Population Geography

 Distribution of World
Population
 Rates of Population
Growth
 Demographic Transition
Theory
 Overpopulation (Malthus
and Neo-Malthusians
Humanity has wandered the
earth for a very long time.

The first hominids roamed eastern Africa 5-7

million years ago.
The first modern humans walked
out of Africa as hunter-gatherers
only 70,000 years ago.
At that time there were probably
about 1 million humans on Earth

Graph Source: www.census.gov & www.wikipedia.org

When Darwin published On the Origin of
Species there were 1 billion humans

Graph Source: www.census.gov & www.wikipedia.org

When I was born there were
3.6 billion humans

Graph Source: www.census.gov & www.wikipedia.org

The U.S. Census Bureau estimates the world
population at:

6,914,504,604 humans today

…and counting!
Our impacts
are growing.

Las
Vegas,
Nevada
LANDSAT
Images
1973 - 2006
Human Impact on The Environment

Human Impact
Human Impact on
on the
the Environment,
Environment, 1700
2002
2032

Source: Hugo Ahlenius. 2003. UNEP/GRID-Arendal. Global Environmental Outlook 3, 2002.

 WHERE ARE THE PEOPLE
DISTRIBUTED?
Densely Population Areas Sparsely Population Areas
• East Asia • arid lands
• South Asia • tropical rainforests
• Southeast Asia • highlands
• Europe • high latitudes
• North America
 World and Country Population
Totals
Distribution and Structure: 3/4 of people live on 5% of
earth's surface!
Total: 6.8 billion on planet as of March 5, 2010
Current World Population Counter from U.S Census Bureau
Five most populous regions and countries
REGION POPULATION COUNTRY POPULATION
 East Asia 1.6 billion China 1.3 billion
 South Asia 1.5 billion India 1.1 billion
 Europe 1 billion U.S. 300 million
 SE Asia 600 million Indonesia 250 million
 Eastern N. America &
Canada 275 million Brazil 188 million
Kolkata, India
Rajasthan, India
Overpopulation is when there are too many people
relative to available resources. Simple density is not the
determinant.
 Human Population Projections
How many people will the planet eventually support?
The U.S. Census Bureau and the United Nations Statistics
Division both agree that world population will level off
somewhere between 9 and 11 billion people and then start
to fall.
 Doubling Time
• How long will it take for a population
of a given area to double in size?

• Divide 70 by the annual population

natural increase rate and you find the
doubling time.

World = 58 Source: National Geographic Magazine

Sub-Saharan Africa = 30 Example: Bangladesh
Uganda = 20 years 70 / R.N.I. => 70/2.09 = 33.5 years
Costa Rica = 80
Bangladesh with a population of
U.S.A. = 128 years 144.3 million people in 2005 will
Denmark = 333 years have approximately 288.6
Russia = ? million people in 2038, if the
population continues to grow at
Japan = ? current rates.
Rates of Natural Increase
Total Fertility Rate
Total Fertility Rate - the average number of Palestinian Fertility

children a women will have in her Territories

1975-1980
Rate

7.39

childbearing years. This rate varies from just 1980-1985

1985-1990
7.00

6.43

over 1 (Japan, Italy) to around 7 (Niger, Mali). 1990-1995 6.46

1995-2000 5.99

The U.S. rate is 2. 2000-2005 5.57

Total
2.1 is generally regarded as the U.K. fertility
rate
replacement rate (the rate at which a 1975-1980 1.72
population neither grows nor shrinks) in 1980-1985 1.80

the developed world. In less developed 1985-1990 1.81

1990-1995 1.78
countries this rate should be higher to 1995-2000 1.70
account for so many children not 2000-2005 1.66

reaching childbearing age.

