DR.

Abdur Rasheed
Assistant Professor
Dow University of Health Sciences
Visiting Faculty-IoBM
Introduction to
Probability
Objectives
❖Basic definitions

❖Concepts of probability

❖Rules and properties of probability

❖ Types of events

❖Conditional probability
 Experiment / Trial
Any well define action from which data(observation) can be
obtained is called an experiment or trial
Out come
A single result of an experiment is called an outcome
Example: when a coin is tossed a single result may be Head (H),
represents an outcome
Sample space
The set of all possible outcomes of a statistical experiments is
called the sample space and it is denoted by S
Example:
When a coin is tossed
S= { H, T}
When a die is rolled
S= {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
 Event
A sub set of a sample (Part of a sample space), denoted
by A, B, C, ….
Example: An experiment is conducted to study the smoking
habits in the students. For this purpose a random sample of 3
students is selected at random.
Sample space would be
S= { NNN SNN NSN NNS SNS SSN NSS SSS }

Exactly two students are smoker, may be shown as an event

A = { SNS SSN NSS }
 Union of two events

The union of event ‘A’ and ‘B’, denoted by (A U B) or (A

or B), is defined as ‘either event A or event B or both
occurs’.
 Intersection of two events

The intersection of event ‘A’ and ‘B’ denoted

by (A B ) or (A and B) is defined as ‘both
event A and B occur’.
 Classical Probability

Suppose there are N total outcomes

and out of these we are interested in
m outcomes
m Number of favourable outcomes
P= =
N Total number of outcomes
 Example
A sample of 502 patients showed the distribution
of blood group as follows:

Blood group: O A B AB Total

Frequency 226 206 50 20 502

If a patient is picked up randomly, the probability

that he/she has blood group A:

206
P( A) = = 0.41
502
The probability for O, B and AB are as follows:
226
P (O ) = = 0.45
502
50
P( B) = = 0.10
502
20
P ( AB ) = = 0.04
502

P(O) + P(A) + P(B) + P(AB) = 1

0.45+ 0.41 + 0.10 + 0.04 = 1

Tossing a coin There are two
possibilities

Head (H) Tail (T)

 Rolling a dice
There are six possibilities

1 2 3 4 5 6
 Events

Mutually Not mutually

Complementary Equally likely
exclusive exclusive
event event
event event
 Complementary event

For each event ‘A’, there corresponds another event

defined by ‘A does not occur’. This is called
complementary of A and denoted by A .
Consider previous example :
Sample space= S = { NNN SNN NSN NNS SNS SSN NSS SSS }
Exactly two students are smoker, may be shown as an event

A = { SNS SSN NSS }

Not exactly two students are smoker may be shown as an
complement of event A and denoted by A
A = { NNN SNN NSN NNS SSS }
 Complementary event

Consider previous example :

Sample space= S = { NNN SNN NSN NNS SNS SSN NSS SSS }
Exactly one students are smoker, may be shown as an event A

What is complementary event of event A ?

 Equally likely events

If each event of an experiment has an equal chance

to be selected, then the events are equally likely.
If A1, A2, A3, …., An denote n events of an experiment than
these events are called equally likely events if
P(A1)=P(A2)=P(A3)= , . . ., = P(An)
Example : A die is rolled , the sample space is
S= { 1 2 3 4 5 6 }
Now let A1 shows an event that 1 occur, A2 shows that 2 occur, etc.,
Events: A1= {1} , A2= { 2 }, A3= {3}, A4= {4}, A5= {5}, A6= {6}
Now P(A1) = 1/ 6 , P(A2) = 1/ 6 , P(A3) = 1/ 6 , P(A4) = 1/ 6
P(A5) = 1/ 6 , P(A6) = 1/ 6

P(A1)=P(A2)=P(A3)= P(A4)= P(A5)= P(A6)

 Mutually exclusive

Two events are said to be mutually exclusive, if they

can not occur together.
Example : A die is rolled , the sample space is
S= { 1 2 3 4 5 6 }
Now let A shows an event that 1 occur, B shows that 2 occur
Events: A= {1} and B= { 2 }
When a die is rolled once then if 1 is occurred then 2 can’t
occur and if 2 is occurred then 1 can’t occur
Now these two events A and B are mutually exclusive events
There is no common section between these two events A and B or A B =0
 Not Mutually exclusive

Two events are said to be not mutually exclusive, if

there is possibility that they can occur together.
Example :A class contain 16 boys and 10 girls and half of the
boys and half of the girls are obesed.
Let we make two events A and B
A= { a student is a boy}
B= { a student is obese}
There is a possibility that a selected student which is a boy can be obesed

There exist common section between these two events A and B or A B ≠0

 BASIC PROPERTIES OF PROBABILITY

The probability of an event is always between 0 to 1.

