Inferential Statistics Overview

Jose Jurel M. Nuevo, RMT, MA CHEM, MSMT,FRIMTECH, PhD, DrPH

 • The purpose of this
presentation is to
determine which statistical
tests are appropriate for
analyzing your data.

Preface • Your data may need to be

analyzed using different
statistical tests than are
presented here, but this
presentation focuses on the
most common techniques.
 Types of Statistics/Analyses
Descriptive Statistics
Describing a phenomena
– Frequencies How many? How much?
– Basic measurements BP, HR, BMI, IQ, etc.

Inferential Statistics Inferences about a phenomena

– Hypothesis Testing Proving or disproving theories
– Correlation Associations between phenomena
If sample relates to the larger
– Confidence Intervals
population
– Significance Testing E.g., Diet and health
– Prediction
 • Getting information about a
population from a sample
• How practical are
“statistically significant”
Statistical results?
– Cost/benefit
Inference – Crucial difference
– Client acceptability
– Public and political
acceptability
– Ethical and legal concerns
 • These provide a means for drawing
conclusions about a population
given the data actually obtained
Inferential from the sample. They allow a
researcher to make generalizations
Statistics to a larger number of individuals,
based on information from a limited
number of subjects. They are based
on:
– Probability theory
– Statistical inference
– Sampling distributions
 Inferential Statistics

– Probability theory – the basis for decision-making

statistical inferences. It refers to a large number of
experiences, events or outcomes that will happen in a
population in the long run. Likelihood and chance are
similar terms. Examples are usually based on tossing a
coin and finding heads or tails. Probabilities are
statements of likelihood expressed in values from 0 to 1.0.
– p = the number of outcomes
the total possible outcomes
 – Statistical inference – statistics
enable us to judge the probability
that our inferences or estimates are
close to the truth
Inferential – Sampling distributions – are
Statistics theoretical distributions developed
by mathematicians to organize
statistical outcomes from various
sample sizes so that we can
determine the probability of
something happening by chance in
the population from which the
sample was drawn. They allow us to
know the relative frequency or
probability of occurrence of any
value in the distribution.
 • Hypotheses: a statement of
the research question that
sets forth the appropriate
statistical evaluation
– Null hypothesis “H0”:
Vocabulary statement of no differences
or association between
variables
– Alternative hypothesis “H1”:
statement of differences or
association between
variables
 • If someone claims that all
swans are white,
confirmatory evidence (in
the form of lots of white
swans) cannot prove the
Disproving assertion to be true.
the Null • Contradictory evidence (in
the form of a single black
swan) makes it clear the
claim is invalid.
The Scientific Method
Observatio
n

Hypothesis

Experiment

Revise H
Results

Evidence
Evidence
inconsistent
supports H
with H
 Hypothesis Testing
• By hypothesizing that the mean response of a
population is 26.3, I am saying that I expect
the mean of a sample drawn from that
population to be ‘close to’ 26.3:
Px

24.5 25.0 25.5 26.0 26.5 27.0 27.5 28.0

x
 Hypothesis
Testing
• What if, in
collecting data to
test my
P x
hypothesis, I
observe a
sample mean of
26?
24.5 25.0 25.5 26.0 26.5 27.0 27.5 28.0

• What conclusion
might I draw?
 Hypothesis
Testing
• What if, in
collecting data to
test my
P x
hypothesis, I
observe a
sample mean of
27.5?
24.5 25.0 25.5 26.0 26.5 27.0 27.5 28.0

• What conclusion
might I draw?
 Hypothesis Testing
• What if, in collecting data to test my
hypothesis, I observe a sample mean of 30?
• What conclusion might I draw?
Px

?
24.5 25.0 25.5 26.0 26.5 27.0 27.5 28.0

x
 • If the observed sample
mean seems odd or unlikely
under the assumption that
H0 is true, then we reject H0
Hypothesis in favor of H1.
Testing
• We typically use the p-value
as a measure of the
strength of evidence
against H0.
 • One-tailed hypothesis:
outcome is expected in a
single direction (e.g.,
administration of
experimental drug will result
in a decrease in systolic BP)
Vocabulary • Two-tailed hypothesis: the
direction of the effect is
unknown (e.g., experimental
therapy will result in a
different response rate than
that of current standard of
care)
4. Define the Area of
Rejection.
 • Hypothesis testing – 5 basic steps
– Make a prediction
– Decide on a statistical test to use
Inferential – Select a significance level and a
critical region (region of rejection of
Statistics the null hypothesis). To do this you
must consider two things
• Whether both ends (tails) of
the distribution should be
included.
• How the critical region of a
certain size will contribute to
Type I or Type II errors.
 Inferential Statistics

• Hypothesis testing cont.

– Computing the test statistic - The test statistic is not a
mean, sd or any form of descriptive data. It is simply a
number that can be compared with a set of results
predicted by the sampling distribution
– Compare the test statistic to the sampling distribution
(table) and make a decision about the null hypothesis –
reject it if the statistic falls in the region of rejection.
– Consider the power of the test – its probability of
detecting a significant difference – parametric tests are
more powerful
 Remember, if a printsout shows a two-tailed test result,
and you wanted a one-tailed result, divide the two
tailed p value by 2.

Example: p = .080 (two-tailed) or p>.05

Levels of
Significance
p = .040 (one-tailed) or p<.05

The first would not be statistically significant, whereas,

the second would be statistically significant
Calculated/computed/critical value
Computing Calculated Value
– Use statistical test to derive some calculated value
(e.g., t value or F value)

Obtain Critical Value

– a criterion used based on df and alpha level (.05 or
.01) is compared to the calculated value to
determine if findings are significant and therefore
reject Ho
 Reject or Fail to Reject Ho
– CALCULATED value is compared to
the CRITICAL value to determine if
Calculated/computed/critical
the difference is significant enough
value to reject Ho at the predetermined
level of significance
• If CRITICAL value > CALCULATED
value --> fail to reject Ho
• If CRITICAL value < CALCULATED
value --> reject Ho
• If reject Ho, only supports H1; it
does not prove H1
 • If reject Ho and conclude groups are
really different, it doesn’t mean
they’re different for the reason you
Testing hypothesized
– may be other reason
Hypothesis • Since Ho testing is based on sample
means, not population means,
there is a possibility of making an
error or wrong decision in rejecting
or failing to reject Ho
– Type I error
– Type II error
 • Type I error -- rejecting Ho
when it was true (it should
have been accepted)
– equal to alpha
– if  = .05, then there’s a 5%
Testing chance of Type I error
Hypothesis • Type II error -- accepting Ho
when it should have been
rejected
– If increase , you will
decrease the chance of Type
II error
Outcomes of Statistical Decision Making
 • One sample t-test or paired t-test =
N-1
• Independent t-test = N-2
Degrees of • Chi-square test =
Freedom (# rows - 1) x (# columns – 1)
ANOVA :
df between groups = (# levels or
groups – 1)
df within groups = (# subjects - #
of levels)
Correlations = N-2