Conditional probability

Baye’s rule

Problem 1
A diagnostic test has a probability0.95 of giving a positive result when applied to a person suffering
from a certain disease, and a probability0.10 of giving a (false) positive when applied to a non-sufferer. It is
estimated that 0.5 % of the population are sufferers. Suppose that the test is now administered to a person about
whom we have no relevant information relating to the disease (apart from the fact that he/she comes from this
population). Calculate the following probabilities:
(a) that the test result will be positive;
(b) that, given a positive result, the person is a sufferer;
(c) that, given a negative result, the person is a non-sufferer;
(d) that the person will be misclassified.

Given:
Let T ≡ “Test positive”, S ≡ “Sufferer”, M ≡ “Misclassified.”
P(T|S) = 0.95,
P(T|S_) = 0.10,
P(S) = 0.005. Hence
Solution:

(a) P(T) = P(T|S) P(S) + P(T|S_) P(S_)

= (0.95 × 0.005) + (0.1 × 0.995)
= 0.10425.
(b) P(S|T) = P(T|S) P(S) P(T|S) P(S) + P(T|S_) P(S_)
=0.95 × 0.005 (0.95 × 0.005) + (0.1 × 0.995)
= 0.0455.
(c) P(S_|T_) = P(T_|S_) P(S_) P(T_)
= 0.9 × 0.995 (1 − 0.10425)
= 0.9997.
(d) P(M) = P (T ∩ S_) + P (T_ ∩ S)

= P(T|S_) P(S_) + P(T_|S) P(S)

= 0.09975.

Complementary Events
Multiplicative Rule
Events with Partition
Additive Rule
REFERENCES:

Abdelkader.a@gmail.com. “Normal Distribution Problems with Solutions.” Normal Distribution

Problems with Solutions, www.analyzemath.com/statistics/normal_distribution.html?

fbclid=IwAR1kSIdzStUel6UYCPrZaaBhjdK62tq-Evj-e7k4aQvwbbCWjcta4DRPo4w.

Abdelkader.a@gmail.com. “Normal Distribution Problems with Solutions.” Normal Distribution

Problems with Solutions, www.analyzemath.com/statistics/normal_distribution.html?

fbclid=IwAR2gdWoHXC7BXrGJC8ALSDpr9sFs2oxf_cUbQ9t_gD8rVQNiGqZ7gSmt5Q0.

“Complementary Events (Solutions, Examples, Videos).” Www.onlinemathlearning.com,

www.onlinemathlearning.com/complementary-events.html.

“Complimentary Events: Definition: Problems on Complementary Event: Examples.” Math Only

Math, www.math-only-math.com/complimentary-events.html.

Jr, Rodolfo Sotto. “Engineering Data Analysis.” Academia.edu,

www.academia.edu/40125075/Engineering_Data_Analysis?

fbclid=IwAR32bOSU_U816jnyXU4eVmBuvbYIkmYcbHyJOIbuNRVH6N_mOYCMFu-55fU.
Jr, Rodolfo Sotto. “Engineering Data Analysis.” Academia.edu,

www.academia.edu/40125075/Engineering_Data_Analysis?

fbclid=IwAR0LSoXKFtYW4gLxjmKa6BIkrwYy3RTF3N8AMyefGemsoqFCcjdmOQHYLD4.

Jr, Rodolfo Sotto. “Engineering Data Analysis.” Academia.edu,

www.academia.edu/40125075/Engineering_Data_Analysis?

fbclid=IwAR0LSoXKFtYW4gLxjmKa6BIkrwYy3RTF3N8AMyefGemsoqFCcjdmOQHYLD4.

Multiplication Rule in Probability,

www.varsitytutors.com/hotmath/hotmath_help/topics/multiplication-rule-of-probability.

Solved Problems Conditional Probability,

www.probabilitycourse.com/chapter1/1_4_5_solved3.php.

Stephanie. “Hypergeometric Distribution: Examples and Formula.” Statistics How To, 17 Feb. 2020,

www.statisticshowto.com/hypergeometric-distribution-examples/?fbclid=IwAR1-

MBIXYxPOgeNUAMCA-ytoD4EDO-Y7m68KdedK-p5d1gS_5AleleeKMOI.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?
v=PfPVNfrraa8&feature=share&fbclid=IwAR1x4rHSKckxPUgIugcFGtbROr5WrIeH26cESmbjNKiIiz7GLId4jA
bCxGs

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=syVW7DgvUaY&feature=share&fbclid=IwAR3k6XG-
pPbhLRWydhXxy_H4-TlerwMB3W0Dl62z1bPcohLO2APRMcCunKg

Probability and Statistic Classroom Manual

https://www.math.upenn.edu/~mmerling/math107%20docs/practice%20on%20Bayes%20solutions.pdf