Risk and Probability

Facilitator
Date

© 2007 Weatherford. All rights reserved.

 What we will look at

• We will be discussing the concept of risk in more detail.

• Goal is to provide you with a base knowledge to help in making
decisions about risk.
• Risk and probability are very complex subjects.

© 2007 Weatherford. All rights reserved.

2
 Risk

• Is made up of severity and probability / frequency.

© 2007 Weatherford. All rights reserved.

3
 Severity

• Is how bad the incident could be.

• What is the outcome that could happen.
• Can be in terms of:
– Damage to equipment.
– Injury or illness to people.
– Cost in money.
– Damage to company reputation.
– Damage to environment.

© 2007 Weatherford. All rights reserved.

4
 Severity

Definition of harm to people:

© 2007 Weatherford. All rights reserved.

5
 Consequence

Definition of harm/damage to assets:

© 2007 Weatherford. All rights reserved.

6
 Consequence

Definition of harm/damage to environment:

© 2007 Weatherford. All rights reserved.

7
 Consequence

Definition of harm/damage to reputation :

© 2007 Weatherford. All rights reserved.

8
 Consequence of Incident

• The previous guidelines explain what each level of consequence is.

• After an incident has occurred the loss/impact needs to be
determined and compared to the guidelines.
• Involve expertise of others if needed. For example the warehouse or
accountants can tell you the cost of equipment that’s damaged.
• Always record the harm/damage.

© 2007 Weatherford. All rights reserved.

9
 Exposure

• The more we are exposed to a hazard the more risk there is that
hazard will cause us harm.
• Exposure can be expressed by the length of time or number of times
we interact with a hazard.

Using the handling of caustic soda as an example:

Roustabout # 1 handles caustic soda every day. What is the exposure
he has?
Roustabout #2 handles caustic soda once a week. What is the
exposure he has?
Who has a higher risk level ?

© 2007 Weatherford. All rights reserved.

10
 Probability

• Is made up of exposure and probability.

– Exposure is the length of time or duration we interact with the
hazard.
– Probability is chance that a sequence of events needed for an
incident occur will happen.

© 2007 Weatherford. All rights reserved.

11
 Probability

• Probability is the chance that a set sequence of events will occur.

• To understand probability you need to understand the step or
actions that will occur.

Using the of handling caustic soda as an example:

Roustabout # 1 carries caustic soda but carries the caustic soda in a
closed container. What is the chance that the caustic soda will come
into contact with him?
Roustabout #2 carries caustic soda but carries the caustic soda in an
open container. What is the chance that the caustic soda will come
into contact with him?
Who has the higher risk level?

© 2007 Weatherford. All rights reserved.

12
 Probability

• To understand probability you should:

– Understand the possible outcomes.
– Understand how many outcomes can occur at a given time.
– Understand if previous outcomes affect future outcomes.

Walking

Left

Keep walking

Stop

Right

Trip

Stumble

Fall to ground

Roll Ankle

Step over

Nothing

© 2007 Weatherford. All rights reserved.

13
 Simple Probability Exercise

How many side are their on a coin?

How many sides can a coin land on in each flip?

What is the probability of a coin landing on ‘heads’? Flip

Heads

2 sides / 1 side possible each flip = ½ or 50% Tails

© 2007 Weatherford. All rights reserved.

14
 Simple Probability Exercise

What is the probability of rolling a ‘6’ with one die?

What is the probability of rolling a ‘6’ 2 dice?

© 2007 Weatherford. All rights reserved.

15
 Probability in the Workplace

What are the possible outcomes in the picture below?

Imagine a person walking through the area.

© 2007 Weatherford. All rights reserved.

16
 Probability in the Workplace

What are the possible outcomes in the picture below?

Imagine a person walking through the area.

© 2007 Weatherford. All rights reserved.

17
 Probability

• The more complex the situation the more possible outcomes there
are.
• Unlike simple situations like a coin toss the workplace is complex
and previous outcomes may affect future outcomes.

Flip

Heads

Walking

Left

Keep walking

Tails

Stop

Right

Trip

Stumble

Fall to ground

Roll Ankle

Step over

Nothing

© 2007 Weatherford. All rights reserved.

18
 Probability

Definition for the level of probability.

© 2007 Weatherford. All rights reserved.

19
 Determining Probability

• Things help determine probability include:

– Basing probability on external sources of information.
• EG number on road accidents in a particular location.
– Expertise of those involved in the situation.
– Understanding the steps involved in a task and what variation at
any step can result in.
• In the workplace the determining of probability is generally based on
opinion.
• You should back up your opinion with facts.

© 2007 Weatherford. All rights reserved.

20
 Questions

© 2007 Weatherford. All rights reserved.

21