2016 dollars per barrel quadrillion Btu

250 2015 2030 2040

1,000
225
High Oil Price case
200 800
175
150 600
125
100 Reference case 400
75 other
50 200
25 Low Oil Price case
liquids
0 0
Ref Ref Low High Ref Low High
Oil Price Oil Price
Case Case

 Energy Information Administration

In the Reference case, Asia accounts for most of the increase in
energy use in non-OECD regions—
Non-OECD energy consumption by region
quadrillion Btu

500 2015

450
400
350
300
250 Asia
200
150 Middle East
Africa
100
Americas
50 Europe and Eurasia
0
1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040

 Energy Information Administration

Energy consumption increases over the projection for all fuels other
than coal in the Reference case—
World energy consumption by energy source
quadrillion Btu
2015
250
petroleum and other liquids
200
natural gas
coal
150
renewables
100

50 nuclear

 Energy Information Administration

Projection of Long Term World Energy Supplies
Issues of availability and security

Source: SPE International (Society of Petroleum Engineers)

 Pakistan’s Energy Demand Projection

400
350 mTOE

300
250
M TOE

200
150
100
50
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
OIL GAS COAL HYDEL RENEWABLE NUCLEAR

Avg. Gr.
2007 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Rate
OIL 18.12 20.69 32.51 45.47 57.93 66.84
GAS 29.6 38.99 52.98 77.85 114.84 162.58
COAL 4.4 7.16 14.45 24.77 38.28 68.65
HYDEL 7.6 11.03 16.40 21.44 30.50 38.93
RENEWABLE 0.0 0.84 1.60 3.00 5.58 9.20
NUCLEAR 0.5 0.69 2.23 4.81 8.24 15.11
TOTAL 60.22 79.40 120.17 177.34 255.37 361.31
Hamdard University Karachi

Pakistan Electricity Demand and Generation (Gap)

30000

26105
24871
25000 23711 23734
23242

20576 20302
20000 18940 18827 18794
18467 18521 18499
Capacity (MW)

16170
14600
15000
13193
12751
12320

10000

6620
5716 5328
4743 4917 4569
5000 4227 4406

2371

0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Year

Generation Capacity (MW) Peak Demand (MW) Gap (MW)

Graduate School of Engineering Sciences and Information Technology (GSESIT)
Hamdard University Karachi

Graduate School of Engineering Sciences and Information Technology (GSESIT)

In the Reference case, net electricity generation in non-OECD
countries increases twice as fast as in the OECD—
OECD and non-OECD net electricity generation World electricity use by sector
trillion kilowatt hours quadrillion Btu
2015
2015
25,000 50
industrial
20,000 40
non-OECD
residential
15,000 30
OECD

10,000 20 commercial

5,000 10 transportation

0 0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

11

 Energy Information Administration

Hamdard University Karachi

Pakistan Electricity Generation (2008-09 to 2015-16)

Graduate School of Engineering Sciences and Information Technology (GSESIT)

Hamdard University Karachi

Peak Demand Forecast (Regression Analysis 2011)

Graduate School of Engineering Sciences and Information Technology (GSESIT)

Hamdard University Karachi

PAKISTAN POWER SECTOR - TIMELINE JOURNEY

Initially two vertically integrated utilities i.e. WAPDA and KESC, were responsible for generation,
transmission and distribution in their areas

 UPTO 70s: Performance of KESC and WAPDA was very good

 IN 80s: Some deterioration observed. Demand-Supply shortfall started
 IN 90s: Budget constraints lead the government to seek involvement of
private sector in power generation projects
 1992: Govt. prepared strategic plan to reform Pakistan power sector
 1993: Energy Task Force created, Power Policy 1994 formulated
 1994 : Creation of PPIB & preparation of National Power Plan by WAPDA

 1997: Autonomous regulatory body NEPRA created, through an Act.

 2001: WAPDA Vision 2025 prepared

 2002: NEPRA issued a future plan for Pakistan Power Sector

 2005 : Medium Term Development Framework (MTDF) prepared
Graduate School of Engineering Sciences and Information Technology (GSESIT)
Hamdard University Karachi

OVERVIEW OF PAKISTAN’S POWER SECTOR

 At present the following entities are responsible for delivery of power to the end consumers:
 One Transmission and Dispatch Company (NTDCL)
 Ten Distribution Companies (DISCOs)
 Four Public Sector Generation Companies (GENCOs)
 Thirty One (31) IPPs
 The Electricity Generation is blend of Hydel and Thermal Units.

 Total installed capacity is around 25,000 MW with 53% and 47% Share of Public and Private
Sector respectively.

 Currently Country is facing deficit of around 6,000 MW in peak summer months whereas the
power demand has been growing by 6-7% per annum resulting into load shedding of 8-16
hours.

 Expansion in Transmission Network is required to evacuate power from upcoming projects.

