Materials & Metalurgi

Probability of Failure
 Probability of Failure
• The probability analysis in a RBI program is performed to estimate the
probability of a specific adverse consequence resulting from a loss of
containment that occurs due to a deterioration mechanism(s).
• The probability that a specific consequence will occur is the product
of the probability of failure (PoF) and the probability of the scenario
under consideration assuming that the failure has occurred. This
section provides guidance only on determining the PoF.
• Further, it should address the situation where equipment is susceptible
to multiple deterioration mechanisms (e.g., thinning and creep). The
analysis should be credible, repeatable and well documented.

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 Assessing Probability of Failure
• It should be noted that deterioration mechanisms are not the only causes of loss
of containment. Other causes of loss of containment could include but are not
limited to:
• Seismic activity.
• Weather extremes.
• Overpressure due to pressure relief device failure.
• Operator error.
• Inadvertent substitution of materials of construction.
• Design error.
• Sabotage.
• These and other causes of loss of containment may have an impact on the
probability of failure and may be included in the probability of failure analysis.

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 Types of probability analysis
• Qualitative analysis
• Quantitative analysis

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 Qualitative Probability of Failure Analysis
• A qualitative method involves identification of the units, systems
or equipment, the materials of construction and the corrosive
components of the processes.
• On the basis of knowledge of the operating history, future
inspection and maintenance plans and possible materials
deterioration, probability of failure can be assessed separately for
each unit, system, equipment grouping or individual equipment
item.
• Engineering judgment is the basis for this assessment (such as
high, medium or low)

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 Quantitative Probability of Failure
Analysis
• There are several approaches to a quantitative probability
analysis. One example is to take a probabilistic approach
where specific failure data or expert solicitations are used to
calculate a probability of failure.
• These failure data may be obtained on the specific
equipment item in question or on similar equipment items.

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 • Another approach is used when inaccurate or insufficient failure
data exists on the specific item of interest. In this case, general
industry, company or manufacturer failure data are used
• Such modifications to general values may be made for each
equipment item to account for the potential deterioration that
may occur in the particular service and the type and
effectiveness of inspection and/or monitoring performed.
• Knowledgeable personnel should make these modifications on a
case-by-case basis.

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 Determination of probability of failure
• Regardless of whether a more qualitative or a quantitative
analysis is used, the probability of failure is determined by
two main considerations:
• Deterioration mechanisms and rates of the equipment item's
material of construction, resulting from its operating environment
(internal and external).
• Effectiveness of the inspection program to identify and monitor
the deterioration mechanisms so that the equipment can be
repaired or replaced prior to failure.

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 Materials & Metalurgi

Consequences of Failure

Modul: RBI training TUK - MATERIAL

 Consequences of Failure

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 Consequences of Failure

• Consequences of Failure (Qualitative)

>Standby Availabilitv
> Financial Loss ·
> location within Plant

• Consequences of Failure (Semi-Qualitative)

> Fluid Hazard
>Fluid Hazard - lnv¢ntory
> Fluid Hazard - Pressure
> Environmental
> Population Hazard

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 Standby Consequence

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 Financial Consequence

The Financial Rating is assigned to each item by the User, based on his knowledge or
the plant and time to repair and return to production
Rating 1 = HIGH Coasequences
Failure would result in loss greater than 7 days production

Rating 2 = MEDIUM Consequences

Failure would result in an loss between 1 and 7 days production

Rating 3 = LOW Consequences

Failure would result in a loss than 1 day production

*The financial Values are user configured

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 Location Consequence -
Offshore

The location rating is assigned to each item by the user, based on his knowledge of the plant.

Rating 1 = HIGH Consequences

Equipment is located in a closed module

Rating 2 = MEDIUM Consequences

Equipment is located in an open module

Rating 3 = LOW Consequences

Equipment is located on an open deck or under deck

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 Location Consequence
- Onshore
The wording of the location rules will be different when applied to onshore
installations.

 Rating 1 = Inside and enclosure such as a pump house or compressor house

proximity to operating personnel or to the public
.
 Rating 2 = General plant area or tank farm adjacent to plant.

 Rating 3 = inaccessible or infrequently visited, such as a sump or pit or remote

tank farm or in areas where access is coatrolled by permit
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 Fluid Hazard

The Fluid Rating is a calculated value based on:

 Rating 1 = HIGH Consequence

Hazard fluids such as flammable liquids above their atmospheric boiling points and toxic
fluids

 Rating 2 = MEDIUM Consequence

Hydrocarbons and fluids neither inert or hazardous

 Rating 3 = LOW Consequence

Inert fluids operating at less than 60 C
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For OSHA Regulation, hazardous fluids are defined in OSHA 1910.11 Appendix A.

The physical properties of these fluids are stored together with their chemical name
and are used in comparison with the Operating Pressure and Temperatures of the
particular stream or vessel.

Other national rules (UK; Australia/New Zealand; Europe; Gulf States) are
incorporated In the RBI System and are selected during the Configuration >
Consequences.

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 Fluid Hazard – Inventory

The inventory Rating is a calculated value based on the fluid quantities

specified OSHA 1910 11 Appendix A:

 Rating 1 = HIGH Consequence

Fluid volume greater than OSHA 1910.119 quantity

 Rating 2 = MEDIUM Consequence

Fluid volume less than OSHA 1910.119 quantity

 Rating 3 = LOW Consequence

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 When using the USA Consequence Rules, reference is made to
OSHA 1910, 11 Appendix A.

This table contains a list of hazardous materials together with

the threshold quantity (in pounds) which is the amount
necessary to be covered by this standard.

The table is compared to the inventory values entered in the RBI

System database for either the System or the individual item of
equipment

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 Fluid Hazard – Pressure

The Pressure Rating is a calculated value based on the stored fluid energy from
operating pressure

 Rating 1 = HIGH Consequence

Release of liquid pollutans to the environment in excess of environment
discharge limits

 Rating 2 = MEDIUM Consequence

Releasae pollutant of liquid pollutants to the environment in quantities
less than environment discharge limits or release of pollutant vapors

 Rating 3 = LOW Consequence

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 Environmental

The Environmental Rating is calculated value based on the release of

pollutants to the environment

 Rating 1 = HIGH Consequence

Release of liquid pollutants to the environment in excess of
environmental discharge limits

 Rating 2 = MEDIUM Consequence

Has the potential to cause serious injury onsite

 Rating 3 = LOW Consequence

Would not cause serious injury

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 Population Hazard
The Population Rating is a calculated value based on potential for harm to personnel

 Rating 1 = HIGH Consequence

Has the potential to cause serious injury offsite

 Rating 2 = MEDIUM Consequence

Has the potential to cause serious injury offsite

 Rating 3 = LOW Consequence

Would not cause serious injury

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 The Population Consequence is a computed value and is derived from the
characteristics of the contained fluid.

For this to work property, it is essential that the correct chemical

breakdown has been specified when defining the contained fluid.

The data tables associated with this are provided and maintained by Three
Rivers Systems. Updates will be issued as part of the Maintenance
Agreement.

You may however specify your own fluids by using the Engineering>Fluid
Chemical Properties function.
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 Summary of Consequence

 Eight Consequence of Failure are used. Three are qualitative and

five are semi- qualitative
The overall Consequence is the arithmetic mean of all
Concequence excluding Financial
Fianancial Consequance may only elevate tbe Overall
Concequence
The Combination of Consequence of Failure and Probability of
Failure are used to derive the OPERATIONAL CRITICALITY

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 The Standby, Financial and location Consequences must be assigned by the User.
All other Consequences are calculated values.
The Criticality Transformation matrix is shown below:

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