Raised Guidance ORH Break

Taylor Moe
CRM
Date of Trade (9/23/21)
 Big Picture
• SPY had a trend-up day. We’ve been squeezing after a selloff to ~4300
support.
Intraday Fundamentals
 Technical Analysis
• I noticed a few things from the weekly chart that confirmed bullish
bias. There was a clear high volume balance area in the 245 region
this summer. This balance area was broken to the upside on higher
than average volume just 4 weeks ago. In the week prior to this
guidance bump, we had just retested the top of the balance area and
found a bid. This gave me confidence that it could now trend away
from this balance.
 Technical Analysis
• Unfortunately, I did not get filled on my support bids near 265. This
was the level that was rejected significantly in premarket before a
clear uptrend was established. Looking back, I should have had the
mid 266’s as my S1 as there was a tight consolidation here that broke
up before the open.
• After the open, a clear ORH was made at 271.21 – After it began
retracing from the lows, I was frustrated I was not in the trade, but I
knew this ORH break would be a signal that I needed to take.
• I saw the break, but I do not like to chase breakouts. I waited for
value to shift above the ORH, showing that the prices are accepted.
Then, I waited for a good r/r pullback under 272 and began to load
up.
Technical Analysis
 Reading the Tape
• There were a few key periods on the tape that were of importance…
• On the test of the ORH, there was a clear flush and rebid… I saw this, but I
was already risking nearly half of my daily stop. It clicked in my head that
this was the spot to add most of my risk.
• Second, once we began to move above the sellers in the 273-274 region, it
was very clear that buyers were in COMPLETE control on the tape. There
were periods where CRM would hold a 50cent or less range for multiple
minutes and the tape was showing clear held bids from traders with huge
size. I let my anxiety in these moments get the best of me (will explain
next slide) and continued to reduce risk rather than add, or at least hold
my current size.
 Trade Management
• I took my first entry as CRM made a higher high and value had shifted above the ORH. This entry
should have been cut underneath the tight range it was holding.
• My 2nd entries took place at the low volume area between 272 and the ORH. I knew I was only
risking about $1 from these entries, so most of my size came in here.
• I should have added in a final tier (or 2-3, TBH) after the flush and rebid of the ORH.
• I was slightly anxious in my exits for multiple reasons – CRM had several days on longer charts
that were topped out from these areas, I had a very large position size, risking nearly half of my
daily stop, and I had to leave my desk around 1pm due to a prior appointment.
• I exited the whole trade at 2ATR before I had to leave. CRM went on the next day to trade $285.
 Trade Review
• The Good
– Ability to analyze longer term chart and recognize the potential for trend.
– Recognizing the need to use a large % of my daily stop on this trade.
– Seeing key moments on the tape that were actionable moments to add or hold risk.
• The Bad
– Not being ready for the LOD trade
– Sizing in too big before a “see it” moment
– Sizing out too early: changing fundamentals + trend potential = MUST SEE
REASONS2SELL!
• Overall, I’d give this trade a C+. Although this was one of my biggest
winners of the week, my execution was subpar and these are the types of
trades that should make a month or year great, not only a week. I’m very
happy with my ability to recognize the potential, but I need to refer to
REASONS2SELL in a changing fundamentals trend-trend trade.