COVID-19

IMPACT ANALYSIS
FOR
FOOD & BEVERAGE
INDUSTRY
 C-SUITE LEADER THOUGHT
DASHBOARD

DIRECT TO CONSUMER BUSINESSES TRADITIONAL DISTRIBUTION

"We have seen a big increase in orders as customers become
increasingly dependent on food delivery services, However,
we have put a number of new processes in place for us to
continue delivering Mindful Chef, whilst prioritizing the safety
of both our customers and team.”
"In a statement from British supermarket chain Sainsbury’s, said that in a
response to requests from the general public the store would be setting
aside specific time slots, both in-store and online, to accommodate elderly
and vulnerable customers. It announced it would also be introducing
further restrictions on the number of certain products customers can

According to Myles Hopper and Giles Humphries purchase at one time.”

Co-founders at Mindful Chef
According to Mike Coupe CE at Sainsbury’s
 3 Food & Beverage Industry Forecast (US$ Billion), 2020-2030

4,000
3,500
EXECUTIVE 3,000
SUMMARY
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
-
2,020 2,021 2,022 2,023 2,024 2,025 2,026 2,027 2,028 2,029 2,030

• The supply and distribution of goods are likely to impact the CG industry for a short term.
• The adoption of technological platform and solutions to address the growing consumer demand and tackle such pandemic in future will have a long-term
impact on the F&B industry.
• The demand for wellness food and clean label products is expected to increase in the near future. On the contrary, the purchasing power of consumers is
expected to decrease, owing to rise in unemployment across the globe.
• The advanced packaging and tracking technology industry is expected to grow at highest CAGR of 12% throughout the forecast period. Surge in awareness
associated with food safety among both government bodies and customers is a key driver of the industry.
 4 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) Evolution

9,000
8,000
SEVERE ACUTE 7,000
RESPIRATORY 6,000

SYNDROME 5,000
4,000
(SARS) 3,000
EVOLUTION 2,000
1,000
-
30/Apr/03 31/May/03 30/Jun/03 11/Jul/03

Key Takeaways
• Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a life-threatening respiratory disease caused by a recently identified coronavirus, the SARS-associated
coronavirus (SARS-CoV). It is believed to be an animal virus that recently crossed the species barrier to infect humans.
• The first cases of disease in humans were reported in Guangdong province, China, in November 2002, but the syndrome was only recognized three months
later. Following its emergence, transmission of the virus occurred person to person, mostly via droplets (inhalation).
• Along with China, Singapore and Canada are the moderately impacted countries across the globe.
• The overall death rate during SARS has been about 10%, however, exceeded 50% for patients aged over 60 years.
 5 Global Food & Beverage Industry Size and Forecast, 2018- 2019

FY 2019 Food Services and Hospitality

GLOBAL 19.0% Food Ingredient
FOOD & BEVERAGE • The market size of F&B industry was $8,345 billion in 2019. Advanced Packaging and Track-
INDUSTRY SIZE AND • The food service & hospitality sector was leading with 46.0% 46.2% ing Technologies

FORECAST, 2019-2020 share in the F&B industry.

22.4%
Nutraceutical/Wellness food
• Preference for plant-based food & clean label products and Convenience Food/Frozen Food
increase in number of online buyers were the major trends in Agriculture & Agri Products
the industry in 2019. 8.4%
1.0% Beverages
2.8% 0.1%

Global Food & Beverage Industry Size and Forecast, 2020 E

FY 2020 (Q1)
Food Services and Hospitality • The market size of F&B industry will be $6,864 billion, i.e., 17.7%
22.1% Food Ingredient less as compared to FY 2019.
Advanced Packaging and Tracking • The food services & hospitality, food ingredients, beverages,
39.8% Technologies agriculture & agri products, and advanced packaging & tracking
Nutraceutical/Wellness food technologies are likely to be negatively impacted in the fiscal year
Convenience Food/Frozen Food
2020.
23.8%
Agriculture & Agri Products • The consumer inclination toward meat-free products and free-form
10.5% 0.4% Beverages products has considerable increased during the pandemic.
2.6% 1.0%
 6 Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

