L O N G Q U I Z NO.

2
QUIAMBAO, KEZIAH GRACE
CET 0212-5
C O N D I T I O N A L PROBABILITY
PROBLEM
1
A) P(A) = (80 + 2)/100 = 0.82

B) P(B) = (80 + 10)/100 = 0.9

C ) P(A | B) = P(A & B)/P(B) = (80 / 100)/0.9 =

0.89

D ) P(B | A ) = P(A & B)/P(A ) = (80 / 100)/0.82 =

0.98
C O N D I T I O N A L PROBABILITY
PROBLEM 2
(A)I F T H E C O A T I N G W E I G H T O F A S A M P L E I S H I G H , W H A T I S T H E
PROBABILITY THAT THE SURFACE R O U G H N E S S I S H I G H ? = 12/(12 + 88) =
0.12

(B)I F T H E S U R F A C E R O U G H N E S S O F A S A M P L E I S H I G H , W H A T IS THE
PROBABILITY THAT THE C O A T I N G W E I G H T I S H I G H ? = 12/(12 + 16) =
0.4286

(C)I F T H E S U R F A C E R O U G H N E S S O F A S A M P L E I S L O W , W H A T I S T H E
PROBABILITY THAT THE C O A T I N G W E IG H T I S L O W ? = 34/(88 + 34) =
0.2787
 MULTIPLICATION AND
TOTAL PROBABILITY RULES
PROBLEM 3
 APPLY BAYE'S THEOREM TO SOLVE THE PROBLEM.

E₁ = CON N ECTORS DRY

E₂ = CON N ECTORS WET
A = CONNECTOR FAILS DURING WARRANTY PERIOD
P(E₁) = 90% = 0.9
P(E₂) = 10% = 0.1
P(A/E₁) = 0.01
P(A/E₂) = 0.05

NOW, P (A) = P(E₁)P(A/E₁) + P(E₂)P(A/E₂)

= (0.9)(0.01)+(0.1)(0.05)
= 0.014 = 1.4%

1.4% CON N ECTORS FAI LS DURI N G WARRAN TY

 MULTIPLICATION AND
TOTAL PROBABILITY RULES
PROBLEM 4
(A)FIND THE PROBABILITY THAT A FAILURE IS DUE TO
LOOSEKEYS.

= 0.27 X 0.88
= 0.2376

(B)FIND THE PROBABILITY THAT A FAILURE IS DUE TO

IMPROPERLY CONNECTED OR POORLY WELDED WIRES.

= 0.13 X 0.12 = 0.0156

= 0.52 X 0.12 = 0.0624
= 0.0156 + 0.0624 = 0.078
INDEPENDENCE
PROBLEM 5
(A) A R E EVENTS A A N D B I N D E P E N D E N T ?

NO, BECAUSE B I S T HE EVENT T H A T I N D I C A T E S

T H E S A M P L E C O M P L I E S W I T H T HE
R E Q U I RE M E NT S , B I S D E P E N D E N T O N A.

(B) D ETER M I N E P(B | A )

= 88/77
INDEPENDENCE
PROBLEM 6
 LET A D E N O T E T H E E V E NT T H A T A D I S K
H A S H I G H S H O C K RESISTANCE, A N D LET B
D E N O T E T H E E V E NT T H A T A D I S K H A S
H I G H S C R A T C H RESISTANCE. A R E E V E N T S
A A N D B INDEPENDENT?

NO, B I S D E P E N D E N T O N A A S B I S T H E
EVENT THAT DENOTE D I S K S S H O C K
RESISTANCE
BAYE’STHEOREM
PROBLEM 7
(A)THE M E S S A G E C O N T A I N S FREE.

(B)THE M E S S A G E I S S P A M G I V E N T H A T IT C O N T A I N S FREE.

(C)THE M E S S A G E I S V A L I D G I V E N T H A T IT D O E S N O T C O N T A I N FREE. let us denote

that

P(F|S) = 0.6
F = message contains word free
P(F|V) = 0.04
S = message is spam
P(S) = 0.2 V = message is valid
P(V) = 0.8

(A) P(F) = P(F|S)P(S) + P(F|V)P(V)

= (0.6)(0.2) + (0.04)(0.8) = 0.152 15.20%

(B) P(S|F) = P(F|S)P(S)/P(F) = (0.6)(0.2)/(0.152) = 0.789 78.90%

(C) P(V|F^C) = P(F^C|V)P(V)/P(F^C) = (1-0.04)(0.8)/1-0.152 =

0.906 90.60%
BAYE’STHEOREM
PROBLEM 8
(A) D E T E R M I N E T H E PROBABILITY O F H I G H I N K V I S C O S I T Y
G I V E N P O O R P R I N T QUALITY.

N O P R IN T E R PROBLEM:

P(A) = 0.8
P(B) = 0.02
P(C) = 0.08
P(D) = 0.1

P O O R P R I N T QUALITY: = 0.3265
P (E|A) = 0
P (E|B) = 0.3
P (E|C) =
0.4 P (E|D)
= 0.6
(B) G I V E N P O O R P R I N T QUALITY, W H AT P R O B L E M I S
M O S T LIKELY?

= 0.0000

= 0.0612
= 0.3265

=
0.6122