DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING

CE-203 PROJECT

STUDY-PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD

ANALYSIS
Submitted by:
Nitesh Aggarwal (2K20/CE/103)
Vishal Gupta (2K20/CE/163)
Under the supervision of GP
Introduction

 The process of predicting strong ground motions for a given site is called
seismic hazard analysis.
 There are two basic types of seismic hazard analysis :
Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (DSHA)
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA)
Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis

 DSHA is the original seismic hazard analysis .

It represents a single scenario and is intended to be conservative.
1. Identity the active sources and magnitudes.
2. Compute the closest source-to-site distances.
3. Use attenuation relationships to compute ground motions.
4. Identify the governing ground motions that is the largest ground
motions .
Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis

 There are two major problems with DSHA :

1. Doesn’t deal explicitly with uncertainty.
2. Only deals with the possibility of EQ ,not the likelihood.
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

 PSHA was developed in the 1970s as a means for accounting for most of
the uncertainties involved with the seismic hazard .
 PSHA acknowledges that we don’t know certain important aspects to the
problem:
1. Where the EARTHQUAKE will occur
2. How big the EARTHQUAKE will be
3. The intensity of ground motions at the site
4. When the EARTHQUAKE will occur
Probability
Theory
 In order to understand PSHA , we need to briefly study about a few important
principles related to probability .
 PSHA is based on the Total Probability Theorem which states that we
can compute the total probability of a system by summing the individual
probabilities from each contributing part .
Probability
Theory
Probability Nomenclature:
 P[A]=Probability of A
 P[A|B]= Probability of A given “B”
 P[A=a|B=b] = Probability that A=a given
B=b
 µ= mean value
 σ =standard deviation
Probability
Theory
 Total Probability theorem
Probability
Theory
So how do we compute individual probabilities ?

Probability Density Function , f(x)

There are three main types of PDFs that we use regularly in earthquake
engineering :
1. Uniform Distribution
2. Normal Distribution
3. Lognormal Distribution
Probability
Theory

1.Uniform Distribution

3.Lognormal Distribution

2.Normal Distribution
Probability
Theory
Cumulative Density Function , F(x)

Here Φis standard normal CDF

The CDF is simply the integral of the PDF, and there is no closed-form solution for
it.
Where will the Earthquake occur ?

 Spatial Uncertainty is the uncertainty associated with not knowing where an

earthquake will occur. We typically divide the source up into small segments
and compute the likelihood that it could come from each segment.
How big will the Earthquake be ?
 We deal with uncertainty in earthquake size by using Recurrence Laws.

There are three general types of recurrence laws:

1. Slip-Dependent Laws- are assigned to faults that are known to have
an approximate average annual slip rate.
2. Gutenberg-Richter Laws- are widely used. They essentially state that the no.
of earthquakes occurring annually from a given source is a log-linear
function of the magnitude.
3. Characterstic earthquake Laws-In 1980s paleoseismologist’s began to note
that some faults seemed to have a “characterstic earthquake” instead of
a linear distribution of big EQs . Small EQs were still linearly
distributed ,just not the big ones.
Seismic Hazard Curves

 A seismic hazard curve is a function relating a given ground motion parameter to

its mean annual rate of exceedance ,λ.

In a PSHA, the seismic hazard curves computed for each source are summed together
to provide the total seismic hazard.
When will the Earthquake occur ?

 Temporary uncertainty is the uncertainty associated with when an

earthquake of a given size will occur.
 Because earthquakes occur infrequently relative to the lifetime of our
designs, we can term it as random and independent processes, we can then
apply the Poisson Probability Model.
When will the Earthquake
occur ?

 Poisson probability model :

 PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC
HAZARD ASSESSMENT OF
TEHRAN
BASED ON ARIAS INTENSITY –
 A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in terms of Arias intensity was
case study
presented for the city of Tehran.
 Tehran is the capital and the most populated city of Iran. From economical,
political and social points of view, Tehran is the most significant city of
Iran. Many destructive earthquakes happened in Iran in the last centuries.
Historical references indicate that the old city of Rey and the present Tehran
have been destroyed by catastrophic earthquakes at least 6 times. Existence
of active faults like North of Tehran, Mosha and North and South of Rey is
the main causes of seismicity of this city.
 The earthquake catalogue with a radius of 200 km around Tehran has been
used to calculate seismicity parameters.
Recent seismicity map of Iran
ARIAS INTENSITY
 The Arias intensity measure (also termed accelerogram energy) is the sum of the
energy absorbed by a population of simple oscillators evenly spaced in frequency.

 Ix-x: Arias intensity in x direction

 ax (t): Acceleration time history in x direction
 t: Total duration of ground motion
 b. The value of the Arias intensity formula is equal to the energy of accelerogram.
PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS

 The probabilistic approach, used in this study, takes into consideration the
uncertainties in the level of earthquake magnitude, its hypo central location, its
recurrence relationship and its attenuation relationship.
1. Modeling of seismic sources,
2. Evaluation of recurrence relationship (i.e. frequency-magnitude relation),
3. Evaluation of attenuation relationships for peak ground acceleration,
4. Estimation of activity rate for probable earthquakes,
5. Evaluation of basic parameters such as maximum magnitude,
6. Evaluation of local site effects such as soil types, geotechnical characteristics
of sediments, topographic effects.
Seismic hazard maps in terms of arias
intensity in Tehran and its vicinity using
logic tree for 224 years return period
References
• Bommer J.J., Abrahamson, N.A. (2006). Why do Modern Probabilistic Seismic-
Hazard Analyses Often Lead to Increased Hazard Estimates? Bull. Seismol. Soc.
Am. 96(6), pp.1967-1977.

• Cornell, C.A. (1968). Engineering Seismic Risk Analysis, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am.
58(5), pp. 1583–1606.

• Kijko, A. (2008). Data driven probabilistic seismic hazard assessment procedure for
regions with uncertain seismogenic zones. Chapter 16. “Seismic Hazard Analysis and
Assessment”. E.S. Husebye
(ed.), Earthquake Monitoring and Seismic Hazard 235 Mitigation in Balkan Countries.
© Springer 2008.

• SANS 10160: South African National Standard. Basis of Structural Design and
Actions for Building and Industrial Structures. ISBN 978-0-626