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Colliers QuarterlyReport Q42020 Retail
Colliers QuarterlyReport Q42020 Retail
HO CHI MINH
Quarter 4 | Vietnam
Research & Forecast Report | Coliers International
Royal built in District 3 which adds a total of 7,712 sqm to the retail Figure 2: HCMC Retail, Supply by Year
market. Overall, the market welcomed 50,000 sqm from 7 new
2,000,000
projects in 2020, of which projects in the outskirts accounted for over
1,500,000
80% of the area. After undergoing renovation for months, Parkson
1,000,000
sqm
(Malaysia) took a large amount of space into operation, over 1,700
500,000
sqm at Parkson Saigontourist in District 1. Besides Uniqlo, another
0
Japanese brand, MUJI, also opened its household goods store in this
mall and is expected to raise the GFA to 2,000 sqm in this quarter.
Demand: Overall occupancy still high despite ongoing
Retail
pandemic Podiu
Demand for retail space for goods and services were stable despite m
the fall in the number of international arrivals. Many international Source:ColliersInternational
Depart
brands including Uniqlo, Giordano, ACE, H&M and Watson continued ment
Table 1: HCMC
Stores Retail, Upcoming Projects
increasing outlets in Vietnam in 2020, which shows overall foreign
retailors’ confidence in the Vietnam retail market despite the Covid- Shopping Exp ec ted
NameCenters
of Project District NLA
Comple tio
19 pandemic and this bodes well for the next few years for the (sqm)
n Year
Vietnam retail market. Socar Mall Thu Duc 40,000 1Q2021
City
Outlook: Expectation of recovery Central Mall East Thu Duc 39,000 1Q2021
Saigon City
HCMC retail market will welcome Socar Shopping Mall in Thu Duc City
Sense City Thu Duc 50,000 1Q2021
in the first quarter of 2021. In the later period, a variety of new supply East City
Saigon
will provide a large retail space of 430,000 sqm, mostly located in the
Elite Mall District 42,000 1Q2021
outskirts such as Vincom Megamall Grand Park (Thu Duc City) and 8
Elite Mall (District 8). It is predicted that in the last quarter of 2020 Vincom Thu Duc 45,000 4Q2021
and the first quarter of 2021, with the potential of a positive economic Megamall City
Grand Park Source:ColliersInternational
condition, increasing domestic consumption, and influences from FTA
and EVFTA, Vietnam retail market will be expected to improve.
Furthermore, UKVFTA will officially start on 1st January 2021, which
raises the capability of British brands investing in Vietnam retail
market. Besides, RCEP expresses the cooperation among ASEAN
countries and 5 other big economies including China, Japan, South
Korea, Australia, and New Zealand and hopefully this will provide an
influx of international tenants soon.
9
Performance: Market stability on the horizon Figure 3: Hanoi Retail, Average Asking Rent
Research & Forecast Report | Coliers International
USD/sqm/month
introduction of 50.00
communal political and social activies in Hanoi and 40.00
footfall in public
areas. After a challenging year, consumer confidence is 30.00
recovering
In particular, the average retail asking rent was 60 USD/sqm/month 20.00
and retail
which occupiers
represents and developers
an increase are seeing a vast
of 10 USD/sqm/month q-o-q. Market 10.00
improvement
occupancy rateinremained stable, with a marginal increase from 93% -
market
in 2019 conditions.
to 94% with increased average asking rents from USD 49.4 to
USD 60.49. Rental rate and occupancy rate in 2021 are expected to
keep the same or even improve, mainly due to the economic recovery
Source:ColliersInternational
Supply: New supply in non-CBD locations Figure 4: Hanoi Retail, Occupancy rate
The most recent completed project was Vincom
Mega Mall Ocean 100%
Park that officially opened in Gia Lam District in 80%
December 2020. This
60%
new shopping mall added 56,000 sqm of retail
space to the market. 40%
Not
Thereonly
are 20is new
thisprojects
the largest shopping
delivering 302,000mall
sqm of retail spaced 20%
developed by Vingroup, it
into the Hanoi market in 2021, within non-CBD areas. Key planned
0%
is also one
projects of thethe
include largest commercial
Vincom projects
Mega Mall Smart in Vietnam.
