Demography Cycle

Ashish Gaur
Assistant Professor
Department of Community Medicine
What is Demography
 Definition
Demography is the ”scientific study of human
population in which includes study of changes in
population size ,composition and its distribution”
 DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSE
It deals with the five demographic processes
 FERTILITY
 MORTALITY
 MARRIAGE
 MIGRATION
 SOCIAL MORBILITY
 Source of demography
Population Censuses
National Sample
Surveys Registration
Records ofvitalstatistics
Periodic publication by WHO, Registrar
general India, DGHS new Delhi, State
health directorate
Miscellaneous-hospitals, nursing home
 DEMOGRAPHIC CYCLE
1. First Stage - High Stationary:
This stage is characterized by a high birth rate and high
death rate, no any change in size and population.
Indian was in this stage till 1920.

2. Second Stage - Early Expending:

The death rate begins to decline (starts decreasing) and
birth rate no change. initial increase in
Population.
Many countries in South Asia and Africa are in this
phase.
3. Third Stage - Late Expanding:
The birth rate begins to decline while the death rate
still decreases and continue population increase
because birth exceed deaths.
India has entered this phase. In a no. of developing
countries like Chine and Singapore etc. birth rates
have declined rapidly.

4. Fourth Stage - Low Stationary:

This stage is characterized by a low birth rate & low
death rate and stability in population.
Zero Population growth has already been recorded in
Austria during 1980-85 and growth rates as little as 0.1
were recorded in UK, Denmark, Sweden and Belgium
During 1980-85.
5. Fifth Stage - Declining:
The population begins to decline because birth
rate is lower then the death rate.
Some East European countries, notably
Germany and Hungary are experiencing this
stage.
Demographic Transition Model
YEAR 2011 2020
Population 1,210,193,422 1,384,660,352
Growth Rate 1.64% 1.2%
Birth Rate 22.2/1000 population 18.2/1000 population
Death Rate 7.1/1000 population 7.3/1000 population
Life expectancy 67.13 years 69.7 years
Male- 66.9 years Male- 68.4 years
Female- 70 years Female- 71.2 years

Fertility rate 2.51 children born/ 2.17 children born/

woman woman
Infant mortality rate 43 death/1000 live birth 29.94 death/1000 live
birth
Sex Ratio 1000 males per 940 108.18 males per 100
females females
SOME DIFFERENT
FACTOR OF
DEMOGRAPHY
Literacy Rate
Marriage Rate
 Birth Rate
The number of live births per 1000 estimated mid-year
population in a given year.

 The birth rate is an unsatisfactory measure of fertility

because the total population is not exposed to child
bearing.
 Not give a true idea of the fertility of a population
 It is also known as crude birth rate
 General Fertility Rate (GFR)
Number of live births per 1000 women in the
reproductive age-group (15-44 or 49 years) in a given
year.

GFR is a better measure of fertility than the crude

birth rate because the denominator is restricted to the
number of women in the child bearing age rather than
the whole population.
Major weakness of this rate is that not allow women
in the denominator are exposed to the risk of childbirth.
General Marital Fertility Rate (GMFR)
Number of live births per 1000 married women in the
reproductive age group (15-44 or 49 year) in a given
year.
 Age-specific Fertility Rate (ASFR)
Number of live births in a year to 1000 women
in any specified age-group.

It throws light on the fertility pattern.

Age-specific Martial Fertility Rate (ASMFR)
Number of live births in a year to 1000 married women
in any specified age-group.
 Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
 Summing the age-specific fertility rate for all ages.
 If 5 years age groups are used, the sum of the rates is
multiplied by 5.
 It gives the approximate magnitude of completed
family size.
 It is Average number of children a woman have if she
were to pass through her reproductive year bearing
children at the same rate as the women now in each
age group.
 Total Martial Fertility Rate (TMFR)
Average number of children that would be born
to married woman if she experience the current
fertility pattern throughout her reproductive
span.
 Gross Reproduction Rate (GRR)
Average number of girls that would be born to a
woman if she experience the current fertility
pattern throughout her reproductive span (15-
44 or 49 years).
Assuming no mortality.
 Infant Mortality Rate
Ratio of infant deaths registered in a given year
to the total number of live birth registered in
the same year
Usually expressed as rate per 1000 live birth
Thank you