Probability II

Conditional probability,Bayes
theorem,Decision trees.

Submitted by- Bhuvneshwari Rathore

SAP ID- 81012019491
Probability
Probability is a numerical measure of the likelihood that an event will occur.The probability of an
outcome e in a sample space S is a number P between 1 and 0 that measures the likelihood that e
will occur on a single trial of the corresponding random experiment. Ther value P=0 corresponds to
the outcome e being impossible and the value P=1 corresponds to the outcome e being certain.
Probability values are always assigned on a scale from 0 to 1. A probability near 0 indicates an
event is very unlikely to occur A probability near 1 indicates an event is almost certain to occur. The
theoretical probability of a given event is the fraction or percentage of times that the event should
occur. Eg- The probability of flipping a coin and having it land on heads in ½ or 50%.
Probability
Example: Find the probability of getting a number less than 5 when a dice is rolled by using the probability formula.

Solution: To find:

Probability of getting a number less than 5

Given: Sample space = {1,2,3,4,5,6}

Getting a number less than 5 = {1,2,3,4}

Therefore, n(S) = 6

n(A) = 4

Using Probability Formula,

P(A) = (n(A))/(n(s))

p(A) = 4/6

m = 2/3
Probability in a legal context
The concept of probability can be applied to both the ultimate and intermediate problems. In criminal cases,
the fact-finder must believe beyond reasonable doubt and be sure that the event occurred. In contrast, the
fact-finder in civil cases relies on the concept of balance of probabilities. One common understanding is that
the fact-finder must form a judgement, based on the strength of the evidence, as to whether their belief for
the plaintiff’s contention is greater than or less than 50%. The notion of probability may also be invoked in
court when expert evidence is being adduced. As an example, suppose the court is being presented with
evidence of a particular bloodstain pattern in a case of assault. The expert testifies that it is ‛highly probable’
the bloodstain pattern would be observed on the defendant’s shoes if the defendant had, as alleged, kicked
the victim. The notion here is of ‛observations’ and expert expectations of observing material/analytical
results, etc if a proposition were true rather than to discuss the ‘cause’ of the bloodstain pattern. Discussion of
‘cause’ requires the generation of explanations after the observations have been made.
 Probability in a legal context
To avoid possible confusion, the expert should explain to the court that ‛highly probable’ is a
description of their expectation that this particular pattern of blood staining on the defendant’s
shoes would have been observed if the defendant had, as alleged, kicked the victim. But, for
balance, it is necessary also to ask: What is the probability that this pattern of blood staining
would have been observed if the defendant had not kicked the victim? The answer to this
second question may be, for example, ‛very low. These assignments are the expert's probability
judgements made after taking into account the results of any experimentation aligned to the
case circumstances, the body of documented knowledge and data in the specialism, as well as
their own experience in the field. There are no such things as the ‛right’ or ‛correct’ probabilities
in this case.
Conditional probability
Conditional probability is defined as the probability that an event will occur, given that
another event has occurred.The probability that event A will occur given that or on the
condition that, event B has already occurred It is denoted and read as: P(A/B) means the
probability that event A will occur, given that event B has occurred. It is expressed as:

Where P(B n A) is the probability of the intersection of events A and B. P (B) is the probability of
event B.
Conditional Probability
Example- The table below shows the occurrence of diabetes in 100 people. Let D and N be the events where a randomly
selected person "has diabetes" and "not overweight". Then find P(D | N).

Diabetes (D) No diabetes (D’)

Not overweight 5 45
(N)

Overweight (N’) 17 33

Solution:
From the given table, P(N) = (5+45) / 100 = 50/100.
P(D ∩ N) = 5/100.
By the conditional probability formula,
P(D | N) = P(D ∩ N) / P(N)
= (5/100) / (50/100)
= 5/50
= 1/10
Bayes Theorem

Bayes theorem is used to revise previously calculated

probabilities after new information is obtained. We use
Bayes theorem to find the probability of the possible given
that an event has occurred. This theorem describes the
probability of an occurrence of an event related to any
condition. It is also considered for the case of conditional
probability. Bayes theorem is also known as the formula for
the probability of causes.
Bayes Theorem
Example-Amy has two bags. Bag I has 7 red and 2 blue balls and bag II has 5 red and 9 blue balls. Amy
draws a ball at random and it turns out to be red. Determine the probability that the ball was from the bag I
using the Bayes theorem.