3,000,000

2,500,000
CORONAVIRUS
2,000,000
DISEASE 2019
(COVID-19) 1,500,000
EVOLUTION 1,000,000

500,000

-
22/Jan/20 22/Feb/20 22/Mar/20 22/Apr/20

Key Takeaways
• One Asian country and seven European countries are among the ten most affected countries with corona virus, while more European countries are witnessing
an alarming increase in the number of cases.
• U.S. replaced China as the country with the highest COVID-19 cases on March 26, while more than 92% of the global coronavirus cases are currently outside
China.
• Italy was the most affected country in the European region. The death toll in the country is more than 25,000, and number of COVID-19 cases more than
189,973.
• China witnessed 4,632 death as of April 23, 2020. The number of cases rapidly declined to 58% by March 13 and to 40% by March 18, as the number of cases
in rest of the world surged and Europe became the new epicentre.
 7 OPPORTUNITY SCENARIO OF SUB-INDUSTRIES POST COVID-19

1. The demand for clean label ingredient post COVID-19 is anticipated to increase, due to changes in consumer preference.
Food Ingredient 2. The past six weeks have shown the importance of digital channels in ensuring supply chain continuity while helping to maintain social
distancing. In the post COVID-19 world where social distancing will be a new normal, digital platforms will gain more prominence.  

1. Rise in environmental awareness among consumers has enforced manufacturers to focus on development of alternative to plastic
Advanced packaging.
Packaging & 2. Food product manufacturers are further seeking for packaging made from natural sources to increase the shelf life of their products.
Tracking Technologies 3. Smart packaging has become a tool for consumer engagement and market branding opportunity for vendors. Advanced packaging
techniques help dispense relevant information about the condition and expiry of products, thus increasing consumer awareness.

1. Rise in preference for fresh frozen food without preservatives is expected to expand the market growth post COVID-19.
Convenience 2. Frozen meat, sea food, frozen pizza crust, bread, frozen dough, potatoes, and vegetables are widely used in B2B sectors such
Food/Frozen Food as restaurants . Post lockdown, these categories of frozen food products will witness rise in demand from B2B channels.

1. The demand for agricultural commodities, investments in key logistics must be enhanced. Moreover, e-commerce and
Agriculture & Agri delivery companies & start-ups need to be encouraged by implementing suitable policies and offering incentives.
Products 2. The small and medium enterprises, running low on raw materials that are supplied from the agriculture and allied sector, need
special attention so that the rural economy does not collapse due to the current economic situation.

1. The consumption of beverages is mostly out of home; the adoption of various delivery channels to deliver beverages at
Beverages home is expected to boost the sales post COVID-19.
2. The production of sanitizer by some of the alcohol manufacturers will augment the sale of alcohol, due to significant rise in
demand for sanitizer across the globe.
8 F&B INDUSTRY : RECOVERY TIMELINE (TIER 1 COMPANIES)

The tier 1 companies enforce additional measures, which vary based on whether employees have an office-based role, work in a sourcing unit, or
are working as field sales representative or retail staff. This change in possible will help to reduce the impact on manufacturing and ease the
disruption in supply chain. Educating employees on COVID-19 symptoms and prevention and enforcing precautionary measures where possible
supported by flexible sick leave policies are some of the additional changes.

2020 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Q3 Q4
Food Services &
Hospitality

Food Ingredient

Advanced Packaging &

Tracking Technologies
Convenience
Food/Frozen Food
Agriculture & Agri
Products
Beverages

Denotes the year range of recovery period of tier 1 companies in each of the vertical.
9 F&B INDUSTRY : RECOVERY TIMELINE (TIER 2 COMPANIES)

The tier 2 companies have imposed stringent restrictions on travel and this could have implications for complying with sponsor licence duties thus
result in lack of skilled labour force. In addition, new rules and regulations for working on site have been implied. Preparation for increased
absenteeism, restriction non-essential travel, and promotion of flexible working arrangements are some of the policy changes applied by tier 2
companies.

2020 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Q3 Q4
Food Services &
Hospitality
Food Ingredient

Advanced Packaging &

Tracking Technologies
Convenience
Food/Frozen Food
Agriculture & Agri
Products
Beverages

Denotes the year range of recovery period of tier 2 companies in each of the vertical.
10 F&B INDUSTRY : RECOVERY TIMELINE (TIER 3 COMPANIES)

In tier 3 companies, absenteeism will increase as health screening protocols are enforced, and employees showing symptoms will be advised to
stay home. Implementation of local containment policies may further contribute to absenteeism and labour shortage.

