SECTION 5.

POISSON PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTIONS
POISSON DISTRUBUTION

Useful for calculating the

probability that a certain
number of events will occur
over a specific period of
time.
 DEFINITION
 A POISSON DISTRIBUTION is a discrete
probability distribution that applies to
occurrences of some event over a specified
interval.
 The random variable x is the number of
occurrences of the event in an interval. The
interval can be time, distance, area, volume, or
some similar unit.
 FORMULA
 The probability of the event occurring x times
over an interval is given by the formula

x −μ
μ e
P ( x )=
x!
 REQUIREMENTS
 e is a constant or the Euler's number = 2.718

µ is the mean number of outcomes of the event
over the intervals
 The random variable x is the number of
occurrences of an event over some interval.
 The occurrences must be random.
 The occurrences must be independent.
 The occurrences must be uniformly distributed
over the interval being used.
 PARAMETERS

 The mean is µ

 The standard deviation is σ = √μ

 PARAMETERS
 The Poisson Distribution is sometimes used to
approximate the binomial distribution when n is
large and p is small.
 Requirements
 n ≥ 100
 np ≤ 10
 Mean for Poisson Distribution as an
approximation to the Binomial is µ = np
 BINOMIAL vs POISSON
 A particular binomial distribution is determined
by the sample size n and the probability p, but a
Poisson distribution is determined only by the
mean.
 In a binomial distribution, the possible vales of
the random variable x are 0, 1, …, n but a
Poisson distribution has possible x values of 0,
1, 2, … with no upper limit.
 EXAMPLE
 Various sources provide different earthquake
data, but assume that for a recent 41 year
period in the US, there were 268 earthquakes
measured at 6.0 or higher on the Richter scale.

 Find the mean number of earthquakes per year.

 EXAMPLE

Various sources provide different earthquake
data, but assume that for a recent 41 year
period in the US, there were 268 earthquakes
measured at 6.0 or higher on the Richter scale.


Find the mean number of earthquakes per year.


Mean = 284 / 41 = 6.53658537
 EXAMPLE
 Find the probability that in a given year, there is
exactly 1 earthquake in the US that measures
6.0 or higher on the Richter scale.
 EXAMPLE
 Find the probability that in a given year, there is
exactly 1 earthquake in the US that measures
6.0 or higher on the Richter scale.
1 −6.5366
6.5366 ∗2.71
 P(x=1) =
1!

 P(x=1) = 0.009665
 EXAMPLE
 Find the probability that in a given year, there is
at least 1 earthquake in the US that measures
6.0 or higher on the Richter scale.
 EXAMPLE

Find the probability that in a given year, there is
at least 1 earthquake in the US that measures
6.0 or higher on the Richter scale.


P(at least 1) = 1 - P(0)

0 −6.5366
6.5366 ∗2.71

P(at least 1) = 1 - 0!


P(at least) = 0.99855
 EXAMPLE
 Is It unlikely to have a year without any
earthquakes that measure 6.0 or higher on the
Richter scale? Why or why not?
 EXAMPLE
 Is It unlikely to have a year without any
earthquakes that measure 6.0 or higher on the
Richter scale? Why or why not?

 Yes, it is very unlikely to have a year without

any earthquakes The probability of having no
earthquakes is 0.001449, which is less than
0.05.
 EXAMPLE B
 Neuroblastoma, a rare form of malignant tumor,
occurs in 11 children in a million, so its
probability is 0.000011. Four cases of
neuroblastoma occurred in Oak Park, Illinois,
which had 12,429 children.
 Assuming that neuroblastoma occurs as usual,
find the mean number of cases in groups of
12,429 children.
 EXAMPLE B

Neuroblastoma, a rare form of malignant tumor,
occurs in 11 children in a million, so its probability is
0.000011. Four cases of neuroblastoma occurred in
Oak Park, Illinois, which had 12,429 children.
 Assuming that neuroblastoma occurs as usual, find
the mean number of cases in groups of 12,429
children.

 Mean = 12,429(0.000011) = 0.136719

 EXAMPLE B
 Find the probability that the number of
neuroblastoma cases in a group of 12,429
children is 0 or 1.
 EXAMPLE B
 Find the probability that the number of
neuroblastoma cases in a group of 12,429
children is 0 or 1.

0 −0.136719 1 −0.136719
0.136719 ∗2.71 0.136719 ∗2.71
 P(0 or 1) = 0!
+
1!

 P(0 or 1) = 0.872215 + 0.119248 = 0.9914636

 EXAMPLE B
 Find the probability that the number of
neuroblastoma cases in a group of 12,429
children is more than one.
 EXAMPLE B
 Find the probability that the number of
neuroblastoma cases in a group of 12,429
children is more than one.

 P(1+) = 1 – P(0 or 1)
 P(1+) = 1 – 0.9914
 P(1+) = 0.0086