Probability and Random

Processes
Lecture no. (2)

Dr Sherif Rabia
Department of Engineering Mathematics and Physics,
Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University
sherif.rabia@gmail.com
sherif.rabia@alexu.edu.eg
 Outline
1.3 Probability computation
– Basics
– Counting techniques
1.4 Conditional probability
– Notion and definition
– Multiplication rule

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 1.3 Probability computation

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 Basics
S = {1, 2, . . ., 6}
S = {1, 2, . . ., N}
P(1) = P(2) = . . . = 1/6
Uniform traffic
P(Even) = 3/6
P(1) = P(2) = . . . P(N) = 1/N
P(Outlet 1 not selected) = (N – 1)/N

If S is equi-probable, then
P(A) = NA/NS
Example 2.1
Let a die be thrown twice. Find the probability of getting a sum greater
than 10
Example 2.2 (Non equi-probable sample space)
A die is weighted such that the probability of a number is proportional to
its value. If the die is thrown once, what is the probability of getting
(a) an odd number?
(b) a number less than 3?
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 Counting methods
1 6
P(Different faces)? ... P(Different faces)?

B
Fundamental principle of counting
In how many ways can one goes from A to B? A
C
Example 2.3
A three-digit number is constructed at random from {2, 3, 5, 8, 9}.
What is the probability that it is
(a) even? (b) divisible by five? Add 0

Example 2.4
A password consists of 6 letters. or 6 5
(a) How many passwords are there? letters
(b) What is the probability that a password does not contain w ?
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 Permutation and combination
A, B, C In how many ways, can we select two items?

Permutation Combination
{AB, BA, AC, CA, BC, CB} {AB, AC, BC}

n! n n!
(n)r    
(n  r )!  r  r! (n  r )!

Example 2.5
A student is to answer 8 out of 10 questions in an exam.
(a) How many choices does he have?
(b) Repeat (a) if he must answer the first 2 questions?

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 Examples
Example 2.6 1 ... 10

Three different components are to be put on a board having 10 slots.

How many choices does we have?
Similar
?components
Example 2.7
A binary code consists of 10 bits. 1110111011

How many codes contain exactly TWO zeros?

At least
?two zeros
Example 2.8
A lot of 15 resistors contains 3 defective ones. Three resistors are
chosen at random. What is the probability that
(a) none is defective?
(b) only one is defective?
At least one
?is defective
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 1.4 Conditional probability

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 What is conditional probability
P(A given B)  P(A | B)
S1 Good S2 S1
195 96 99 G
S2 Defective
5 4 1 D
P(Defective) = ? 200 100 100
P(Defective | S1) = ?

Example 2.9
A die is thrown once. If the appearing number is even, what is the
probability it is greater than 3?

Example 2.10
A die is thrown twice. If a six appears what is the probability of getting a
sum greater than 8?
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 Conditional probability definition
P( A  B)
P( A | B) 
P(B)

Example 2.11
Given P(A) = 0.3, P(B) = 0.6, P(A  B) = 0.1
FindP(A | B), P(B | A), P(A | Bc)

Example 2.12
The probability that a scheduled flight departs on time is
0.95, arrives on time is 0.85, and departs and arrives on
time is 0.80.
If the fleight departed on time, what is the probability that it
arrives on time?
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 Multiplication rule
P( A  B) P(A  B) = P(B) P(A | B)
P( A | B) 
P(B) = P(A) P(B | A)
Example 2.13
A box contains 5 black balls
and 5 red balls. A ball is R
4/10
selected at random and 4R
is replaced with a ball of R
1/2 6B
the other color. Then a 6/10 B
second ball is selected 5R
at random. 5B 6/10 R
What is the probability that 1/2 6R
B
the two balls are red? 4B
4/10
B

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 Homework
Sections covered
1.8 (Counting methods)

Problems
1.8.1, 1.8.2, 1.8.4

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