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PROBABILITAS 1
S1_Teknik Sipil UNS
C ONT E NT S 06
Duration Curve
Line diagram or bar chart
The occurrences of a discrete
variable can be classified on a line
diagram or bar chart. In this type of
graph, the horizontal axis gives the
values of the discrete variable and
Number of occurrences
the occurrences are represented by
the heights of vertical lines. The
horizontal spread of these lines and
their relative heights indicate the
variability and other characteristics
of the data.
A frequency polygon is a useful diagnostic tool to determine the distribution of a variable. It can be drawn by
joining the midpoints of the tops of the rectangles of a histogram after extending the diagram by one class on both
sides. We assume that equal class widths are used. If the ordinates of a histogram are divided by the total number
of observations, then a relative frequency histogram is obtained. Thus, the ordinates for each class denote the
probabilities bounded by 0 and 1, by which we simply mean the chances of occurrence. The resulting diagram is
called the relative frequency polygon.
Frequency polygon
As the number of observations becomes large, the class widths theoretically tend to decrease and, in the limiting
case of an infinite sample, a relative frequency polygon becomes a frequency curve. This is in fact a probability
curve, which represents a mathematical probability density function, abbreviated as pdf, of the population.
Cumulative relative frequency diagram
If a cumulative sum is taken of the relative frequencies step
by step from the smallest class to the largest, then the line
joining the ordinates (cumulative relative frequencies) at
the ends of the class boundaries forms a cumulative
relative frequency or probability diagram.
On the vertical axis of the graph, this line gives the
probabilities of non exceedance of values shown on the
horizontal axis. In practice, this plot is made by utilizing
and displaying every item of data distinctly, without the
necessity of proceeding via a histogram and the restrictive
categories that it entails. For this purpose, one may simply
determine (e.g., from the ranked data of Table 1.1.3) the
number of observations less than or equal to each value
and divide these numbers by the total number of
observations. This procedure is adopted here.5
Cumulative relative frequency diagram
Thus, the probability diagram, as represented by the
cumulative relative frequency diagram, becomes an
important practical tool. This diagram yields the
median and other quartiles directly. Also, one can
find the 9 values that divide the total frequency into 10
0.5 equal parts called deciles and the so-called percentiles,
where the pth percentile is the value that is greater
than p percent of the observations. In general, it is
possible to obtain the (n − 1) values that divide the
total frequency into n equal parts called the quantiles.
Median Hence a cumulative frequency polygon is also called a
quantile or Q-plot; a Q-plot though has quantiles on
the vertical axis unlike a cumulative frequency
diagram.
Cumulative relative frequency diagram
The deciles and percentiles can be abstracted. By convention
a vertical probability or proportionality scale is used rather
0.9
than one giving percentages (except in duration curves,
discussed shortly). The 90th percentile, for instance, is ≤ 51
N/mm2 approximately.
If the sample size increases indefinitely, the cumulative
relative frequency diagram will become a distribution curve
in the limit. This represents the population by means of a
(mathematical) distribution function, usually called a
51 cumulative distribution function, abbreviated to cdf, just as a
relative frequency polygon leads to a probability density
function
For the assessment of water resources and for associated design and
Duration curves planning purposes, engineers find it useful to draw duration curves.
When dealing with flows in rivers, this type of graph is known as a flow
duration curve. It is in effect a cumulative frequency diagram with
specific time scales. The vertical axis can represent, for example, the
percentage of the time a flow is exceeded; and in addition, the number
of days per year or season during which the flow is exceeded (or not)
may be given. The volume of flow per day is given on the horizontal
axis. For some purposes, the vertical and horizontal axes are
interchanged as in a Q-plot. One example of a practical use is the scaled
area enclosed by the curve, a horizontal line representing 100% of the
time, and a vertical line drawn at a minimum value of flow, which is
desirable to be maintained in the river. This area represents the
estimated supplementary volume of water that should be diverted to the
river on an annual basis to meet such an objective
TERIMAKASIH