STRATEGIES FOR

RESEARCH
Approaching the Paper Assignment
 OUTLINE
• Part I: Basic Steps
• Key Steps in Research
• Defining a Topic
 Example: Political Radicalism
• Expressing the Question in Terms of
Variables
• Imagining Potential Explanations
• Framing Hypotheses
• Clarifying the Model
• From Concept to Measurement
 OUTLINE (cont.)
• Testing Hypotheses
• Challenges, Technical and Analytical
• Postscript: On Skewness
• Part II: What You Will Do in Your
Paper!
 Key Steps in Research

1. Observing variation in a variable, and proposing

a preliminary explanation

2. Stating a hypothesis

3. Testing the hypothesis

 Defining a Topic

General Theme: Political radicalism

On definition: What do we mean by “radicalism”?

General Question: What are the sources of political

radicalism?

Specific Question: Why is there more political radicalism

in some societies (or locales) than in others? Or, in other
words, what explains variation (or variance) in levels of
political radicalism in societies around the world?
Expressing the Question in Terms of Variables

Radicalism = “dependent variable” = Y

Source or cause or explanation = “independent variable”

=X

Conceptualization: Y = f(X)

or, with greater complexity,

Y = f(X1 + X2 + X3 ….. Xk)

Imagining Potential Explanations

1. Poverty

2. Inequality

3. Fundamentalist religious indoctrination

4. Colonial suppression

5. Loss of privileged status

 Framing Hypotheses
• In comparing [units of analysis], those
having [one value on the independent
variable] will be more likely to have [one
value on the dependent variable] than will
those having [a different value on the
independent variable]. Or,

• The greater (or lesser) the value of X, the

greater (or lesser) the value of Y.
Clarifying the Model:

Inequality might lead to rage, which in turn leads to

radicalism

Poverty might affect calculations of risk (since poor

people have less to lose than others), and that calculation
might bolster willingness to engage in radical action

Thus “rage” and “risk calculation” would constitute

intervening variables
 From Concept to Measurement—
The Problem of Operationalization

Political radicalism: demonstrations, riots, assassinations… (Y)

Plausible independent variables:

poverty (X1)
inequality (X2)
colonial suppression (X3)
extremist indoctrination (X4)
loss of privileged status (X5)
authoritarian repression (X6)

Question: How to find indicators that are reliable and valid?

 The Technical Challenge

Analyzing variation in levels of political radicalism—

in other words, discerning a pattern within the variance

Sample hypothesis: The higher the level of poverty (X),

the greater the degree of political radicalism (Y)

Empirical question: Is there covariance between these

variables? Any kind of systematic relationship? Do they vary
together? If so, to what degree?
 The Analytical Challenge(s)

1. Establishing cause-and-effect

2. Considering unobserved (lurking) variables—

the “What else?” question

1. Assessing roles of other X variables

2. Inventing alternative explanations for any

observed relationship (how might we interpret
a positive relationship between poverty and
radicalism?)
Looking Ahead and Beyond….

1. What if all bivariate relationships support the

the separate hypotheses? What then?

2. Check relationships among the independent variables:

Are they measuring different things? Or the same?

3. Can we identify the relationship between Y and, say, X1,

while controlling for the effects of X2 and X3?
 YOUR PROJECTS:
DATASETS

• NES2000.sav
• States.sav
• World.sav
 GETTING STARTED
• Scan data set(s)
• Select a dependent variable (Y)
• Determine its level of measurement
• Assess variation
• Obtain (and present) univariate descriptive statistics

• Select 2+ potential independent variables (X1 … Xk)

• Check levels of measurement, variation, and (ideally)
explore descriptive statistics on each
• Explain concepts and ideas at each step
INTRODUCTION

 Why is your question important?

 Concepts and definitions [see Pollack page 10]

STATEMENT OF HYPOTHESES

 Operationalization of concepts
 Identification of dependent, independent, intervening
variables
 Formal hypotheses [see Pollack pp. 33-37 plus lecture notes]

PRESENTATION OF VARIABLES

 Levels of measurement
 Univariate descriptive statistics [including histograms
and/or bar grams, measures of central tendency and dispersion]
BIVARIATE RELATIONSHIPS

 Assess form, strength, and “significance” of relationship

 Crosstabulation: tables with frequencies, percentages,

appropriate measures of association, chi-square statistic

 Regression: Each independent variable with dependent

variable: full equation with coefficients, correlation,
scatterplot with regression line, r-squared values,
F-statistic and standard errors

MULTIVARIATE RELATIONSHIPS

 Cross-tabulation or multiple regression

 Examine difference(s) from bivariate results
CONCLUSIONS

 Accept or reject null hypotheses

 Confirm, reject, or modify hypotheses

 Provide alternative explanations for findings

 Indicate which explanation you think is most appropriate

 Describe possible avenues for further research

OVERALL LENGTH: 4-6 pages, plus tables and graphs