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Advantage:
dynamic.
Definition: A static simulation model is a
deterministic or stochastic.
Physical Mathematical
Analytical Numerical
Numerical
System simulation
Distributed Lag Models
Models that have the properties of changing only at fixed
interval of time, and of basing current values of the
variables on other current values and values that
occurred in the previous intervals, are called distributed
lag models
D = a – bP
S = c + dP-1 1.5
D=S
Monte Carlo simulation
Simulation can also be defined as a technique of
27 13 80 10 54 60 49
The first RN, 27 , falls into second class of the distribution and
corresponds to a demand of 11 tons/day.
Random number 27 13 80 10 54 60 49
Simulated demand 11 11 13 11 12 12 12
Difference between Monte Carlo
method and simulation
In the Monte Carlo method, time does not play as substantial
role, as it does in stochastic simulation.
2. The observations in the Monte Carlo method, as a rule, are
independent. In simulation, however, we experiment with the
model over time so, as a rule, the observations are serially
correlated.
3. In the Monte Carlo method, it is possible to express the
response as a rather simple function of the stochastic input
variants. In simulation the response is usually a very
complicated one and can be expressed explicitly only by the
computer program itself.
Questions
1. What is the difference between static and dynamic models?
2. Give an example of a dynamic mathematical model.
3. (a) What are distributed lagged models?
(b) If demand and supply of a product obey following
equations. D = a + bP, S = c – dP and D = S
Here a, b, c, and d are given numbers, convert this model to
distributed lagged model.
4. Generator service co. (GSCO) has ongoing contracts
with several electric utilities wherein GSCO agrees to
provide technicians whenever a customer has a
generator shutdown and needs technical assistance.
Problem No. 1: The GSCO operations manager is concerned
with maintain enough technicians to give the needed
service while staying within a limited budget for
personnel. He has collected data on the number of
service request per day over a 200-day period as shown
in Table. (a) Simulate the service requests per day for a
week period by using random numbers applied to a
cumulative distribution. (b) compare the simulated
values with the historical average.
Number of 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
request
Frequency 30 40 60 44 20 6 0
2. Empirical data collected on time required to weld a
transformer bracket were recorded to the nearest quarter
minute, as shown in Table 1
Year G
1 20
2 25
3 30
4 35
5 40
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