Apollo Hospitals

GROUP - 10

AAKASH KUMAR B2022063

AVISH RAI B2022073
MANIK KAPOOR B2022085
PRIYANKA MADAN B2022093
SHREYANSH CHOUDHARY B2022109
VEDANT TOSARIA B2022123
Apollo serves 120 food items from its kitchen. Do you
think that Apollo should develop forecasting models for
all 120 items?

▪ As per the data obtained Apollo should not develop models for 120
items but instead forecasting should be done for high value and high
consumption items.
▪ Taking example of complimentary dishes like Idli and Sambar we
observe that they are low consumption unlike Idli which has high
consumption.

▪ Due to the absence of accurate forecasting, Apollo registered a loss

of 4% on their total cost due to wastage of food material.
▪ On a regular basis, the hospital records 20% excess production of
food. Furthermore on certain days they recorded 50-60% of wastage
which impacts efficiency.
Explore the data provided in the supplement document.
What inferences can be obtained from the data?

▪ Observing the complementary dishes we notice similar values of

mean, median and mode for dishes like chutney and sambar.
▪ After observing values of quantity prepared and we found that dosa
is exceeding by 121% followed by Idli and Sambar(11% each).
▪ This implies that maximum wastage for item is Dosa followed by idli.
North Indian Breakfast, omlette, continental breakfast, chutney and
sambar.
▪ Therefore maximum scope of Improvement lies in Dosa and Idli.

▪ The plot between consumption vs occupant we notice 190 units data

is homogenous and after that data becomes heteroscedastic
 Chart Title
BKFST_OCCUP Idly Dosa Chutney
Sambar Continental B/F North Indian B/F Omellette

300

250

200

150

100

50

0
9/8/2012 9/28/2012 10/18/2012 11/7/2012 11/27/2012 12/17/2012 1/6/2013 1/26/2013 2/15/2013
Develop an appropriate forecasting model for
each of the chosen food item.

▪ Three forecasting models have been developed using

▪ a) 2 Period Moving Average Method
▪ b) 5 Period Moving Average Method
▪ c) Exponential Smoothening
Discuss the results of the models developed in previous
question and its appropriateness for use by Apollo Hospitals.

To compare the appropriateness of the three models designed for

forecasting errors have been computed.
Errors calculated are: -
▪ a) Root Mean Square Error- RMSE
▪ b) Mean Absolute Error - MAE
▪ c) Mean Square Error - MSE
▪ d) Mean Absolute Percentage Error - MAPE
 RESULTS :

2 POINT MOVING AVERAGE METHOD

DOSA IDLI CHUTNEY SAMBHAR CONTINENTAL OMLETTE
MAD 6.79 4.43 8.58 8.94 4.12 2.37
MSE 107.59 39.18 116.71 127.08 34.59 12.67
RMSE 10.37 6.26 10.80 11.27 5.88 3.56
MAPE 50% 8% 7% 7% 10% 21%

3 POINT MOVING AVERAGE METHOD

DOSA IDLI CHUTNEY SAMBHAR CONTINENTAL OMLETTE
MAD 7.01 4.60 8.36 8.75 4.51 2.59
MSE 110.84 39.05 110.03 127.56 37.21 13.61
RMSE 10.53 6.25 10.49 11.29 6.10 3.69
MAPE 52% 8% 6% 7% 11% 23%
 RESULTS :

EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHENING
DOSA IDLI CHUTNEY SAMBHAR CONTINENTAL OMLETTE
MAD 6.76 4.701754 8.16 8.36 4.03 2.26
MSE 107.59 49.58333 104.81 115.25 30.09 11.48
RMSE 10.37 7.041543 10.24 10.74 5.49 3.39
MAPE 24% 8% 6% 6% 10% 20%

Exponential smoothening (with smoothening factor as 1 provides the least errors and is the best suited model for
Apollo to adopt for forecasting.
▪ From the 3 models that we have build we
can clearly analyse that the Exponential
Smoothening Method is the most reliable
method as it has least MAPE for each CONCLUSION
item as compared to the other two
methods.
▪ Digital transformation is required in the
method of collection and storage of data
▪ Many dishes were observed for high
wastage, Dosa followed by Idli, North
Indian breakfast and so on.
▪ Exponential smoothening proves to be the
best forecasting model as it provides least
error.
THANK YOU!