2020 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Q3 Q4

Food Services &

Hospitality

Food Ingredient

Advanced Packaging &

Tracking Technologies
Convenience Food/Frozen
Food
Agriculture & Agri
Products

Beverages

Denotes the year range of recovery period of tier 3 companies in each of the vertical.
11 FOOD & BEVERAGE INDUSTRY TRENDS
Consumer Trends
• Consumers are seeking for better home
meal packages during quarantine
period.
• Demand for visibility on product
sourcing and safety has increased.
• Elder consumers have switched to
purchase of goods via online channels.
• Plant-based proteins serve as clean and
safe meat alternative.
Technology Trends
• Direct-to-consumer (DTC) businesses
have evolved at a rapid pace. A
significant feature of the DTC model is
using online shopping subscriptions to
entrench brand loyalty.
• Harness powerful technology to enable
consumers during adversity can
become integrated into all aspects of
peoples lives. For instance, QR code to
scan product and tech health screening
for food delivery drivers are providing
vital consumer reassurances.
Regulatory Trends
• Japan Consumer Affairs Agency
stated that “Food related business
that had planned to make changes
to their raw material supply chain
may not be able to immediately
respond (with packaging & labeling
changes) which would cause
production to be delayed and may
in turn hinder the smooth
production and distribution of
food.”
 12 AGRICULTURE INDUSTRY OUTLOOK

Global Agriculture Industry Outlook, 2015-2019

Expected Recovery Time 2022-2025
5,800

5,600

5,400

5,200

5,000

Industry Size of $5,589 Billion in 2019 4,800

Expected Revenue Loss $922 Billion

in FY 2020 4,600

Decline in Industry Growth 12-19.5% 4,400

During 2020-2021
4,771

4,939

5,131

5,348

5,589
4,200
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Revenue ($ Billion)
 13 PETROLEUM CHEMICAL INDUSTRY OUTLOOK

Global Petroleum Chemical Industry Outlook, 2015-2019

Expected Recovery Time 2023-2025
470

460

450

440

Industry Size of $458 Billion in 2019 430

Expected Revenue Loss $157 Billion 420

in FY 2020
410
Decline in Industry Growth 15-27%
During 2020-2021 400

428

454
419

441

458
390
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Revenue ($ Billion)
14 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) Evolution

P
The lockdown in various countries due to COVID-19 has disrupted the production in manufacturing facilities either due to
Political shortage of raw materials or labor forces. The political stability plays a vital role in safeguarding the supply of food and essential
commodities during the pandemic.

The global financial crisis (GFC) arose in industrial countries during COVID, yet affected developing countries through higher

E Economi
c
interest rates; led to sharp changes in commodity prices; and resulted in reductions in investment, trade, migration, and
remittances. For most low-income countries, shocks that affect food prices or wage rates for unskilled workers have the largest
impact on poverty.

S
The cultural environment significantly influences consumer food tastes and preferences. Eating habits are dependent on the
Sociological beliefs, values, and norms of culture, which can impact on fundamentals such as dining times, portion sizes, and how individuals
eat meals

The key technological attributes that marketers must consider include the accelerating pace of change, unlimited opportunities for

T
Technologic innovation, varying research and development (R&D) budgets, and increasing regulations to update technologies in food
al production. As demand for food grows, more animals/foods will be moved around the globe creating greater disease control
issues among trading partners thus development of technology to control spread of diseases will be quiet important in future.

E
The government institutions are responsible for efficiently drafting the policy for employee and to create healthy and safety
Environmenta
environment during the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, laws are imposed to ensure a certain level of quality or reasonable
l prices for certain products.

L
Different industries hold different standards of environmental protection norm depending upon the product and production
Legal technique. The new consumers, armed with the interest and the knowledge they carry, prefer to give their business to companies
they view as more ethical, particularly about the environment in the wake of global warming.
15 FOOD & BEVERAGE INDUSTRY PESTLE IMPACT BY COUNTRY

Germany
France

Russia
China
Spain

Brazil

India
Italy
U.S.