Let X and Y be the events that the ball is from the bag I and bag II, respectively. Assume A to be the event
of drawing a red ball. We know that the probability of choosing a bag for drawing a ball is 1/2, that is,

P(X) = P(Y) = ½

Since there are 7 red balls out of a total of 11 balls in the bag I, therefore, P(drawing a red ball from the bag
I) = P(A|X) = 7/11
Similarly, P(drawing a red ball from bag II) = P(A|Y) = 5/14
We need to determine the value of P(the ball drawn is from the bag I given that it is a red ball), that is, P(X|
A). To determine this we will use Bayes Theorem. Using Bayes theorem, we have the following
P(X|A) = P(A|X) P(X)
Bayes theorem and law
Example- In a criminal trial, it must be proven that a defendant is guilty beyond a reasonable doubt.

In a case let us assume-

1. The defendant is convicted that they are 90% guilty

2. The probability that the defendant is acquitted, given innocence is 70%
3. Let us assume that 85% of all defenders are indeed guilty.

Let us find that if a particular defendant is convicted of crime,the probability of that defendant being
innocent using Bayes’ theorem.

Solution- By using Bayes’ theorem

P= (innocent/convicted)= P(convicted n innocent)

P(convicted n innocent) + P( convicted n guilty)

Bayes theorem and law
= (0.30) (0.15) = 0.0555

(0.30) (0.15) + (0.85) (0.90)

0.30 Convicted

0.15 Innocent 0.70

1 Acquitted

0.85 Guilty 0.90 Convicted

0.10 Acquitted

This shows that the likelihood that the defendant is found innocent is 5.55%
Bayes theorem and law

Bayes’ Theorem is a method of probability that determines the probability of an outcome and could
therefore be used in many court cases to evaluate the validity of the case evidence, witness reports,
or even to draw conclusions not based on given evidence.These probabilities are, however,
subjective based on the original information used. Although Bayes’ can be used to determine the
probability that an event occurred, this probability will not provide the evidence to say that the event
100% did or did not occur; it can only provide the odds that the event occurred, which must then be
interpreted to be in favor of one of the outcomes. Therefore, when looking at the determined
probabilities, how can it be said what is a “good enough” probability that an event happened to
convict a person on trial? There might be a 15 to 1 chance that the defendant was at the same place
as where the murder occurred, but is this a good enough probability to charge the defendant with
murder? Incorrectly calculated probabilities have been used in the past to wrongly commit innocent
people.
Decision Trees
A probability tree diagram is a diagram that is used to give a visual representation of the probabilities as well as the outcomes of an event. A
probability tree diagram consists of two parts - nodes and branches. A node is used to represent an event. A branch is used to denote the connection
between an event and its outcome.
A probability tree diagram can be used to depict conditional probabilities as well as independent events. There are two main parts of a probability tree.
These are the nodes and the branches. The nodes can further be classified into a parent node and a sibling node. The parent node represents a
certain event and has a probability of 1. The sibling nodes denote other additional possible events or outcomes. The branches denote the probability of
occurrence of these events. Suppose a fair coin is tossed once, then the probability tree can be constructed as follows:

This is a simple probability tree and has two branches only. Here, the first node represents the parent event of a coin being tossed. Head and tail are
the two possible outcomes forming the sibling nodes. 0.5 is written on the branch and represents the probability of occurrence of each sibling event.
Decision Trees
Example- Suppose a bag contains a total of 5 balls out of which 2 are blue and 3 are orange. Using a probability
tree diagram, find the conditional probability of drawing a blue ball given the first ball that was drawn was orange.
The balls are drawn without replacement.

Solution: The probability tree can be constructed as follows:

1/4

3/4

2/4

2/4
Decision Trees

The chance of picking out an orange ball on the first draw is 3 / 5.

Now the total number of balls remaining in the bag after the first draw is 4.

The probability of picking a blue ball on the second draw is 2 / 4

From the probability tree diagram, the probability of picking a blue ball given that an orange
ball has been drawn is

= (3 / 5) × (2 / 4) = 3 / 10

Answer: The conditional probability is 3 / 10

 A disciplined approach to dispute analysis
Decision tree probability analysis is a method to strategically organize and link multiple litigation issues in order to identify
the range of potential outcomes and associated probabilities.If done right, decision tree analysis can be successfully applied
to a variety of dispute related purposes, including:

● Evaluation of settlement positions

● Strategy development
● Briefing senior management
● Negotiations
● Mediation

Think about the decision tree as a road map that shows when the specific issues are likely to be addressed in the litigation process and
how those issues interact. We began with the fair use defense because it is an issue that may be resolved by dispositive motion earlier in
the process. If the motion is successful, that’s the end of the case. Next, the expert issue is likely to be decided either just before or early
in the trial. That leaves the ultimate liability issue for the end. Damage calculations are divided into three probability groups representing
the statutory minimum and maximum with the offered settlement amount in the middle.