Seventh WMO International Workshop on Monsoon (IWM-7)

22-26 March, 2022, IMD, MoES, New Delhi, India

Role of Machine Learning for Indian

Monsoon Prediction, 84
Yajnaseni Dash, Research Scholar
Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi

Presented by: Yajnaseni Dash

yajnasenidash@gmail.com
 Objectives of the paper :
 To gain insight into various machine learning (ML) techniques.
 To provide an overview of the applicability of ML techniques for Indian
monsoon rainfall prediction.

1
 Data, Methodology, Results & Summary
Data: Based upon the requirement, Data pre-processing: Raw data can be processed before ML application e.g. data
researchers can use the datasets of their normalization. Data is divided into training and testing phases.
choice, e.g. Indian monsoon rainfall data Development of ML Models: Presently, ML techniques are gaining popularity in other
available at Indian Meteorological Department contexts & lack of their wide application from a climate prediction perspective is a need of
(IMD) and the Indian Institute of Tropical concern. The previous studies as shown in following table indicate their potential
Meteorology (IITM), Pune. applicability in Indian monsoon rainfall prediction .

Taxonomy of machine learning models Relevant previous studies in our laboratory (Dash et al.)
Machine Year Data & ML techniques Remarks
Learnin Data: IITM time series data for Indian Summer a. Better predictor is the combination of SST &
2019
g Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) SLP.
Predictors: Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Sea b. Better techniques is ROS-RVFL
Level Pressure (SLP)
Techniques: Single Layer Feed Forward Neural
Semi- Network (SLFN), Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) &
Supervised Unsupervised Supervised Reinforcement Deep
Learning Learning Learning Learning Regularized Online Sequential-Random Vector
Learning
Functional Link (ROS-RVFL)
2019 Data: IITM time series data for Kerala summer For Kerala SMR, SVR Optimal (ensemble method)
Classification
monsoon rainfall (SMR) was better among 10 ε-SVR models.
Clustering
(NB, KNN, ANN, (K-means, Self-training
Model-Free Discriminative Techniques: ε-Support Vector Regression (ε-SVR)
SVM, DT, RF) RL (Policy (MLP, CNN,
Models
Regression
DBSCAN,
GM, Co-training
Optimization, RNN) 2018 Data: IITM time series data for Kerala SMR & ELM technique has shown better performance and
Q-Learning)
(LR, ANNR,
Hierarchical, Models
Model-
Generative
(GAN, AE, SOM,
northeast monsoon rainfall (NEMR) for both SMR and NEMR for Kerala. The ELM
SVR, DTR, RR) Semi-
Agglomerativ
e) Supervised
Based DBN, RBM) Techniques: K-Nearest Neighbor, SLFN & ELM architecture (8-15-1) performs better.
RL (Learn the Hybrid
Dimensiona SVMs (TSVM)
Generative
model, Given (CNN+LSTM, 2018 Data: IITM time series data for NEMR and SST PCA has substantially improved the performance
lity
Reduction Methods
the model) GAN+CNN, anomaly data from Hadley Centre SST data set of ML techniques & among them PC-ELM has
AE+SVM)
(LDA, PCA, (EM)
Graph based
(HadSST3) better performance.
PCR, SVD,
ICA) models Techniques: LR, ANN, ELM, PC-LR, PC-NN, PC-ELM
2018 Data: IITM rainfall time series for ISMR In comparison with Sahai et al. (2000) and Singh
Techniques: SLFN, Random Vector Functional Link & Borah (2013) studies, this work has found better
(RVFL) & ROS-RVFL accuracy using ROS-RVFL technique.
Past Data Machine 2017 Data: IITM time series data for Kerala SMR For Kerala SMR prediction, ELM is more accurate.
Monsoon Pre- Learning Techniques: SLFN & ELM
Rainfall processing Models 2017 Data: IITM time series data for NEMR Better technique is ELM with radbas activation
Data for Techniques Predictors: SST & SLP function. SST is a good predictor than SLP.
Training Techniques: ANN & ELM

Summary: ML models are used for forecasting climate phenomena, extreme

New Predictive
Predicted
Model
weather events, downscaling of climate variables, data assimilation, detecting
Model Monsoon
Results Rainfall Data climate regions, study of climate predictors & their association with Indian
for Testing monsoon, etc.
Still, exploration of potential of ML techniques for climate science is in
Mechanism of ML based predictive model preliminary stage, for which there is a dire need for extensive research.
Seventh WMO International Workshop on Monsoon (IWM-7), 22-26 March, 2022, IMD, MoES, New Delhi, India 2