0  P( E )  1
The probability of an event that can not occur is zero

If l1, l2, …, lm are mutually exclusive events comprising the sample

space then
P(l1) + P(l2) + …. + P(lm) = 1.
 RULES OF PROBABILITY

1) P(Ā) = 1 – P(A)

2) If event A and event B are mutually exclusive,

then
P (A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
3) If A1, A2, …, An are mutually exclusive and
exhaustive, then
P (A1 or A2 or …. or An)
P(A1) + P( A2) + … + P(An) = 1
4) If event A and event B are not mutually exclusive,
then
P (A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A B )
 Example
The client company data from the Decision Dilemma reveal that
155 employees worked one of four types of positions. Shown
here contingency table.
Positions A1 A2
Female
Male
Managerial (B1 8 3 11

Professional B2 31 13 44

Technical B3 52 17 69

Clerical B4 9 22 31

100 55 155
 Positions A1 A2
Female
Male
Managerial (B1) 8 3 11

Professional (B2) 31 13 44

Technical (B3) 52 17 69

Clerical (B4) 9 22 31

100 55 155

Pr (Male employee) = 100/155= 0.645

Pr (Female employee) = 55/155= 0.354
Pr (Managerial employee) = 11/155= 0.070
Pr (Professional employee) = 44/155= 0.283
Pr (Technical employee) = 69/155= 0.445
Pr (Clecrial employee) = 31/155= 0.200
 Positions A1 A2
Female
Male
Managerial (B1) 8 3 11

Professional (B2) 31 13 44

Technical (B3) 52 17 69

Clerical (B4) 9 22 31

100 55 155

P(employee is male and managerial) = P (B1 and A1) = P (B1 ∩A1)= 8/155= 0.051

P(employee is female and clerical) = P (A2 and B4) = P (A2∩ B4)= 22/155= 0.141
 Positions A1 A2
Female
Male
Managerial (B1) 8 3 11

Professional (B2) 31 13 44

Technical (B3) 52 17 69

Clerical (B4) 9 22 31

100 55 155

P(employee is female or clerical) = P (A2 or B4) = P (A2∪ B4) = ?

P (A2 or B4) = P (A2∪ B4) = P (A2) + P (B4) - P (A2∩B4)

P (A2 or B4) = P (A2∪ B4) = (55/ 155) + (31/ 155) - (22/155)

P (A2 or B4) = P (A2∪ B4) = 0.354 + 0.200 – 0.141 = 0.413

Given that P(A)= 0.10, P(B)= 0.12, P(C) = 0.21, P(A ∩ C)= 0.05
and P (B ∩ C) = 0.03

Calculate
1. P(A ∪ C) =
2. P (B ∪ C) =
3. If A and B are mutually exclusive, P(A ∪ B)
According to Nielson Media Research, approximately 68% of all U.S.
households with television have cable. Seventy-five percent of all
U.S. households with television have two or more TV sets. Suppose
56% of all U.S. households with television have cable TV and two
more TV sets. A U.S. household with television is randomly selected.

1. What is probability that the household has cable TV or two or

more TV sets?

2. What is probability that the household has cable TV or two or

more TV sets but not both?

3. What is probability that the household has neither cable TV nor

two or more TV sets?
A= all U.S. households with television have cable

B= all U.S. households with television have two or more TV sets

P (A)= 0.68
P (B)= 0.75
P (A ∩ B)= 0.56
1. What is probability that the household has cable
TV or two or more TV sets? P(A ∪ B) = ?
P(A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) - P (A ∩ B)
P(A ∪ B) = 0.68 + 0.75 - 0.56 = 0.87
The probability of the household has cable TV or two or
more TV sets is 0.87
A= all U.S. households with television have cable
B= all U.S. households with television have two or more TV sets
P (A)= 0.68
P (B)= 0.75
P (A ∩ B)= 0.56
2. What is probability that the household has cable TV
or two or more TV sets but not both?
Event A or
P(A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) - P (A ∩ B) event B or both
events
Here we are interested in Event A or event B but not both
= P (A) + P (B) - P (A ∩ B) - P (A ∩ B)
= 0.68 + 0.75 - 0.56 – 0.56 = 0.31
The probability of the household has cable TV or two or
more TV sets but not both is 0.31
A= all U.S. households with television have cable
B= all U.S. households with television have two or more TV sets
P (A)= 0.68
P (B)= 0.75
P (A ∩ B)= 0.56
3. What is probability that the household has neither cable TV
nor two or more TV sets?
ഥ 0.32
P (A)=
ഥ)= 0.25
P (B
ഥ∩B
P (A ഥ)= 0.44
ഥ∪ B
P(A ഥ ) + P (B
ഥ ) = P (A ഥ∩ B
ഥ ) - P (A ഥ)
P(A ∪ B) = 0.32 + 0.25 - 0.44 = 0.13
The probability of the household has neither cable TV nor
two or more TV sets is 0.13
 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
In many situation, we try to find the probability of an event
given that another event has occurred.
Due to the pre-condition, the probability alter.
E.g., if a person consumes chewing tobacco , he is in more risk
of having oral cancer than the person who does not consumes.
Here chances of cancer depend on chewing.