Africa Fertility
Rate

1975-1980 6.60

1980-1985 6.45

1985-1990 6.11

1990-1995 5.67

1995-2000 5.26

2000-2005 4.97
Infant Mortality Rate – the number of deaths of children under the age
of one per thousand live births. The rate ranges from as low as 3
(Singapore, Iceland) to as much as 150 (Sierra Leone, Afghanistan). The
U.S. rate is just over 6. High infant mortality tends to result in higher
fertility rates as families seek “insurance” for the loss of children.
 World Death Rates
 Epidemiological Transition is the shift from
infectious to degenerative diseases that
occurs with development.
 Infectious diseases (developing world)
– HIV/AIDS
– SARS
– Malaria
– Cholera
 Degenerative diseases (developed countries)
– Obesity
– Tobacco use
Adults and Children Living with
HIV/AIDS, mid-2006
Life Expectancy
Life Expectancy
 Rapid increase
throughout world
 Infant mortality rate
declining in most
countries
 Antibiotics/immunization
 Increasing standards of
living
 Influences on Birth Rates
 Family planning
programs – India,
Thailand,
Bangladesh, etc.
 Contraceptive
technology
 Role of mass media
– Radio/TV Soap Operas
("Twende na Wakati" in
1990s Tanzania, which
means "Let's Go with the
Times" Government Billboard, Indonesia
 Demographic  Stage one (preindustrial/pre-
agricultural)
Transition Model – Crude birth/death rate high
– Fragile, but stable, population
 Stage two (improved agriculture
and medicine)
– Lower death rates
– Infant mortality rate falls
– Natural increase very high
 Stage three (attitudes change)
– Indicative of richer developed
countries
– Higher standards of
living/education
– Crude birth rate finally falls
 Stage four (low growth or Z.P.G.)
– Crude birth and death rates low
– Population stable
– Populations aging
 Stage five (declining)
– Crude birth rates exceptionally low
– death rates low
– Population decreasing
– Populations aging rapidly
 Problems with the
Demographic Transition Model
• based on European experience, assumes all
countries will progress to complete
industrialization and that this is key issue
• many countries reducing growth rate
dramatically without increase in wealth or
industrial economies – TV and family planning
seem to be at work
• on the other hand, some countries “stuck” in
stage 2 or stage 3, particularly in Sub-Saharan
Africa and Middle East
 Population Pyramids
Population Pyramids quickly show
• age distributions
• demographic booms and busts
• sex ratios
• dependency ratios
Wide base depicts young
population; narrow base suggests
declining birth rates or growing
elderly population.
 Population Control
 Challenges
– Manufacture/distribution
expense
– Religion
– Low female status
 Many studies show that fastest
way to reduce fertility rate is to
encourage more women to get
educated
– Preference for male children
– Female Infanticide
  When consumption of
Overpopulation natural resources by
people outstrip the ability
of a natural region to
replace those natural
resources.
 Jean Antoine
Condorcet (1743 – 1794)

• predicted that innovation and

the resulting increased wealth
and choice it creates would
provide alternate foods and
resources in the future and lead
to fewer children per family and
improving societies: larger
populations are good because
they lead to more innovations
and ideas.
• believed that society was
perfectible
 Thomas Malthus on Population
An Essay on the Principle of Population, 1798

Malthus, responding to
Condorcet, predicted
population would outrun
food supply, leading to a
decrease in food per person.

His Assumptions:
 Populations grow exponentially. Food Population
 Food supply grows arithmetically. 2 2
 Food shortages and chaos inevitable. 4 4
8 16
16 256
 Population J-Curve
This graphs depicts the actual growth in human population
from the beginning of agriculture until 2000!
 Population and the
Environment
I=PxAxT
Impact = Population x Affluence x Technology
Population-influenced environmental problems:
• Global Warming
• Habitat Loss / Endangered Species
• Resource Depletion
• Food Shortages? Not globally, but regionally.
Population, Affluence, and
Resource Consumption
 Population, Affluence, and
Resource Consumption

Source: World Bank, 2012: siteresources.worldbank.org/

 Technology, Energy Consumption, and
Environmental Impact
There has been a dramatic increase in:
• individual energy use over time: 3,000 kcal/person -
300,000 kcal/person (each of us in the U.S. has the
equivalent of about 100 energy servants)
• the power of technology to change the environment:
think stone axe versus bulldozer versus atomic bomb.
• the scope and severity of environmental impacts.

Individual Annual Energy Use (Goudie, 2006)