A Climatology Based Crop Yield Prediction Model Architecture Using IoT and

Machine Learning

Faculty of Science and Technology, Dept. of Computer Science

Undergraduate thesis

Student Name ID Contributio

n
1. Sultan, Md Tawhid 16-32275-2 26%
2. Mustarik, Al 16-31994-2 26%
3. Islam, Md Mahidul 16-32100-2 26%
4. Mahmud, Shahrida 16-32239-2 22%
Supervis Md. Asiful Islam
or:
Content

1. Problem Definition
2. Literature Review
3. Research Questions
4. Research Methodology
5. Proposed Model
6. Result Analysis Analysis
7. Synthesis
8. Future Work
Problem definition
➢ Hard to select suitable crops on different weather.
 Literature Review

S.no. Author and year Techniques or Algorithm Limitations

1. Andreas Kamilaris
Feng Gaoy
propose Agri-IoT data analytic solutions,based on real-time streams
of data coming from different sources like sensory systems,
Their Agri-IoT is not that
much flexible and not
cameras, images from drones, online weather forecasting
Francesc X. (2016) services,online streams for identification of events . adaptable to every
farming scenario.

2. Ahmed Khattab
Ahmed Abdelgawad
propose a cloud-based IoT architecture for precision
agriculture .composed of three layers: a frontend layer ,a gateway
Only prototype to show the real
time data through IoT device
layer , a back-end layer. A prototype of the proposed architecture is reading.No implementations
(2016) built further after that.

3. Kushwaha, Ashwani
Kumar, and Sweta
tried to predict the crop yield, suggest the best crop to improve the
quality and profitability of the agriculture sector by processing Big
Institutional
constraints,land
Data using Hadoop platform and helps to find which particular crop
Bhattachrya (2015) would be suitable for a particular type of soil. possession and
infrastructure

4. P. Vinciya, Dr. A.
Valarmathi (2016)
this paper has talked about unstructured stored data of crop yielding
and proposed a prediction model using MLR and Decision tree
only theoretically
described, practical or
algorithm and Classification. They used past data set as train data
and for test dataset they have used sensors data which was real world scenarios have
deployed in the agriculture field.this model can predict crop not been given
production and as well as profit or loss.
Research Questions

➢ What are the impact of climate in crop yield?

➢ How to collect data of micro-climate?

➢ How to predict the crop yield from micro-climate data?

➢ How farmers can be benefited using this model?

Research Methodology

Constructive research

➢ Problem has been find out based on real life scenario.

➢ Problem related research paper or related work have been reviewed
to learn more about this problem.
➢ A theoretical model has been built.
➢ Finally a model has been implemented using machine learning and
IOT.
➢ After implementation the model has been examined with real time
data
Proposed Model

Fig 1: Overall model for crops prediction

Proposed Model

Fig 2: Dataset preparation for crops prediction

 Proposed Model
Original Dataset:
Result Analysis
LINEAR REGRESSION
  AUS AMON BORO POTATO WHEAT
R2 0.487 0.485 0.232 0.456 0.468
Mean Absolute Error 0.097 0.05 0.022 0.106 0.028

Mean Squared Error 0.017 0.006 0.001 0.021 0.002

Root Mean Squared Error 0.13 0.078 0.028 0.144 0.04

POLYNOMIAL REGRESSION
  AUS AMON BORO POTATO WHEAT
R2 0.182 0.138 0.175 0.194 0.189
Mean Absolute Error 0.128 0.072 0.022 0.14 0.038

Mean Squared Error 0.027 0.01 0.001 0.031 0.002

Root Mean Squared Error 0.164 0.1 0.029 0.175 0.05

GRADIENT BOOSTED TREE

  AUS AMON BORO POTATO WHEAT
R2 0.427 0.482 0.091 0.389 0.165
Mean Absolute Error 0.104 0.051 0.021 0.114 0.031

Mean Squared Error 0.019 0.006 0.001 0.023 0.003

Root Mean Squared Error 0.137 0.078 0.031 0.153 0.05

Fig 3: Prediction Analysis

Result Analysis
Web application:

Fig 4: Data from the user device

Result Analysis

Web application:

Fig 5: Crops prediction based on user data

Synthesis/Conclusion

Implementation:

➢ IOT device

Fig 6: Real-time data collection

Synthesis/Conclusion(Cont’d)

➢ Proposed Model
➢ Web Application

Limitations:

➢ Location identification
➢ Shortage of training data set
➢ Unseasonably weather changes
Future work

➢ Location Identification Using GPS System

➢ Help the Meteorological Department with data.

➢ Smart Irrigation System

➢ Advance Mobile Application

➢ Once at a time in weeks weather updating

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