BC0406 – Introduction to

Probability and Statistics

Lecture 9
Probability
Discrete distributions

Dr. Richard H.A.H. Jacobs

Universidade Federal do ABC
 Agenda
Today’s lecture

• Announcements

• Quick review of the last lecture

• Distribution of probabilities
• Expected value, mean, variance, std. deviation

• Binomial distribution
• Definition
• Mean, standard deviation

• Geometric distribution

• Poisson distribution

• Chapters for today and next lecture

• Larson & Farber: Chapter 4
Announcements
 Discrete probability distributions

• Probability distribution

• At each value of a discrete random variable, a probability can be

assigned

• A discrete probability distribution lists each value you can take,

alongside its probability

• Two conditions: x P(x) x P(x) x P(x)

5 0,23 0 0,28 0 0,5
6 0,19 1 0,21 10 0,25
7 0,43 2 0,43 15 1,25
8 0,15 3 0,15 20 -1
 Discrete probability distributions
• Example: Toss a coin 2 times. We define random variable X:
The number of Heads obtained in the two tosses. Construct the
probability distribution of this experiment.

Solution:
• P(0) = P(X=0) = P(TT) = 0,25,
• P(1) = P(X=1) = P(HT or TH) = 0,25 + 0,25 = 0,50,
• P(2) = P(X=2) = P(HH) = 0,25

x P(x)
0 0,25
1 0,50
2 0,25
 Discrete probability distributions
• Mean (and expected value) of a discrete random variable

• Each value of x must be multiplied by its corresponding prob.

• Products must be added together
• This represents the theoretical average of the probabilistic
experiment

• Example: We toss a coin 2 times. We define random variable X: the

number of Heads obtained in the two tosses.

x P(x) xP(x)
0 0,25 0*(0,25) = 0
1 0,50 1*(0,50) = 0,50
2 0,25 2*(0,25) = 0,50
 Discrete probability distributions
• Variance and standard deviation of a discrete random variable

• Example: We flip a coin 2 times. We define random variable X:

number of Heads obtained in the two tosses.

𝝁=𝟏

0 0,25 -1 1 0,25
1 0,50 0 0 0
2 0,25 1 1 0,25
 Binomial distribution
• Probabilistic experiments with two possible outcomes:
• Success
• Failure
• We have seen relatively simple problems so far
• The probability of two Heads in 2 coin tosses
• Let’s cover more complex problems
• What is the probability of getting 70 or more “Heads”
in 100 coin tosses?

• Binomials
• Give us an efficient method for solving problems
involving binary events
• Deepen our understanding of why many results are
normally distributed
• Provide us the basis for understanding sample
distributions of various statistics based on random
samples
• Give us the foundation for using the approximation
method for normal distributions
 Binomial distribution
• Binomial experiments
• Situation in which there are only two possibilities
• Success, with probability p
• Failure, com probability q
• These results are mutually exclusive
• p = 1 – q; p + q = 1
• p and q are constant between attempts
• Ex: Two coin tosses

• Binomial distribution
• The distribution representing the probability of each
possible value of the number of successes
• Random variable x counts the number of
successful attempts
 Binomial distribution

• In two coin tosses, what is the probability of

getting 0, 1 or 2 Heads?
• N = 2; p = 0,5; x = # Heads

• Result x p(x)
• HH 2 1/4 or 0,25
• HT TH 1 2/4 or 0,50
• TT 0 1/4 or 0,25
 Binomial distribution

• In 4 tosses, what is the probability of getting each number

of Heads?
• N = 4; p = 0,5; x = # Heads

• Result x p(x)
• HHHH 4 1/16 or ,0625
• HHHT HHTH HTHH THHH 3 4/16 or ,2500
• HHTT HTTH HTHT THTH THHT TTHH 2 6/16 or ,3750
• TTTH TTHT THTT HTTT 1 4/16 or ,2500
• TTTT 0 1/16 or ,0625
 Binomial distribution

Binomial distributions are generally

illustrated with graphs, as follows
For N = 4; p = 0,5; and x = # heads

0.4 0.375
x p(x)
What is the center? 4 1/16 or ,0625
Probabilidade

0.25 0.25
3 4/16 or ,2500
0.2
What is the dispersion?
2 6/16 or ,3750
0.0625 0.0625 1 4/16 or ,2500
What is the shape?
0 0 1/16 or ,0625
0 1 2 3 4

x (# heads)
 Binomial distribution

• To count the number of successes:

• mbinomial: mean of the binomial experiment
– Ex: in 2 coin tosses:
– Results are:TT TH HT HH
– x (# heads): 0 1 1 2
– Mean x = Sx/N = (0 + 1 + 1 + 2)/4 = 4/4 = 1,0

• sbinomial: standard deviation of the binomial experiment

– Results are:TT TH HT HH
– x (# heads): 0 1 1 2
– deviation -1 0 0 1
– sum of squares = 2
– Standard deviation= (SQ/N) = (2/4) = 0,5 = 0,71
 Binomial distribution
• The mean and standard deviation of the binomial experiment can
be simplified as follows:
• mbinomial = N * p
0.4 0.375

Probabilidade
• sbinomial = Npq 0.25 0.25

0.2

0.0625 0.0625
– Ex: for N =2, p = 0,5
• mbinomial = 2 * 0,5 = 1,0 0
0 1 2 3 4
• sbinomial = (2*,5*,5) = 0,71
x (# heads)

– Ex: for N = 4, p = 0,5

mbinomial = N * p = 4 * 0,5 = 2

sbinomial =  Npq = ( 4*0,5*0,5)

=  4*0,25 = 1
 Binomial distribution
• The (Valient and Fearless) Piracicaba XV [?] wins 75% of its
matches. Get the average, variance, and standard deviation for
the number of wins in the 25 games of the 2018 World
Championship that they will play (and obviously win).