 Due to Financial Constraints in the Public Sector, the GOP is focusing on private sector to
invest in PPS to bridge the electricity demand supply gap.
Graduate School of Engineering Sciences and Information Technology (GSESIT)
Hamdard University Karachi

Pakistan Electricity Sector Structure

W
A • LESCO
• GEPCO
P Hydel
• FESCO
D D • IESCO
A I • MEPCO
S • PESCO
G C • HESCO
E GENCO-I • QESCO
NTDC O
GENCO-II • TESCO
N
GENCO-III • SEPCO
C GENCO-IV
O

IPPs KESC

Graduate School of Engineering Sciences and Information Technology (GSESIT)

 PAKISTAN POWER SECTOR – KEY PLAYERS

GOVERNMENT OF PAKISTAN

Ministry of Pakistan
Gilgit
Atomic Provinces AJK
Water Energy
NEPRA Baltistan

& Power Commission

Khyber
WAPDA AEDB PEPCO PPIB CHASNUPP KANUPP Pukhtoon Punjab Sindh Balochistan
Khwa

Private
Sector
Water
Mega Dams GENCOs DISCOs NTDC
Projects

IPPs/ SIPPs
IPPs
(Small Hydel, Wind,
(Hydel, Oil, CPPs KESC
Solar, Bio Diesel, Bio
Gas, Coal)
Mass, Cogeneration)
17
Hamdard University Karachi

Existing Structure of Energy Sector

Graduate School of Engineering Sciences and Information Technology (GSESIT)

Hamdard University Karachi

ROOTS OF PAKISTAN’S ENERGY CRISIS

Pakistan today is caught up in an acute Energy Crisis which has its roots in five (5)
distinct causes, namely;

i. Lack of Integrated Energy Planning & Demand Forecasting and absence of

central & focused entity responsible for the Energy Sector

ii. Imbalanced Energy Mix with heavy reliance on gas (47.5%) and Oil (30.5%)
(72% imported)

iii. Non-utilization of vast indigenous resources of Thar Coal and Hydel

potential

iv. Lack of effective project structuring, planning and implementation of

identified and viable projects

v. Inadequate Primary Energy Sources or access to, or local availability /

development.
Graduate School of Engineering Sciences and Information Technology (GSESIT)
Hamdard University Karachi

ROOTS OF PAKISTAN’S ENERGY CRISIS

As a consequence the energy shortages have snowballed with major supply chain and
infrastructure gaps, namely;

i. The Electric Power Sector; has been in static non-growth mode from 2003-
2008, and the peak supply-demand gap has grown to about 3,500 - 4,000 MW
from about 1,000 MW in 2006.
ii. In the Gas Sector; the demand - supply gap that emerged in 2007 has grown
to about 800 MMcfd in 2009 due to stalled import projects (Mashal, IPI, PGP)
and local fields not developed / put in production for 5 years ( 500 MMcfd)
iii. Inadequate Energy Infrastructure; supply to end customers both for electric
power as well as fuel oil for Power Plants  has been constrained
iv. Short Supply of Gas/Oil to Power Plants; the crisis has been aggravated due
to gas supply shortfall and reduced oil supply due to non-payment to OMCs

Graduate School of Engineering Sciences and Information Technology (GSESIT)

Hamdard University Karachi

PAKISTAN’S PRIMARY ENERGY MIX

 Pakistan’s Primary Energy Mix is essentially imbalanced even on a worldwide

comparative basis, with dependence on gas at 47.5%, oil at 30.5% (72%
imported)
 The 2005 Energy Plan, projected a continuing dependence of about 48% on
Natural Gas in the 2030 scenario, based on mega imports thru Transnational
Pipelines (6.5 bcfd) and LNG (1.5 bcfd)
 With the continuing delay in the planned TNPs and LNG import projects (Mashal,
PGP, Engro etc) the primary energy gap is increasing at an alarming rate
 By 2015 the natural gas supply-demand gap after LNG imports of 1.0 bcfd (if
implemented) will increase to 1.7 bcfd, and is unlikely to be covered as IPI cannot
be completed in this time frame
 There is clearly an essential need to plan a revised Primary Energy Mix along
with a revised electricity generation plan by source in the 2010 – 2030 scenario.

Graduate School of Engineering Sciences and Information Technology (GSESIT)

Hamdard University Karachi

PAKISTAN’S POWER GENERATION BY SOURCE

 With rising cost of crude oil from $ 60 in 2005 to $ 147 in 2008, Pakistan’s oil
based thermal generation (32%) became unsustainable and has resulted in a
massive Energy Sector debt ( $ 3.6 billion)
 Coal utilization is about 9% in the Energy Mix, and only 0.1% for Power
Generation vs. 72% in China, 56% in India and more than 50% in the USA.
 New power generation has remained static for about 7 years
 A more rational and Sustainable Energy Mix must be planned for the 2015-
2030 scenario.
 Significant increase in hydel power generation and optimum use of coal thru
gasification and clean coal technologies
 As a strategic priority Nuclear Electric Energy has to be increased to about 5%
and Renewable to about 3% in the 2030 scenario.

