Let white balls be A and black balls be B

n(A) = 5
n(B) = 3
n(S) = 8
Probability of drawing black ball in first attempt is

P(A) =n(A) =3 =3
n(S) 3+5 8

Probabilty of second black ball given that first ball drawn is black

P(B/A) =3-1 =2
(3-1) + 5 7

The probability that both balls drawn are black is given by

P(A∩B) =P(A) x P(B/A) =3 x 2 =3

8 7 28
Q Suppose that 250 employees in a company are divided into two groups as professionally qualified and non-
professionally qualified. Each group is further divided into male and female category. In the tabular form the total
workers are given below:

Prof Qualified Non- Prof Total

Qualified
Male 47 87 134
Female 26 90 116
Total 73 177 250
Find the following probabilities:
a) Probability of employee selected at random is male given that the selected person is professionally qualified
b) Probability of the employee selected at random is not professionally qualified given the selected person is
female
c) Probability of the employee selected at random is professionally qualified given the selected person is male
d) Probability of the employee selected at random is not professionally qualified given the selected person is male
e) Probability of employee selected at random is female given that the selected person is professionally qualified
f) Probability of employee selected at random is male given that the selected person is non professionally
qualified
g) Probability of employee selected at random is female given that the selected person is non professionally
qualified
h) Probability of the employee selected at random is professionally qualified given the selected person is female
 Q Suppose that 310 employees in a company are divided into two groups as graduate and post graduate. Each
group is further divided into male and female category. In the tabular form the total workers are given below:

graduate post graduate Total

Male 56 125 181
Female 42 87 129
Total 98 212 310

Find the following probabilities:

Frame all possible 8 conditional probabilities. (HW)
• In case of 'Not mutually exclusive events'
P(A∩B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(AUB)

• In case of 'Independant events'

P(A∩B) = P(A) X P(B)

• In case of 'Dependant events'

P(A∩B) = P(A) X P(B/A)

OR
P(A∩B) = P(B) X P(A/B)
A = A∩B + A∩B'
P(A) = P(A∩B) + P(A∩B')

P(A) == P(B)
P(A∩B) P(B) XxP(A/B)
P(A/B) + P(B') x P(A/B')
P(A) = P(A∩B) + P(A∩B')
P(A∩B’) = P(B’) X P(A/B’)

P(A) = P(B) x P(A/B) + P(B') x P(A/B')

P(B) = P(A) x P(B/A) + P(A’) x P(B/A’)
 P(A
∩B) =P(A) x P(B/A)
Similarly, P(B∩A) =P(B) x P(A/B)

P(A
∩B) = P(B∩A)

=P(A) x P(B/A) =P(B) x P(A/B)

Then we can say that:-

P(B/A) = =P(B) x P(A/B)

P(A)

P(A/B) = =P(A) x P(B/A)

P(B)
REMEMBER:
   
P(A∩B) = P(B∩A)
   
BUT:  
   
P(A/B) ≠ P(B/A)
 Let A be those women who has positive mammography
Let B be those having breast cancer

P(B) = 0.01 (1% of women who participate in routine screening have breast cancer)
Positive mammography will be A
P(A/B) = 0.8 (80% of women with breast cancer will get positive mammographies) & Breast cancer will be B
ie. B is depending on A
P(A/B') = 0.096 (9.6% without breast cancer has positive mammography)

P(B') =0.99 (100%-1% of women who participate in routine screening but didn’t have breast cancer)

we want to find P(B/A) = ? ( Women having breast cancer given that she has positive mammography)

P(B/A) = =P(B) x P(A/B)

P(A)
Now, we need to find P(A) to find P(B/A)

P(A) = P(B) x P(A/B) + P(B') x P(A/B')

therefore, P(A) = (0.01) x (0.8) + (0.99) x (0.096) = 0.103

P(B/A) = =P(B) x P(A/B)

P(A)

= (0.8) x (0.01)
0.103

P(B/A) = 0.07767
 Let A be parts supplied by A
and A' be parts supplied by B
Let B be parts supplied be non defective
Supplied by A will be A
P(A) = 0.8 ( A supplies four times as many parts as B) & Non defective will be B
P(A') = 0.2 ('') ie. A is depending on B

P(B/A) = (100-5)% = 95% = 0.95 (Non defective parts supplied by A)

P(B/A') = (100-9)% = 91% = 0.91 (Non defective parts supplied by B)

P(B) = P(A) x P(B/A) + P(A') x P(B/A')

P(B) = (0.8) x (0.95) + (0.2) x (0.91)

P(B) = 0.942

Now, we need to find P(A/B) (Part is non defective and provided) by A

P(A/B) = P(A) x (B/A)

P(B)

P(A/B) = (0.8) x (0.95)

0.942

P(A/B) = 0.8068
 Let A be the event that it rains
Let A' be the event that it does not rain
Let B be the event that weatherman has predicted rain
It will rain will be A
P(A) = 5/365 = 0.014 (Rain 5 days in a year)
P(A') = (365-5)/365 = 0.986 ( doesn’t rain in 360 days in a year)
& Weatherman has predicted will be B
P(B/A)= 0.9 (When it rains and weatherman predicts rain) ie. A is depending on B
P(B/A') =0.1 (When it does not rain, the weatherman predicts rain 105 of the time)

We want to know P(A/B) (When prediction is done by weatherman and it rains)

So, now we need to find P(B) FIRST

P(B) = P(A) x P(B/A) + P(A') x P(B/A')

P(B) = (0.014) x (0.9) + (0.986) x (0.1)

P(B) = 0.111

THEREFORE:-

P(A/B) = P(A) x (B/A)

P(B)

P(A/B) = (0.014) x (0.9)

0.111

P(A/B) = 0.114