When the probability of an event is changed because

another event or condition has already occurred, then
it is referred as conditional probability.

P ( A and B)
P ( A / B) =
P ( B)
 Given Prob.
of
Positions A1 A2
Prob. ?
Female
Male
Managerial (B1) 8 3 11

Professional (B2) 31 13 44

Technical (B3) 52 17 69

Clerical (B4) 9 22 39

100 55 155
What is the probability that a employee is managerial given that
individual is female? P(Managerial/female) = ?

P(Managerial/female) = P (B1 / A2)= P (B1∩A2) / P(A2)

P(Managerial/female) = P (B1 / A2)= (3/155) / (55/155) = 0.055
 Example 2
Following table shows the probability distributions for the marital
status of U.S adults by sex
M1 M2 M3 M4
Total
Single Married Widowed Divorced

Male S1 0.116 0.139 0.012 0.028 0.475

Female S2 0.093 0.325 0.066 0.041 0.525
Total 0.209 0.644 0.078 0.069 1.00
Table shows that probability of selected adult is male P(S1)= 0.475 and
female P(S2)= 0.525 etc.,
Now probability that selected adult is female given that she is
divorced
P( S2 / M4) = P (S2 and M4) / P(M4) = 0.041 / 0.069 = 0.594
Question
What is the probability that the selected adult is male given that
he is widowed ?
 STATISTICAL INDEPENDENCE
The probability of the occupance of an event sometimes
depends on whether or not another event occurs.

In general, it is independent that a person is going to

purchase milk given that he already bought a shoe.
Similarly it is dependent that a person is going to
purchase shoes given that he has to pay for them.

Suppose A and B are two events in an experiments. If A

occurs firstly and B occurs secondly, if the probability of
second event B changes due to the occurrence of first
event then these events are called dependent events
otherwise independent.
If event A and B are statistically independent
P(A and B) = P(A) P(B)

And If event A and B are statistically dependent

P(A and B) ≠ P(A) P(B)
 Recall the previous example 2
Events: M1 M2 M3 M4
Total
S1= adult is male Single
Married
Widowed Divorced

M4= adult is divorced

Male S1 0.116 0.139 0.012 0.028 0.475
Female S2 0.093 0.325 0.066 0.041 0.525
Total 0.209 0.644 0.078 0.069 1.00

We have to check either these events are independent or not

Condition for independence
P(S1 and M4) = P(S1) * P(M4)
P(S1 and M4) = 0.028 P(S1)= 0.475 P(M4)= 0.069

P(S1) * P(M4) = 0.475 * 0.069 = 0.032775

Since P(S1 and M4) ≠ P(S1) * P(M4)

Hence events S1 and M4 are not independent

 Question
M1 M2 M3 M4
Total
Events: Single
Married
Widowed Divorced

S2= adult is female

Male S1 0.116 0.139 0.012 0.028 0.475
M3= adult is widowed
Female S2 0.093 0.325 0.066 0.041 0.525
Total 0.209 0.644 0.078 0.069 1.00

Check weather these two events S2 and M3 are

independent or not?
 Questions

A coin is thrown 3 times .what is the probability that at least one head is
obtained?

Sol: Sample space = [HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, TTH, THT, HTT, TTT]
Total number of ways = 8. Fav. Cases = 7

P (A) = 7/8
 Questions
A die is rolled, and a coin is tossed, find the probability that the die shows an odd
number, and the coin shows a head.

Let H be the head and T be the tail of the coin. The sample space S of the
experiment described in question 5 is as follows

S = { (1,H),(2,H),(3,H),(4,H),(5,H),(6,H)
(1,T),(2,T),(3,T),(4,T),(5,T),(6,T)}

Let E be the event "the die shows an odd number, and the coin shows a head".
Event E may be described as follows

E={(1,H),(3,H),(5,H)}

The probability P(E) is given by

P(E) = 3 / 12 = 1 / 4
 Questions

Consider the experiment of rolling a dice. Find the probability of

getting an even number or a number that is multiple of three?

Consider the experiment of rolling two dices at once. Find the

probability of getting sum of two faces as odd.

What is the probability of getting a sum of 7 when two dice are

thrown?

Consider the experiment of rolling two dices at once. Find the

probability of getting two different numbers.
Thank you