BPM&APS Unit - I

BASICS PROBABILISTIC METHODS& APPLICATIONS TO POWER SYSTEMS

UNIT–I : BASICS OF PROBABILITY THEORY, DISTRIBUTION & NETWORK
MODELLING
Basic Probability Theory – Rules for Combining Probabilities of Events – Bernoulli’s Trials –
Probability Density and Distribution Functions – Binomial Distribution – Expected Value and
Standard Deviation of Binomial Distribution. Analysis of Series, Parallel, Series-Parallel
Networks – Complex Networks – Decomposition Method.
UNIT–II : RELIABILITY FUNCTIONS
Reliability Functions F(T), F(T), R(T), H(T) and Their Relationships – Exponential Distribution
– Expected Value and Standard Deviation of Exponential Distribution – Bath Tub Curve –
Reliability Analysis of Series Parallel Networks Using Exponential Distribution – Reliability
Measures MTTF, MTTR, MTBF.
UNIT–III : MARKOV MODELLING AND FREQUENCY & DURATION TECHNIQUES
Markov Chains – Concept of Stochastic Transitional Probability Matrix, Evaluation of Limiting
State Probabilities – Markov Processes One Component Repairable System – Time Dependent
Probability Evaluation Using Laplace Transform Approach – Evaluation of Limiting State
Probabilities Using Stpm – Two Component Repairable Models.
Frequency and Duration Concept – Evaluation of Frequency of Encountering State, Mean
Cycletime, For One , Two Component Repairable Models – Evaluation of Cumulative
Probability and Cumulative Frequency of Encountering of Merged States.

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B.Tech – I Semester 1
UNIT–IV : APPLICATIONS TO POWER SYSTEMS -I
Generation System Reliability Analysis: Reliability Model of a Generation System– Recursive
Relation for Unit Addition and Removal – Load Modelling - Merging of Generation Load Model
– Evaluation of Transition Rates for Merged State Model – Cumulative Probability, Cumulative
Frequency of Failure Evaluation – LOLP, LOLE, LOEE.
UNIT–V :APPLICATIONS TO POWER SYSTEMS - II
Transmission & Distribution System Reliability Analysis: System and Load Point Reliability
Indices – Weather Effects on Transmission Lines, Weighted Average Rate and Markov Model.
Basic Techniques - Radial Networks – Evaluation of Basic Reliability Indices, Performance
Indices – Load Point and System Reliability Indices – Customer Oriented, Loss and Energy
Oriented Indices -Examples.
TEXT BOOKS:
1. Reliability Evaluation of Engg. System – R. Billinton, R.N.Allan, Plenum Press, New York,
reprinted in India by B.S.Publications, 2007.
2. Reliability Evaluation of Power systems – R. Billinton, R.N.Allan, Pitman Advance
Publishing Program, New York, reprinted in India by B.S.Publications, 2007. 
REFERENCE BOOKS:
3. System Reliability Concepts by Dr.V.Sankar, Himalaya Publishing House Pvt.Ltd,, Mumbai

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The importance of reliability
Electrical, electronic and Mechanical equipment is used in a
number of fields — in industry for the control of processes, in
computers, in medical electronics, atomic energy, in weapon systems,
defence equipments, communications, navigation at sea and in the air,
and in many other fields. It is essential that this equipment should
operate reliably under all the conditions in which it is used. In the
air navigation, military and atomic energy fields, for instance, failure
could result in a dangerous situation.

Very complicated systems, involving large numbers of separate

units, such as avionic and aerospace electronic systems are coming
into use more and more. These systems are extremely complex and
use a large number of component parts. As each individual part is
liable to failure, the overall reliability will decrease unless the
reliability of each component part can be improved.

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Reliability Engineering
• Reliability engineering is an engineering field that deals with
the study, evaluation, and life-cycle management of reliability:
the ability of a system or component to perform its required
functions under stated conditions for a specified period of time

• Reliability engineering is a sub-discipline within systems

engineering. Reliability is often measured as probability of
failure, frequency of failures, or in terms of availability, a
probability derived from reliability and maintainability.
Maintainability and maintenance are often important parts of
reliability engineering.

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RELIABILITY SPECIALIZED AND APPLICATION AREAS
• Mechanical reliability
This is concerned with the reliability of mechanical
items. Many textbooks and other publications have
appeared on this topic.

Example:
 Critical mechanical component assessment
 Shaft strength
 Selection of flexible couplings and transmission brakes
 Gear life assessment; screening of belt drives
 Assessment of bearing life, load ratings of slider bearings and
shaft
sealing devices
 Bolt loading and lubrication systems

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• Software reliability.
This is an important emerging area of reliability as the use of
computers is increasing at an alarming rate.
• Human reliability.
In the past, many times systems have failed not due to technical
faults but due to human error. The first book on the topic appeared
in 1986
• Reliability optimization.
This is concerned with the reliability optimization of engineering
systems
• Reliability growth.
This is basically concerned with monitoring reliability growth of
engineering systems during their design and development
• Structural reliability.
This is concerned with the reliability of engineering structures, in
particular civil engineering

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• Power system reliability.
This is a well-developed area and is basically concerned with the
application of reliability principles to conventional power system
related problems. Many books on the subject have appeared over
the years including a vast number of other publications.
• Robot reliability and safety.
This is an emerging new area of the application of basic reliability
and safety principles to robot
associated problems.
• Life cycle costing.
This is an important subject that is directly related to reliability. In
particular, when estimating the ownership cost of the product, the
knowledge regarding its failure rate is essential.
• Maintainability.
This is closely coupled to reliability and is concerned with the
maintaining aspect of the product.
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TERMS AND DEFINITIONS
• Reliability: This is the probability that an item will carry out its
assigned mission satisfactorily for the stated time period when
used under the specified conditions.
• Failure: This is the inability of an item to function within the
initially defined guidelines.
• Downtime: This is the time period during which the item is not in
a condition to carry out its stated mission.
• Maintainability: This is the probability that a failed item will be
repaired to its satisfactory working state.