City, Lotte Ciputra Mall,
and Aeon Mall Hoang Mai Giap Bat, and this increased supply in the
outskirts may reduce the asking rent in the whole market.
Source:ColliersInternational
Demand: A recent increase recorded
Table 3: Hanoi Retail, Upcoming Projects
International retailers had the tendency to
focus on quality standards Expec ted
Name of NLA
and products within the market. The District Comple te
Project (sqm)
potential of the Vietnam market d ye ar
with nearly 100 million people and an Vinc om
Nam Tu
emerging and growing middle Me gamall 68,000 1Q2021
Smart Liem
class is boosting consumer spending power LotteCity
Ciputra
and keeping new entry Tay Ho 200,000 1Q2021
Mall
retailers interested despite the challenges of Source:ColliersInternational
2020.
Outlook: Benefited from international
agreements
Since FDI inflows in Vietnam is directly proportional to the demand
for retail market from oversea companies, many foreign developers
will make use of this trend and be dominant in developing complex
buildings with international standards, which will attract several
worldwide retail tenants. Many Foreign Trade Agreements that will
start or continue in 2021 will push demand for the retail market. In
particular, continuous activities of EVFTA will boost the trade
between Vietnam and EU Union, whereas UKVFTA will in charge of
Developers, however, expect that rents in Hanoi will gradually catch
enhancing Vietnam’s relationship with Great Britain, and RCEP is the
up with that in HCMC and that demand for office space in Hanoi will
link among Vietnam together with ASEAN and the other 5 big
continue increasing.
economies in the world. All of these will give Vietnam a hand to
attract more retailers from overseas.
9
DA NANG
Performance: Slight recovery after suffering the
Quarter 4 | Vietnam
second wave
Being the city that was worst affected by the second wave of the Average Rent Occupancy Rate
Covid-19 pandemic, Da Nang had to face a lot of difficulties, and
the retail market was not an exception. 60
120%
USD/sqm/month
Due to the severe impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, several stores 50
had to temporarily shut down. To promote demand for retail space, 100%
40 80%
some landlords cut up to 20 percent of the rental price for tenants. 30 60%
Nevertheless, the retail market saw a gradual improvement in 20 40%
10 20%
occupancy rate and an increase in average asking rent as it 0 0%
progressed in 2020.
Supply: No new supply
There was no new supply in
Source:ColliersInternational
this quarter because many
developers Figure 6: Da Nang Retail, Market Performance Trend
were still cautious and did
not know how long the
Average Rent Occupancy Rate
second wave
would take. In terms of the 35 99%
distribution among districts, 30 98%
32% of the
USD/sqm/month
As many stores shut down during the pandemic, the occupancy 25 97%
totalofretail
rate 95%area is fourth
in the locatedquarter
in was recorded to decrease by 3%
20
Son Tra, 31%
compared at Hai
to 2019. Chau after successfully controlling the
However, 96%
District,
pandemic, 31% the retail market in Da Nang had signs of recovery 15
95%
at Ngu
again. Hanh SontheDistrict
Particularly, average asking rent increased from the 10
and Thanh Khe District 5 94%
previous quarter to about 30 USD/sqm/month.
accounted for 6%. 0 93%
Outlook:
Demand:Boosting
A slightup decrease
retail market
in by
thethenumber
recoveryofof 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F
tourism
tenants Source:ColliersInternational
The retail market in Da Nang will continue rising when the city Figure 7: Da Nang Retail, District Distribution
eventually welcomes more international tourists again, following
the trend since September 2020 when may retail outlets resumed Hai Chau Son Tra
sales due to increase in shopping demand from customers. It is Thanh Khe Ngu Hanh Sơn
expected that construction of several projects will resume and
supply at least 20,000 sqm of retail space to the market by end
2021. International Trade Agreements including EVFTA, UKVFTA,
and RCEP will be expected to boost the demand for the retail 31%
31%
market and contribute to the recovery in 2021.
32%
Source:ColliersInternational
11
ARR
Completion NLA (USD/ Occupancy
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