Graduate School of Engineering Sciences and Information Technology (GSESIT)

Hamdard University Karachi

Pakistan’s Thar Coal Potential / THAR COAL UTILIZATION

 Worlds Single largest contiguous Coal field extending over 10,000 Sq KMs.
 Reserves of 175 – 200 billions tons exceed oil equivalent reserves of Saudi
Arabia, Iraq, Iran, with a value of several trillion US$.
 Phased development can lead to 400 – 600 mt /year coal mining in 20 years
 All of Pakistan’s energy requirements (Electric, Power, Gas, Diesel) can be met
in 2020 – 2030 scenario
 AEDB report states that “Thar lignite once mined, is a useable fuel or carbon
resource” and “Coal to liquids-CTL is considered a serious utilization option”
 In addition to Electric Power, SNG, Chemicals, Fertilizer, etc can be produced
for self consumption and surplus can be exported
 Contribution to GDP in plants, products, services, employment, etc, would be
in the range of $200b-$300b which exceeds Pakistan’s current GDP of $ 170 b
 Thar Coal is God’s Gift of “Black Gold” to the People of Pakistan and will
ensure the Nation’s Energy & Economic Future

Graduate School of Engineering Sciences and Information Technology (GSESIT)

Hamdard University Karachi

Co-Production Plants based on Thar Coal Gasification

 Coal production costs have to be in the range of $20 - $25 /tons, which equates to a
crude oil cost of about $50 per barrel in order to achieve economical levels
 To achieve cost benchmark mine capacity of 50 mtons/year is required in three phases
of (1) 15 mtons/yr (2) 30 mtons/yr and (3) 50 mtons/yr
 Following co-production plants will need to be set-up in the three phases to match
with coal production over 3-5 years;
• Phase 1) IGCC 500 mw (3 mtons/yr) and SNG 250 mmcfd (12 mtons/yr). Total 15 mt/yr
• Phase 2) IGCC 500 mw (3 mtons/yr) and FTD 30,000 barrels/day (12 mtons/yr). Total 30 mt/yr
• Phase 3) SNG 250 mmcfd (12 mtons/yr) and FTD 20,000 barrels/day (8 mtons/yr). Total 50 mt/yr
 In subsequent phases, chemical and fertilizer plants would be set-up as part of a Mega
Petro-Chemical Complex which would be supported by additional coal mining
 Power transmission line of 500 KV will be planned and constructed for 1000 mw
power dispersal to NTDC Network
 A 36”-42” Hi-Pressure Gas Transmission Pipeline will be planned and constructed to
connect to the SSGC Network at Hyderabad / Jamshoro
Graduate School of Engineering Sciences and Information Technology (GSESIT)
Hamdard University Karachi

HYDEL POWER GENERATION

 The country has an estimated Hydro Resources Potential of about 45,000 MW,
currently whereas only 6,500 MW have been installed with 11% share in the
Energy Mix.
 It is proposed in the long term scenario to increase share of Hydro in Primary
Energy from 6,500 MW (11%) at present to about 32,100 MW (20%) by 2030
(30% share in Power Generation)
 This will entail set up of 8,000 MW small/medium hydro units on
rivers/canals, run of the river plants and four large hydro multipurpose
reservoirs/dams with capacity of about 17,600 MW upto 2030
 The four large Hydro Dams are, (i) Kalabagh – 3,800 MW, (ii) Bhasha – 4,600
MW, (iii) Bunji – 5,400 MW, (iv) Dasu – 3,800 MW
 It is necessary to maintain an optimal Hydro/Thermal Mix, in base load
operations to cater for reduction in output during low hydel periods.

Graduate School of Engineering Sciences and Information Technology (GSESIT)

Hamdard University Karachi

SET-UP OF NATIONAL ENERGY AUTHORITY - NEA

 An essential step towards preparation and implementation of a National Energy Plan is
the set-up of a statutory body, “The National Energy Authority (NEA)”
 The NEA would be an independent and focal entity with a Chairman and 12 Board
members, (6 private sector professionals and 6 energy sector experts, MDs etc from
the Public Sector/GOP)
 The NEA would be responsible for, and have the authority to undertake strategic
planning in the Energy Sector and prepare a comprehensive ENERGY POLICY.
 The NEA would prepare an integrated and Comprehensive National Energy Plan (NEP)
for the Short, Medium and Long Term based on robust projections on a scientific basis.
 The NEA would also identify, plan and pursue implementation of Energy Sector
Infrastructure augmentation/expansion by the OMCs, PEPCO, SSGC, SNGPL etc.
 The NEA would coordinate with the sectoral organizations, public companies OMCs,
E&P Companies, IPPs etc and relevant Ministries etc for the NEP implementation
 The NEA will also act as a monitoring authority for all Energy Sector projects, and
ensure compliance to project road-maps and milestones
Graduate School of Engineering Sciences and Information Technology (GSESIT)
Hamdard University Karachi

For more information

U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov

Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo

International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo

Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer

Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy

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