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Availability: This is the probability that an item is available for
application or use when needed.
Useful life: This is the length of time an item operates within an
acceptable level of failure rate.
Mission time: This is the time during which the item is
performing its specified operating condition.
Human error: This is the failure to perform a given task (or the
performance of a forbidden action) that could lead to disruption of
scheduled operations or result in damage to property/equipment.
Human reliability: This is the probability of completing a
job/task successfully by humans at any required stage in the
system operation within a defined minimum time limit (if the time
requirement is
specified).

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Reliability Engineering Department Responsibilities
A reliability engineering department may have various kinds of
responsibilities. However, the major ones are as follows:
• Establishing reliability policy, plans and procedures
• Reliability allocation
• Reliability prediction
• Specification and design reviews with respect to reliability
• Reliability growth monitoring
• Providing reliability related inputs to design specifications and
proposals
• Reliability demonstration
• Training reliability manpower and performing reliability-related
research and development work
• Monitoring the reliability activities of subcontractors, if any
• Auditing the reliability activities
• Failure data collection and reporting
• Failure data analysis , Consulting
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Definition of Reliability
• Reliability is the probability of a device performing its purpose
adequately for the period intended under the given operating conditions
This definition focus four important factors
 the reliability of a device is expressed as a probability
 the device is required to give required performance
 the duration of performance
 the operating conditions are prescribed.
Definition of Maintainability
Maintainability is a measure of the speed with which loss of
performance is detected, diagnosed and made good.

Maintainability is the probability that a unit or system will be

restored to specified conditions within a given period when
maintenance action is taken in accordance with prescribed
procedures and resources.
It is a characteristic of the design and installation of the
unit or system.
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Definition of Availability
Availability. Availability is defined as the percentage of time that a
system is available to perform its required function(s).

It is measured in a variety of ways, but it is principally a function of

downtime.

Availability can be used to describe a component or system but it is

most useful when describing the nature of a system of components
working together. Because it is a fraction of time spent in the
“available” state, the value can never exceed the bounds of 0 < A < 1.
Thus,
availability will most often be written as a decimal, as in 0.99999, as a
percentage, as in 99.999%,

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Basic Concepts on Probability
Probability means whether a certain event has a good chance of
occurring or not. Its value lies between 0 and 1.
This is expressed as P(A)= limn-∞ (N / n)
Where P(A) is the probability of occurrence of event A.
N is the number of times that A occurs in the n repeated
experiments.
From the definition of probability it is reasonable to assume that very
few events are associated with the extreme values of the probability
scale; most will have probability indices between these values. For such
events it follows that each will have at least two possible outcomes, one
of which can be considered as the favorable outcome or success and the
other as the unfavorable outcome or failure. For an event that has more
than two possible outcomes, it is often possible to group together those
outcomes which can be called favorable or successes and those which
can be called unfavorable or failures. Grouping outcomes in this way
and therefore creating subsets of outcomes from the complete set of
possible outcomes,
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Rules for combining probabilities
1) Independent Events:
Two events are said to be independent if the occurrence of one event
does not affect the probability of occurrence of the other event.
Example: Throwing a dice and tossing coin are independent events.
2) Mutually exclusive events:
Two events are said to be mutually exclusive or disjoint if they cannot
happen at the same time.
Example: (i) When throwing a single die, the events 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6
spots are all mutually exclusive because two or more cannot occur
simultaneously
(ii) Similarly success and failure of a device are mutually exclusive
events since they cannot occur simultaneously.

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Network modelling concepts
Series systems
The components in a set are said to be in series from a reliability point
Of view if they must all work for system success or only one needs to
fail for system failure.
Parallel systems
The components in a set are said to be in parallel from a reliability
point of view if only one needs to be working for system success or all
must Fail for system failure.
Series systems
Consider a system consisting of two independent components A and B
connected in series, from a reliability point of view, as shown in Figure
4.1. This arrangement implies that both components must work to ensure
system success. Let RA , RB = probability of successful operation of
components
A and B respectively, and QA, QB = probability of failure of components A
and B respectively. Since success and failure are mutually
exclusive and complementary,
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Parallel systems
In this case the system requirement is that only one component need be
working for system success. The system reliability can be obtained as
the complement of the system unreliability or by using Equation 2.12
since either A or B or both' constitutes success to give

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Series-parallel systems
The series and parallel systems discussed in the two previous sections
form the basis for analyzing more complicated configurations. The
general principle used is to reduce sequentially the complicated
configuration by combining appropriate series and parallel branches of
the reliability model until a single equivalent element remains. This
equivalent element then represents the reliability (or unreliability) of the
original configuration. The following examples illustrate this technique
which is generally known as a (network) reduction technique.

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Derive a general expression for the unreliability of the model shown in Figure 4.7 and hence evaluate
the unreliability of the system if all components have a reliability of 0.8.

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Tie set method
The tie set method is essentially the complement of the cut set method. It
is used less frequently, in practice, as it does not directly identify the
failure modes of the system. It has certain special applications and
therefore is discussed briefly in this section.
A tie set is a minimal path of the system and is therefore a set of system
components connected in series. Consequently, a tie set fails if anyone of
the components in it fails and this probability can be evaluated using the
principle of series systems. For the system to fail however, all of the tie
sets must fail and therefore all tie sets are effectively connected in
parallel.

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