UK
P
E
S
T
E
L
Excellent Good Fair Poor
16 COVID-19 GOVERNMENT REGULATIONS
China
The Chinese Government is
strengthening its laws by supervising
food agencies and carrying out
random inspection. On February 25,
2020, China’s President, Xi Jinping,
and the Prime Minister, Li Keqiang
issued instructions on the need to
“stabilize” agriculture. They called for
an “all-out effort” to ensure that the
pandemic did not affect the planting
of vital crops.
Italy
The president of Federalimentare, Ivano
Vacondio warned in an official statement
that the possible closure of Italy’s northern
regions could weigh on the food sector
and GDP as a whole. “The risk of a
production blockade after the coronavirus
alarm could impact heavily on the Italian
manufacturing sector, including the food
sector. Food excellence could be affected
as well, damaging a whole sector that has
so far proved to be resilient against the
depressed trend of the rest of the
economy.” – Vacondio said.  examine three vird every second.”
U.S.
The U.S. Government has taken all
necessary steps to prevent
contamination of food and ensure
smooth supply of food products in
the U.S. market. According to Tony
Corbo, the Senior Government
Affairs Representative at Food &
Water Watch said “There is no way
that food safety is not compromised
when the sole government
inspector on the slaughter line in a
chicken plant is expected to
 17 GLOBAL FOOD SERVICES & HOSPITALITY INDUSTRY SIZE, 2020

6.8%

31.5%
Global Food Services North America Europe
and Hospitality 36.8%
Industry Size and
Asia-Pacific LAMEA
Forecast, 2020
24.8%

Key Takeaways
• The impact of COVID is expected to cost $1,119 billion to the food service & hospitality industry majorly due to the lockdown imposed in various countries
across the globe.

• While few restaurants are able to maintain normal revenues by providing meals via takeout and delivery options, others are still confused on whether to
choose to functional or close temporarily. For restaurants to survive during the coronavirus crisis, they need to find creative solutions and adapt to
customers’ plight. As customers are more budget-conscious these days, one strategy for restaurant owners to consider is creating new discounted entrees.

• The stakeholder in the food service & hospitality industry should focus on staff health and hygiene. Moreover, food service companies should ramp up
cleaning processes to ensure safety of customers as well as their employees.

• Food that has been prepared by chefs is expected to witness surge in demand, owing to health awareness and hygiene that is maintained while preparing
the food/recipe. Thus, companies in the food service industry can focus on providing customers with higher quality food cooked in cloud kitchens.
 18 GLOBAL FOOD INGREDIENT INDUSTRY SIZE, 2020

12.0%
Global Food North America Europe
37.9%
Services and 18.5%
Hospitality Industry
Size and Forecast, Asia-Pacific LAMEA
2020
31.7%

Key Takeaways
• The impact of COVID-19 is expected to cost $17 billion to the food ingredient industry majorly due to the shutdown or partial operation of food & beverage
processing companies.

• Rise in concern among consumers about the long-term health effects of artificial ingredients and additives in food products has increased the demand for
natural and healthy ingredients in food products.

• The current pandemic across the globe has further given rise to clean label products.

•  The recent outbreak of the coronavirus has significantly affected consumer behaviour. For instance, on the demand side, consumers are stockpiling shelf-
stable food products, such as processed fruit and vegetables. On the supply side, companies are struggling to meet this demand due to dearth of labours
and logistics capacity issues.
 19 GLOBAL ADVANCED PACKAGING & TRACKING TECHNOLOGIES
INDUSTRY SIZE, 2020

8.1%
Global Advanced North America
33.1%
Packaging and 23.6% Europe
Tracking Technologies
Industry Size and Asia-Pacific

Forecast, 20200 LAMEA

35.2%

Key Takeaways
• The impact of COVID-19 is expected to cost $21 billion in sales to the food ingredient industry majorly due to the shutdown or partial operation of food &
beverage processing companies.

• In several major food producing areas, dearth of labours has been witnessed. Limitation of movement is not only the key reason but also the fear of
infection among workers has negatively impacted the market growth. For example, in the Philippines, people are locked in their houses. This has stopped
the production and delivery of desiccated coconut and dehydrated bananas.

