GROUP 1

PROBLEM NO. 3
PROBLEM:
IN RELATION WITH THE CURRENT PANDEMIC, LET US TAKE A GLIMPSE FROM THE PAST PANDEMIC, "EBOLA".
 
A TOWN IN CENTRAL AFRICA WITH AN INITIAL POPULATION OF 10, 000 PEOPLE AND 20 OF THEM TESTED POSITIVE IN EBOLA. GIVEN THAT THE RATE AT WHICH PEOPLE GET INFECTED IS .05% AND
CONSTANT OF PROPORTIONALITY OR CHANCE OF BEING REMOVED IS 12%. THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION IS TRYING TO DETERMINE AND PREPARE AN SIR MODEL.
 
A. PREPARE A TABLE TO SHOW THE CHANGES IN SUSCEPTIBLE, INFECTED, AND REMOVED FOR THE 4 CONSECUTIVE WEEKS.
B. DETERMINE THE BASIC REPRODUCTIVE RATIO AND HERD IMMUNITY THRESHOLD.
C. DETERMINE IF THE PANDEMIC WILL SHRINK OR SPREAD.

• LET US FIRST GET THE GIVEN FROM THE PROBLEM.

N = 10 000 A = .0005

S = 9980 B = .12

I = 20

LET US ASSUME THAT THE VALUE OF RECOVERED PEOPLE INITIALLY IS R = 0.

 TERMINOLOGIES
• SUSCEPTIBLE

- PERSONS WHO ARE LIKELY TO BE INFECTED.

• INFECTED

- INFECTED PERSONS.

• REMOVED

- REMOVED FROM INFECTED, EITHER DIED OR RECOVERED.

• A OR ALPHA

- RATE AT WHICH PEOPLE GET INFECTED.

• B OR BETA

- RATE AT WHICH INFECTED GET REMOVED.

• BASIC REPRODUCTIVE RATIO

- AVERAGE NUMBER OF PEOPLE AN INFECTED CAN INFECT.

• HERD IMMUNITY THRESHOLD

- PERCENTAGE OF PEOPLE THAT MUST BE VACCINATED.

 n = 10 000 a = .0005
FORMULAS FOR SIR MODEL ARE: S = 9980 b = .12
I = 20
R=0

A. PREPARE A TABLE TO SHOW THE CHANGES IN SUSCEPTIBLE, INFECTED, AND REMOVED FOR THE 4
CONSECUTIVE WEEKS.
Z weeks Sn In Rn
Sn + In + Rn = n
Z0 9980 20 0

Z1 9880 117 3

“Math isn’t learnable in a day of

Z2 9302 681 17
listening, but in an hour of practice”
Z3 6135 3767 98

Z4 -5420 14870 550

B. DETERMINE THE BASIC REPRODUCTIVE RATIO AND HERD IMMUNITY THRESHOLD.

dI/dt = I (aS-B) dI/dt = (aSI – BI)/ aSI

(aS-B) dI/dt = 1 – B/aS

aS-B = 0
H = 1 – (1/K0)
[aS = B](K0)(1/B)

K0 = aS/B H = 1 – (1/41.58)

K0 = .0005(9980)/ .12 H = .9760 or 97.60%

K0 = 41.58 or 41
C. DETERMINE IF THE PANDEMIC WILL SHRINK OR SPREAD.

IF K0 > 1, THE EPIDEMIC WILL SPREAD

41 > 1, THE EPIDEMIC WILL SPREAD

IF S0 > B/A, THE EPIDEMIC WILL SPREAD

9980 > .12/.0005 OR 240, THE EPIDEMIC WILL SPREAD

THANK YOUUU 😘