• mbinomial = N * p = 25 * 0,75 = 18,75

• s2binomial = Npq = 25 * 0,75 * 0,25 = 4,69

• sbinomial =  Npq = 2,165

 Binomial distribution
• Choose a card from an ordinary deck. Verify whether your suit is
spades or not and put it back in the stack. Repeat the experiment
5 times.

– Determine N, p, q

– N = 5; p = p(S) = 0,25; q = p(F) = 1 – p = 0,75

– Find m
binomial and sbinomial

- mbinomial = N * p = 5 * 0,25 = 1,25

- sbinomial = Npq = 5 * 0,25 * 0,75 = 0,97

- Describe the probabilities of each outcome

- It is just a joke... [?]
 Binomial distribution

• Listing all possible results becomes

laborious as N increases

• Binomial probability tables give us the

information we want
– N = # attempts
– p = probability of success
– x = # successes
0.4 0.375
• Ex: Find the probabilities for

Probabilidade
– N = 4; p = 0,5; x = 0,1,2,3,4 0.25 0.25

0.2

0.0625 0.0625

0
0 1 2 3 4

x (# heads)
Binomial distribution
 Binomial distribution
• Choose a card from an ordinary deck. Verify whether your suit is
spades or not and put it back in the deck. Repeat the experiment 5
times.

– Determine n, p, q

– n = 5; p = p(S) = 0,25; q = p(F) = 0,75

– Find m
binomial and sbinomial

- mbinomial = N * p = 5 * 0,25 = 1,25

- sbinomial = Npq = 5 * 0,25 * 0,75 = 0,97

- Describe the probabilities of each outcome

Binomial distribution
 Binomial distribution
• A die with six sides is thrown three times. Calculate the probability of
getting exactly one 6.

– There are several ways to solve this problem. We have already

learned at least one:
Attempt 3 x p
Attempt 2 S 3 1/216
S
Attempt 1 F 2 5/216
S S 2 5/216
F
F 1 25/216
S 2 5/216 0,347
S
F 1 25/216
F S 1 25/216
F
F 0 125/216
 Binomial distribution
• A die with six sides is thrown three times. Calculate the probability of
getting exactly one 6.

– There are several ways to solve this problem. We have already

learned at least one:

• Binomial probability formula

• That is: the formula allows us to calculate the probability of exactly x

successes occurring in n trials
 Binomial distribution
• Choose a card from an ordinary deck. Verify whether your suit is
sticks or not and put it back in the deck. Repeat the experiment 5
times. What is the probability that three ‘spades’ cards are drawn?

• Binomial probability formula

• Compare with table...

Binomial distribution
 Binomial distribution
• Choose a card from an ordinary deck. Verify whether the suit is
spade or not and put it back in the deck. Repeat the experiment 5
times. What is the probability that three spades cards are drawn?

• Binomial probability formula

• That is: the formula allows us to directly calculate the probability of

exactly x sucesses ocurring in N attempts
 Binomial distribution
• Choose a card from an ordinary deck. Verify whether the suit is
spades or not and put it back in the deck. Repeat the experiment 5
times. What is the probability of three or more ‘spades’ cards being
drawn?

• Using the table...

Binomial distribution
 Binomial distribution
• Choose a card from an ordinary deck. Verify whether its suit is
spades or not and put it back in the deck. Repeat the experiment 5
times. What is the probability of three or more ‘spades’ cards being
drawn?

• Using the table...

• Using the binomial probability formula

 Geometric distribution
• Another discrete distribution of probabilities

• Many actions in life are repeated until a success occurs

– Entrance exam [?Vestibular]
– The catcher in the ballad [??O pegador na balada, from the
picture below, I think it should be hitting on girls?]

Situations like these can be represented by a

geometric distribution
 Geometric distribution
• Discrete probability distribution of a random variable x satifying the
following conditions:
– An attempt is repeated until success occurs
– Repeated attempts are independent of each other
– The probability of success p is constant for each attempt
• , where q = 1 – p

• You already know that the probability of the Piracicaba XV winning

any game is 0,75. Get the probability that it wins its first game of the
championship in the third or fourth game.
– First, obtain the probability of the first win occurring in the third
match and then in the fourth match
 Geometric distribution
• From experience, you know that the probability of getting a sale on a
phone call is 23%. Get the probability that the first sale on a given
day occurs on the fourth or fifth phone call.
 Poisson distribution
• Yet another discrete probability distribution

• Distribution relative to the specific number of results within a given

unit of time or space
– Probability of rain for a week in the month of November
– Probability of encountering a shark in any cubic meter of Praia
Grande

Situations like these can be represented by a

Poisson distribution
 Poisson distribution
• Discrete probability distribution of a random variable x which satisfies
the following conditions:
– The experiment consists of counting the number of times, x, that
an event occurs in a given interval. The interval can be of time,
area, or volume;
– The probability of the event occurring is the same in each
interval;
– The number of occurrences in one interval is independent of the
number of occurrences in other intervals.

where e = 2,71828 and is the average number of

occurrences per unit interval
 Poisson distribution
• The average number of monthly accidents at a given intersection is
three. What is the probability that four accidents occur at the
intersection in a given month?

𝜇𝑥 𝑒− 𝜇
𝑃 ( 𝑥 )=
𝑥!

• What is the probability that more than four accidents occur at the
intersection in a given month?
1. Calculate P(0), P(1), P(2), P(3) and P(4)
2. Add these probabilities
3. Subtract the sum from 1
 Next lecture
• Continuous distributions