FURTHER PROBABILITY

REVISIONS AND RANDOM

VARIABLES
By: Pablito Montes Jr
 Further Probability Revisions

We can obtain additional information by performing the experiment in second

time.

• If you can afford it, perform experiments several times.

We roll the die again and again get a 3.

P(fair) 0.50 and P(loaded) = 0.50

P(3,3| fair) = (0.166)(0.166) = 0.027
P(3,3| loaded) = (0.6)(0.6) = 0.36
 Further Probability Revisions
After the first roll of the die:

Probability the die is fair 0.22

Probability the die is loaded 0.78

After the second roll of the die:

Probability the die is fair 0.67

Probability the die is loaded 0.933

Review on Posterior Probability
 RANDOM VARIABLES

• A Random Variable assigns a real number to every possible outcome or event in

an experiment.

X= Number of refrigerators sold during the day.

Types of Random Variable

• Discrete Random Variables – can assume only a finite set of values.

• Continuous Random Variables – can assume any one of an infinite set of values.
 RANDOM VARIABLES – NUMBERS
RANGE OF RANDOM
EXPERIMENT OUTCOME RANDOM VARIABLES VARIABLES

Stock 50 Christmas trees Number of Christmas trees sold X 0,1,2,…, 50

Inspect 600 items Number of acceptable items Y 0,1,2,…, 600

Send out 5,000 sales letters Number of people responding to the Z 0,1,2,…, 5,000
letters

Build an apartment building Percent of building completed after 4 R 0 ≤ R ≤ 100

months

Test the lifetime of a bulb (minutes) Length of time the bulb lasts up to S 0 ≤ S ≤ 80,000
80,000 minutes
 RANDOM VARIABLES – NOT NUMBERS
RANGE OF RANDOM
EXPERIMENT OUTCOME RANDOM VARIABLES VARIABLES

Strongly Agree (SA) 5 if SA

Agree (A) 4 if A 1,2,3,4,5
Students response to the Neutral (N) 3 if N
questionnaires
Disagree (D) 2 if D
Strongly Disagree (SD) 1 if SD

Defective 0 if Defective 0,1

One machine is inspected Non Defective 1 if Not Defective

Good 3 if Good
Consumers respond to how they Average 2 if Average 1,2,3
like a product
Poor 1 if Poor
Thank You