• On the contrary, the demand for packaged food items such as canned and frozen fruit and vegetables has considerable increased, due to their long shelf
life. However, the shortage of labour, partial operation of manufacturing facility, and logistic supply have restrained the market growth for a short term.
 20 GLOBAL NUTRACEUTICAL/WELLNESS TECHNOLOGIES INDUSTRY
SIZE, 2020

13.2%
29.0%
North America
Global Advanced
Packaging and Tracking Europe

Technologies Industry Size 32.0%

Asia-Pacific
and Forecast, 2020 LAMEA

25.9%

Key Takeaways
• The impact of COVID-19 on nutraceutical/wellness industry is expected to increase sales by $18 billion across the globe.

• With the outbreak of coronavirus, there has been a sharp spike in wellness-focused product purchasing. However, it may be a challenge to meet the
supply-demand gap.

• The nutraceutical/wellness product industry is majorly dependent on China for its raw materials, as 75-80% of raw materials are sourced from China to
other countries.

• The Natural Products Association (NPA) called on the federal government  to allow health food stores selling nutritional supplements to remain open
during the response to COVID-19. This move is anticipated to supplement the growth of the industry even during the pandemic.
 21 GLOBAL CONVENIENCE FOOD/FROZEN FOOD INDUSTRY SIZE, 2020

17.5%
22.5%

North America
Global Convenience
Food/Frozen Food Europe

Industry Size and Asia-Pacific

28.6%
Forecast, 2020 LAMEA
31.5%

Key Takeaways
• The impact of COVID-19 is expected to cost $55 billion in sales to the convenience food/frozen food industry majorly due to the shutdown or partial
operation and sourcing of raw materials.

• The food supply chain disruption is expected to continue at least until May 2020, as new cases of COVID-19 continue to rise. Movement restrictions will
continue for next two more months in various parts of world, which is why minimizing bottlenecks will remain crucial for major manufacturers in the
frozen food industry.

• Demand for frozen seafood products is anticipated to continue to decline in view of less grocery shopping and closure of restaurants.  Canned seafood and
other frozen food products will on the other hand be witnessing increased demand, owing to their longer shelf life and superior taste.
 22 GLOBAL AGRICULTURE & AGRI PRODUCTS INDUSTRY SIZE, 2020

6.0%

Global Agriculture & 35.5% North America

29.7%
Agri Products Europe
Industry Size and Asia-Pacific
Forecast, 2020 LAMEA

28.7%

Key Takeaways
• The impact of COVID-19 is expected to cost $232 billion in sales to the agriculture & agri products industry majorly due to the shutdown or partial
operation and sourcing of raw materials.

• Agricultural produce, which forms the key raw material for subsequent stages in the food value chain, can become a potential source of bottleneck for
the food & beverage industry. This is true especially for countries such as Australia, which imports large-scale essential agrochemicals and crop protection
products from China.

• China is home to a significant number of large-scale manufacturers, accounting for approximately 30–35% of global agrochemical production. Thus,
current disruption in supply of agrochemical to the importing nations majorly Australia has led to exploration of alternative sourcing partners (both in
terms of geography and manufacturer).
 23 GLOBAL BEVERAGES INDUSTRY SIZE, 2020

13.6%

32.1%
North America
Global Beverages
Europe
Industry Size and
30.1% Asia-Pacific
Forecast, 2020
LAMEA

24.2%

Key Takeaways
• The impact of COVID-19 is expected to cost $55 billion in sales to the beverages industry majorly due to the lockdown measures across various countries.

• The Coca Cola Beverages company in its statement released in earnings announcement for its first quarter of 2020 said that “In markets around the world,
the company subsequently saw significant changes in consumer purchase patterns, notably substantial declines in away-from-home channels.

• In at-home channels, the company witnessed early pantry loading in certain markets, followed by more normalized demand levels, along with a sharp
increase in e-commerce. Given that away-from-home channels represent approximately half of the company’s revenues, the company expects the net
effect of these consumer purchase patterns to have a significant impact on second quarter results.”
 Asia-Pacific Intelligence Centre.  
Pune ( India )
Office No.102D & E,2nd Floor,
A-3 Building E space IT park ,
Pune Nagar Road,
Pune 411014.

Tel: +91 20 66346060

help@alliedmarketresearch.com

THANK Americas
5933 NE Win Sivers Drive,

YOU!
#205, Portland, OR 97220,
United States.
Int’l:  +1-503-894-6022
Toll Free: +1-800-792-5285
Fax: +1-800-792-5285
help@alliedmarketresearch.com