Decision Science

Answer 1

Part 1

Make the below data in Probability tree illustration

S = 0.8> YES>0.5 X0.8 = 0.4

0.2> NO>0.5 X0.2 = 0.1

Y = 0.65> YES>0.3 X0.65 = 0.195

0.35> NO>0.3 X0.35 = 0.105

P = 0.4> YES>0.2 X0.4 = 0.08

0.6> NO>0.2 X0.6 = 0.12

To calculate the probability that it was airline A, we consider the following information as interpreted
from the probability tree illustration.
Event A represents those listed breakouts for Airline Amira.

Event B represents those listed breakouts for Airline Biyas.

The event C represents those listed breakouts for Airline Chinar.

Event E presents that flight has left on time.

The previous chances are

P( A) = 0.50
P( B) = 0.30

P( C) = 0.20
The posterior chances are

P( E| A) = 0.80
P( E| B) = 0.65

P( E| C) = 0.40
We've to find the probability that it was airline A if the airplane has just left on time.

That is, we've to find P( A| E)

Substituting the previous and liability( posterior) chances into the Bayes’s Law formula, also it yields

P( A| E) = ( P( E ∣ A) × P( A))/( P( E ∣ A) × P( A) P( E ∣ B) × P( B) P( E ∣ C) × P( C))
= (0.80 ×0.50)/(0.80 ×0.500.65 ×0.300.40 ×0.20)

= 0.4/0.675
= 0.59259
Thus, the probability that it was airline A if the airplane has just left on time is0.593.
Let x be the total number of Break outs.

Airline A provides0.5 x Break outs; airline B provides0.3 x Break outs and airline C provides the
remaining0.2 x Break outs.
Notice that in total0.5 x0.3 x0.2 x = x.
The measure of on- time Break outs by airline A is0.8 *(0.5 x); by airline B is0.65 *(0.3 x), and by
airline C is0.4 *(0.2 x).
The total number of Break outs on- time by airlines A, B and C together is Total on time = 0.8 *(0.5 x)
0.65 *(0.3 x) 0.4 *(0.2 x).

The problem's question is about the contingent probability P (the flight is by A| the flight is on- time).

By the delineation of the contingent probability,

P( the flight is by A| the flight is on- time) = P28 flights by a and flight is on time 292 FP28 flight is on
time29.

The numerator of this fraction is0.4 *(0.2 x), as explained above.

The denominator is 0.8 *(0.5 x) 0.65 *(0.3 x) 0.4 *(0.2 x), due to the same reason.

Part 2
P = 280.82 A0.5 x292F280.82 A0.5 x 2B0.652 A0.3 x 2B0.42 A0.2 x29 = cancel x in the numerator
and denominator and continue =
= 280.82 A0.5292 F280.82 A0.5 2B0.652 A0.3 2B0.42 A0.229 = now apply your calculator = 0.5926
(rounded) = 59.26.

Answer 2

Part 1

Dependent Variable
The variable quantity – conjointly referred to as the response variable – is that the affair of a method
or applied mathematics analysis. Its name comes from the actual fact that it depends on or responds
to different variables. Generally, the variable quantity is that the result you would like to attain. In
promoting, the results asked area unit tied to deals profit.

Deals as a variable quantity may be checked out in various ways that, similar as deals of a selected
doll, deals of a order like toy buses, overall deals at a specific store, or so deals for the whole
company.
Independent Variable and its Influence on the variable quantity
an variable quantity is associate input to a method or analysis that influences the variable quantity.
Whereas there will solely be one variable quantity in a very study, there is also multiple freelance
variables.

When the variable quantity is deals profit, the rudiments of the promoting mix – product, price,
creation and place – can sure enough impact the variable quantity and may so be joined as
freelance variables.

Retrogression Analysis
marketing exploration employs a applied mathematics tool referred to as retrogression analysis to
live the strength of the connection between the variable quantity and also the freelance variables.
For illustration, a yoghurt look may set fidelity card abatements, base price, and time of day because
the freelance variables to check not solely the direct impact every issue has on frozen dessert deals,
however whether or not there is commerce between the variables. However, once the bottom value
is low, fidelity card abatements impact deals under once the bottom value is high, If.

Choosing the correct Variables

asking the correct question can lead you to the correct answer. The a lot of specific you'll build your
variable quantity – for case, deals of one MP3 player model as against deals of all physics – the
higher likelihood you've got of separating the freelance variables that really impact it. Also, so after
you recognize your issue, you verify it a range of various ways that.

Part 2

Regression analysis is predicated upon a useful relationship among variables and more, assumes
that the link is linear. This dimensionality assumption is needed as a result of, for the foremost half,
the theoretical applied math properties of non-linear estimation aren't well found out however by the
mathematicians and econometricians. This presents North American country with some difficulties in
economic analysis as a result of several of our theoretical models square measure nonlinear. The
differential cost curve, as an example, is by all odds nonlinear as is that the total price perform, if we
have a tendency to square measure to believe the result of specialization of labor and also the Law
of decreasing Marginal Product. There square measure techniques for overcoming a number of
these difficulties, exponential and power transformation of the information as an example, however
at the point we have a tendency to should acknowledge that commonplace normal statistical
procedure (OLS) multivariate analysis can perpetually use a linear perform to estimate what may
well be a nonlinear relationship.

The general simple regression model will be expressed by the equation.

The equation has the shape Y= a + bX, wherever Y is that the variable (that's the variable that goes
on the Y axis), X is that the experimental variable (i.e. it's planned on the X axis), b is that the slope
of the road and a is that the y-intercept.
 Part 3

Leh-
Kupwara Badgam Kargil Punch Rajouri Kathau Baramula Bandipore Srinagar
Region ladakh
Sales of Kahwa (in INR) 55328 56251 57126 58739 66984 70676 73206 80571 93168 99432

Spending in advertise (in INR) 5512 8337 8788 8828 9050 10150 11236 12538 13161 13448
Number of sales
1 1 4 5 5 7 8 8 8 9
representatives (person)
Customer-satisfaction ratings
(1=highly dissatisfied to 5 = 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 4
highly satisfied)
Answer 3. 1

Let X=X= the number of Instagram users who likes Insta-REELS: X\sim Bin (n,
p).X∼Bin(n,p).
Given n=25, p=0.75, q=1-p=0.25n=25,p=0.75,q=1−p=0.25
a)
P(X=15)=\dbinom{25}{15}(0.75)^{15}(0.25)^{25-15}P(X=15)=(1525
)(0.75)15(0.25)25−15
=0.04165835076=0.04165835076
b)

P(X=20)=\dbinom{25}{20}(0.75)^{20}(0.25)^{25-20}P(X=20)=(2025
)(0.75)20(0.25)25−20

=0.1645375882=0.1645375882
Answer 3. 2

X = # hits at the website. Given that, X ~ Normal (µ = 10000, σ

2
= 2402
). Let Z = (X – µ)/σ
denote a N(0, 1) random variable.
(a) P(X>12000)=P(Z>\frac{12000-10000}{2400})=P(Z>0.83)=1-P(Z<0.83)=0.2033.P(X>12000)=P(Z>
2400
12000−10000

)=P(Z>0.83)=1−P(Z<0.83)=0.2033.

(b) P (X < 9000) = P (Z < (9000 – 10000)/2400)

= P( Z < -4.2) = 3.4 [using normal table and symmetry]